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mezzacyclone

Hurricane Ernesto

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Is the Saharan dust that`s put paid to pretty much every wave for the past month finally letting up?

If anything becomes of it then the strong ridge lines it up for the lesser antille`s but the continuing dry air sector suggest`s a slow burner thus far (CMC overcasting aside) although "scattered moderate/isolated convection around the circulation of the surface low" suggest an element of formation perhaps taking aboard relatively weak shear predictions and high SST`s in the pathway?

Surface analysis continue with the weak low but something interesting to keep an eye at long last?

99L

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99L has become Tropical Depression 05L, with an initial intensity of 30kts. 05L has steadily built convection around the LLC, which has become better defined today. 05L is set to enter the Caribbean and move west-northwestwards through the Caribbean. Conditions are favourable for some gradual intensification, and NHC forecast 05L to become a hurricane by day 5 as the cyclone reaches the Western Caribbean. If 05L strays too far north it runs the risk of running into higher shear or even the land mass of Hispaniola/Cuba, which will prevent 05L becoming a hurricane. But along the current track, a hurricane is a real possibility. NHC has 05L scraping by Jamaica as a hurricane, though track may change. 05L needs to be closely watched.

203638W5_NL_sm.gif

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Interesting pointers in the latest TD5 discussion

Majority of models plot a couple of hundred miles North or south of saint lucia for Friday evening but we`ll see how current moderate shear leaves TD5 fairing.

Strong heights for a Yucatan track or any enduring east coast trough (weaker ridge) for a more northern pull?

Validity in a weak Ernesto TS due to prolonged exposure to shear?

LOTS to consider and examine with more questions than answers at the mo but the latest SAL imagery shows a far better environment for the E Africa exiting waves and potential for better organised disturbance(s) down the line? (FI 228hr gfs showing deep cape verde disturbance)

addendum: Hunter aircraft runs tomorrow afternoon will give a better picture,,,

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TD5 appears to be riding out the Shear and N&W dry sectors, despite looking out of shape throughout today the latest runs show blooming vapour on the western side and more impressive is a 52 (59.8 mph) knot peak (10 sec) flight level wind which has been measured on one of the last data sets.

Swingometer points back toward a TS? ( ernesto)

21:16 update:

14.000N 55.550W

1007.6 mb 54 knot (62.1mph) peak fl lev wind, the high reduction factor from flight level to surface is the only reason NHC are holding off a TS, but for how long?

NHC PA5 imminent for ernesto!,,,

Just out

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Yep, 05L has become TS Ernesto with sustained winds of 45kts. The cyclone looked rather measly today but convection is once again on the increase. Dry air and shear have impacted the cyclone through the day but so far Ernesto has managed to fight it off. Ernesto looks like it will survive the next couple days of shear, which is then concerning because shear is much lower in the western Caribbean. The NHC intensity foecast reflects this, could have a healthy hurricane by day 5. Ernesto looks like it will move towards a break in the ridging to the north after passing Jamaica, which means it could turn towards the northwest, will Ernesto reach the Gulf? Definitely one to watch.

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Who knows what's gonna happen to this thing past day 4, could stay minimal or become a fairly healthy system! First potential big problem of the season me thinks.

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I'm just south of Cancun on holiday at the moment, looks like Ernesto possibly could affect this area around Tue/Wed but luckily I leave this Saturday.

The weather the past 2 weeks here has been unusually sunnier than normal, with it being a fairly tropical climate, I visited same area last year which was a fair bit wetter, so it seems about right that something big is about to come.

Hopefully the storm if it hits won't cause too much damage, the last major hurricane in the area wiped out the reef in Riviera Maya and pretty much ruined the beaches... Cancun has a insanely beautiful beach and it would be a shame if it were to be ruined!!

Early days yet mind but one to watch

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TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012

500 AM AST FRI AUG 03 2012

ERNESTO HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.

