Typhoon Saola

[Somerset Squall]

The tenth tropical depression of the West Pacific season has formed. Expected to move to the north whilst remaining east of the Philippines.

From JTWC:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING NR 001

01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

---

WARNING POSITION:

280000Z --- NEAR 14.4N 127.1E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 09 KTS

POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM

POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REPEAT POSIT: 14.4N 127.1E

---

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

281200Z --- 15.6N 126.4E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS

---

24 HRS, VALID AT:

290000Z --- 16.7N 125.6E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS

---

36 HRS, VALID AT:

291200Z --- 17.4N 125.2E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS

---

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

48 HRS, VALID AT:

300000Z --- 18.3N 124.9E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 04 KTS

---

72 HRS, VALID AT:

310000Z --- 19.8N 124.4E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS

---

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

---

96 HRS, VALID AT:

010000Z --- 21.5N 123.4E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS

---

120 HRS, VALID AT:

020000Z --- 23.5N 121.9E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

---

REMARKS:

280300Z POSITION NEAR 14.7N 126.9E.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 10W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM EAST OF

MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS DURING

THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 8

FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z, 281500Z, 282100Z AND 290300Z.

THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN

PEARL HARBOR HI 271351Z JUL 12 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT

(WTPN22 PGTW 271400).//

[Somerset Squall]

Tropical Depression 10W has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Saola, with sustained winds now at 40kts. Saola is a very large and broad tropical storm with wide bands flanking the LLC which has a smaller central dense overcast covering it. With low shear and warm sea temps expected to persist along track, Saola should at least slowly intensify. The north-northwestward motion is expected to persist for the next couple days followed by a turn to the west as ridging builds to the north. This means, on the current track forecast, that Saola will make landfall in Taiwan. Either way, even if there isn't a direct landfall, Saola is so broad it is likely to bring significant weather impacts to the Philippines and Taiwan over the coming days.

[Somerset Squall]

Saola has strengthened to 55kts as it slowly moves north-northwestwards east of Luzon. The storm has good banding features flanking the central convection. Saola is expected to become a typhoon in the next 12hrs. JTWC expect a peak of 100kts as Saola gets close to or makes landfall on the northern half of Taiwan, which is of course not good news. Ridging to the north is expected to build after landfall on Taiwan, forcing Saola to the west for a potential second landfall, this time on the east coast of China. Saola should have lost a little intensity by then due to land interaction with Taiwan, but could still be a typhoon at this stage.

[Somerset Squall]

Saola has developed a large eye and intensity has risen to 65kts, making Saola a category 1 typhoon on the SS scale. Saola should continue to strengthen. The seperation distance of Saola from TS Damrey to the north will decrease markedly as both storms approach eastern China but Damrey will not affect Saola significantly. Saola is still expected to brush northern Taiwan as a 100kt+ typhoon in around 48hrs time. Already the outer bands are unleashing heavy rains over Taiwan along with some torrential rains over Luzon.

[Coast]

BEIJING, July 30 (Xinhuanet) -- At 6:00 a.m. today, typhoon Saola was centered about 410 km southeast of Hualian, Taiwan province with maximum wind force up to scale 12 near its center.

Saola is forecasted to move north by west at speed of 5-10 km per hour with gaining intensity approaching eastern Taiwan gradually.

Affected by the typhoon, in the next 24 hours from 8:00 a.m. today, there will be gale with force scale up to 8-10 affecting east of Taiwan. Maximum wind force will occur up to scale 11-14 and gust up to 15-16 near its center. And high wind with scale 7-8 and gust up to scale 9-11 is forecasted to happen in Bashi Channel, Balintang Channel, Taiwan Straits, eastern and southern South China Sea, southern East China Sea, Taiwan coast, and coastal Fujian. Taiwan will be hit by heavy rain or rainstorm and isolated severe rainstorm.