APART FROM A COUPLE OF BRIEF CONVECTIVE BURSTS...CLOUD TOPS HAVE

WARMED AND SHRUNK AROUND THE CENTER OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...DATA

FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT

WINDS ARE NOT MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE VERY EFFECTIVELY...WHICH

IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LACKLUSTER CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. THE INITIAL

INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT...AND THAT COULD BE SOMEWHAT GENEROUS

GIVEN THAT THE HIGHEST 850-MB WINDS FROM THE AIRCRAFT WERE AROUND

45 KT.

THE RAPID WESTWARD MOTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS RESULTING IN

DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND 20 KT AS ANALYZED BY UW-CIMSS AND THE

SHIPS MODEL. GIVEN THIS...AND THE SOMEWHAT DRY AIR SEEN IN UPSTREAM

SOUNDINGS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...ONLY MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS

EXPECTED IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. BEYOND THAT TIME...CONDITIONS

APPEAR TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION AS THE SHEAR

DECREASES WHILE ERNESTO MOVES OVER WARMER WATERS. HOWEVER...GIVEN

THE CURRENT STRUCTURAL CHALLENGES OF THE CYCLONE AND THE POTENTIAL

FOR LAND INTERACTION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL REMAIN

CONSERVATIVE. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS

ONE...AND IS BETWEEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS AND

THE IV15 CONSENSUS THAT INCLUDES THE HFIP GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/21...AS ERNESTO IS BEING STEERED

RAPIDLY WESTWARD BY THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. THIS

RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BUILD WESTWARD FOR THE

NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A CONTINUED WESTWARD

MOTION OF THE CYCLONE. AFTER 72 HOURS...THE MODELS SHOW A

WEAKNESS DEVELOPING IN THE RIDGE AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES

INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A SLOWER

WEST-NORTHWARD MOTION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THERE CONTINUES TO

BE CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...WITH

THE ECMWF SHOWING A WEAKER SYSTEM MOVING WESTWARD AND THE STRONGER

GFDL TURNING ERNESTO MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. DUE TO THE INITIAL

MOTION...THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS

ADVISORY THROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE NHC FORECAST IS

LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE OF

THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE TVCA/TV15 MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

GIVEN THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD AND THE DEPENDENCE OF THE TRACK ON THE

FUTURE INTENSITY OF THE CYCLONE...CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST

LATE IN THE PERIOD IS LOWER THAN USUAL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 13.5N 60.7W 40 KT 45 MPH

12H 03/1800Z 14.0N 63.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

24H 04/0600Z 14.4N 66.7W 50 KT 60 MPH

36H 04/1800Z 14.9N 69.7W 55 KT 65 MPH

48H 05/0600Z 15.6N 72.8W 60 KT 70 MPH

72H 06/0600Z 17.0N 78.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

96H 07/0600Z 18.5N 82.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

120H 08/0600Z 20.5N 86.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$

FORECASTER BRENNAN

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Circulation is clear and the last image loops seem to show flaring on the west side, certainly gaining in size if still less clearly defined?

Recon has been put back 4 hrs until 11pm BST so we`ll see later tonight,,,

Interestingly, 91L, which gfs had high hopes for, is showing good stature south of cape verde islands so if this holds up we could well have another dedicated thread for Florence?

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Ernesto is doing a good job of fighting off the dry air and shear so far, convection has made a comeback this evening with some pretty cold cloud tops near the LLC. Intensity has remained a steady 45kts. Looks increasingly likely now that Ernesto will be a hurricane as it moves through the much more favourable western Caribbean.

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Upper high developing over the system which is leading to very good outflow, it's got all the signs of being a biggie. The track by most of the models take him on a very westward track, which a long yucatan pass, followed by a short trip in the boc.

I see that the Nhc are not going with this though and I can totally believe them, storms from here have a habit of moving further northwards on the recurve meaning a gom entry, maybe not quite al la gfdl with it's cat 5 monster' but it can't be discounted.

The globals such as ECM seem to virtually kill it within 72hrs which isnt very likely.

ATM earnie has the classic look of a large developing ts which is still getting its centre developed but it's one to watch for sure. Within 48 hrs the models should have a better grasp and will be worth looking seriously at.

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models still dire with ernesto (as it clueless without a good handle). His appearence is getting better by the hour, both in terms of deeper convection, outflow and inflow. Path is still highly uncertain as still no real reason why the models try to kill ernesto off in 72 hrs time...

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Hey guys, I'm in riviera maya Mexico ATM. Will be watching this closely. Joked about a storm chaser going to Mexico in hurricane season n now this guy has shown up. What are the chances!?! Lol

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For mexico it has as good as chance as any place atm. Personally I think it might go further north, but its highly highly uncertain, the whole east coast of Mexico is still a possibility.

NHC have updated and recon found much lower winds than it was thought and much higher pressure.

However their is a big caveat, when recon was first in it was struggling to find winds of 35-40kt at flight, as the mission went on this got higher and higher, as it was leaving recon recorded a surface wind estimate of 50kts with a flight of just under 50kts. When recon was first in Ernesto also seemed to have swollowed a gulp of dry air when it was developing banding feature, the last few sat stills when recon was leaving indicated that this dry air (at whatever level it was present) has well and truely gone, the cdo has firmed up and cloud tops of -70 were evident again in the centre of the cdo. Sat presentation is still very impressive with outflow and inflow added by the upper high.

With all of this info i think that RI is happening and a hurricane tomorrow morning is a possibility. Just to clarify this is not forecast by the nhc so take it with a pinch of salt its just my interpretation.

Models are still appaling with GFS barely initialising the system, ecm a little better.

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Some bizarre output tonight....GFDL even takes this to an open wave this time tomorrow and forecasts that the system will totally die before being reborn in the GOM.

However SHIPS et al at the same time as it has a hurricane.

Never seen this kind of disagreement at this close range. However looking at it on sat I just can't trust any of the models nor believe they have a handle on him

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Latest nhc discussion. pretty much confirms initial thoughts.

"A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE EARLIER THIS MORNING FOUND A WEAKER

CYCLONE...BUT DURING THE LAST PASS THROUGH THE CENTER AROUND

NOON...THE PLANE REPORTED THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD DROPPED TO

1004 MB FROM 1008 MB...AND FOUND A BETTER DEFINED CIRCULATION

CENTER. SINCE THAT TIME...THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS CONTINUED

TO INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION. THE CENTER IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A

CIRCULAR AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...AND THE OUTFLOW IS WELL

ESTABLISHED WHICH IS NOT COMMON FOR A CYCLONE IN THE CENTRAL

CARIBBEAN. T-NUMBERS WERE 3.5 AND 3.0 AT 1800 UTC...AND OBJECTIVE

NUMBERS HAVE REACHED 4.3 ON THE DVORAK SCALE DURING THE PAST HOUR.

ON THIS BASIS...THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN CONSERVATIVELY BEEN ADJUSTED

UPWARD TO 50 KNOTS. HOWEVER... GIVEN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION...

THE NEXT RECONNAISSANCE PLANE COULD FIND STRONGER WINDS.

AS INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...I DO NOT HAVE ANY REASONS TO

FORECAST WEAKENING AS SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS PREDICT...

INCLUDING THE HWRF AND THE GFDL. THE SHEAR IS LOW AHEAD OF THE

CYCLONE AND ERNESTO WILL MOVE OVER AN OCEAN WITH HIGHER HEAT

CONTENT. GIVEN SUCH CONDITIONS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR

ERNESTO TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AS SUGGESTED

BY THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS."

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certainly a strange storm with great outflow and strong winds but high pressure. having looked at the data it appears that the high speed has increased relative shear and tilted the low and mid level vortexes allowing pressure leakage. this storm should strengthen but only as it slows.

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Totally agree +1 for the models who forecasted this, for the life of me I can't see how the models could possible have taken these factors into account but somehow they did.

There is now no llcc IMHO lots of moisture though.

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Ernesto has slowed to a more normal 12mph and has strengthened to 50mph at 1003mb.

Sadly the quick forward motion means that Ernesto will make landfall quite far south and barely make it out to sea past the Yukatan however it will be approaching Hurricane strength.

On the whole a big letdown baring a lot more northward movement.

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Actually looking at her now i would say she could easily be at 60mph+, i will call it and say that she could hit Belize as a strong category 1/weak category 2 hurricane.

wv0.jpg

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Holy crap - Major Update.

Ernesto is now vertically stacked and undergoing rapid intensification, flight is in now and has found a 994mb centre, maximum gusts of 88mph and a rapidly organizing 6 mile wide eye and 77 knot FL winds right under the convection.

Next update will likely have a 65mph TS and the one after a category 1 hurricane.

Good news is that there does seem to be northward movement, now at 15N.

Also down to 8mph.

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THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE EAST

COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO PUNTA

ALLEN...AND HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM NORTH OF PUNTA

ALLEN TO TULUM. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ALSO ISSUED A

TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF TULUM TO CHETUMAL.

THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE

COAST OF BELIZE.

Forget me calling it a letdown, this storm seems to be pretty good now.

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