At the same time, the 10th tropical storm Damrey has increased into a seere tropical storm in this morning. At 5:00 a.m. today it was centered about 860 km south by east of Tokyo, Japan with maximum wind force up to scale 10. It is forecasted to move west by north at speed of 30 km per hour with gaining intensity. In the coming 24 hours it will not affect off shore of China.

http://news.xinhuane...c_131749867.htm

[Somerset Squall]

The track forecast has shifted the the right and no longer indicates landfall on Taiwan. This doesn't mean that Taiwan is out of the woods as the large Saola will still bring damaging winds and heavy rains as Coasts's post describes, but it does mean Saola will be stronger on landfall in Eastern China as Taiwan is no longer expected to disrupt Saola's circulation:

[Coast]

Typhoon 10W (Saola) # 5 supplemental; Tropical Storm 11W (Damrey) # 4

Published: July 31, 2012 5:45 p.m. Tuesday, July 31, Japan time: Saola has been upgraded to a Category 1-equivalent typhoon by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

Its path continues to be wobbly and slow, almost due north at 6 mph, and its forecast track now takes it just under 300 miles west-southwest of Okinawa at 3 p.m. Thursday, and almost directly over the Ishigaki island group to Okinawa’s southwest.

Maximum winds now forecast for 110-mph sustained and 132-mph gusts at its center Thursday into Friday. Landfall is forecast for 3 p.m. Friday about 150 miles south of Shanghai. And it looks as if Taipei might be spared Saola’s wrath; forecasts call for it to swirl 90 miles northeast of Taipei, outside its 64-mph and 50-mph wind bands.

Damrey is forecast by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center to top out at 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts at its center around mid-evening Wednesday. At 4 p.m., it was 680 miles east-northeast of Okinawa but barreling west-northwest at a good clip, 23 mph. It’s forecast to barrel 175 miles south of Sasebo and 295 miles north of Okinawa between 9 and 10 p.m. Wednesday.

What does that mean for Sasebo?

Base’s weather web page calls for winds increasing starting this evening, topping out between 25 and 30 mph with 45-mph gusts Wednesday evening and Thursday morning, decreasing to 15 to 20 mph with 30-mph gusts later in the morning. Look for rainshowers and isolated thunderstorms as well; much of Damrey’s wrath is to the north of its center.

As for Tropical Storm Saola, it remains to Okinawa’s southwest, 415 miles, and is forecast to pass 360 miles west-southwest at high noon Thursday. Its fiercest winds should remain well west, topping out at 115-mph sustained and 145-mph gusts as it rumbles just northeast of Taipei at 11 p.m. Thursday.

Rainshowers and isolated thunderstorms are in the offing for Okinawa through the rest of the week. Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight extended forecast calls for plenty of wet stuff with 30-mph winds and 40-mph gusts periodically through Friday, with partly cloudy skies settling in on Saturday.

Though these winds aren’t forecast to be typhoon strength, loose objects can become projectiles when subject to these types of winds for extended periods. Prudent to do a general cleaning up around home and office as these winds start to pick up. Power outages are also possible. Always better to be safe than sorry.

http://www.stripes.com/blogs/pacific-storm-tracker/pacific-storm-tracker-1.106563/typhoon-10w-saola-5-supplemental-tropical-storm-11w-damrey-4-1.184441

[Somerset Squall]

Saola maintains a large eye and has only intensified by 10kts over the last 24hrs, to 75kts. Saola is crawling towards the north-northwest in a weak steering environment but track speeds should pick up when Saola moves to the northeast of Taiwan as the same ridge that is steering TS Damrey to the north exerts it's influence. Taiwan and eastern China are still in danger as Saola is still expected to be a 100kt+ typhoon in the vicinity. Luzon aswell is still experiencing flooding rains from a loosely related convective mass being pulled towards Saola's southwest side.

[Somerset Squall]

Saola has strengthened further and now has sustained winds of 90kts. The typhoon is lashing Taiwan at present with damaging winds and torrential rains as it makes it's closest approach.

[Somerset Squall]

Saola has jogged to the west and as a result, is making landfall on northeastern Taiwan. This is a departure from the previous forecast, but more akin to the initial forecasts. Saola has weakened to 85kts but is still unleashing copious amounts of rain on Taiwan, along with damaging winds in the northeast of the country.

[Somerset Squall]

Saola has very slowly crossed Taiwan and has now emerged into the Taiwan Strait. Intensity has fallen to 45kts, but despite this, Saola is still a significant threat. Very heavy rains are still plaguing Taiwan and are spreading into China. Saola is not far away from it's second landfall, this time in SE China.

[Somerset Squall]

Saola has moved well inland and is dissipating. The typhoon is thought to have killed 44 people (and a further 2 were killed in China by Typhoon Damrey).

http://www.thehindu.com/news/international/article3722570.ece