August CET Watch

[summer blizzard]

16C to the 8th.

[summer blizzard]

16.2C to the 9th.

[reef]

It has been a strange first third of the month, whats notable is how low minimum temperatures have been. The mean min for the first 10 days on Hadley is 11.98C, which is actually rather cool for early-August. Its suprising we arent higher as we've not been under the influence of any particularly cool upper air and had a trough to the west dragging in southerlies or south-westerlies.

So far its been similar to August 2005, with decent maxima offset by cool minima, though in that month it came from a very different pattern.

[summer blizzard]

It has been a strange first third of the month, whats notable is how low minimum temperatures have been. The mean min for the first 10 days on Hadley is 11.98C, which is actually rather cool for early-August. Its suprising we arent higher as we've not been under the influence of any particularly cool upper air and had a trough to the west dragging in southerlies or south-westerlies.

So far its been similar to August 2005, with decent maxima offset by cool minima, though in that month it came from a very different pattern.

Whilst the upper air is not cold per say we are close to the thermal maximum and as a result the average upper air value is around 10C.

[Kentish Man]

Hadley update shows 16.6C (Aug 1 - 11).

[Milhouse]

Hadley update shows 16.6C (Aug 1 - 11).

I can only see further small rises through the coming week with night time minima remaining high. Then a decent increase to come next weekend with the possible plume. Low 17s by the end of the weekend (19th) if the plume occurrs.

[summer blizzard]

Whilst i certainly cannot see us breaching the 17.8 from 2004 it does look warm for the next week.

[TonyH]

A warm finish almost assured it would seem.

[Scorcher]

I don't think beating 2004 is beyond the realms of possibility with such consistently warm air shown by the models. I think it's looking likely that it will at least be the warmest since 2004, however. Then again that wouldn't be that difficult given we've had such a long run without a warm August.

[Backtrack]

A westward shift in the positioning of the impending Azores ridge would boost the CET right up, as the very hot temperatures will be covering most of England & Wales, with London & the SE seeing possible 35C+?

[AderynCoch]

So there goes my guess by the looks of things (15.5), but I'm more than happy with the trade-off that we finally have an August putting up a real fight. It will be hard for the second half of the month to be as warm as the first though (August shows a daily cooling trend between July and September).

[Methuselah]

And after spending all of last month willing the CET up to 16.1... I give up!

[Scorcher]

It will be hard for the second half of the month to be as warm as the first though (August shows a daily cooling trend between July and September).

That's only on average though, it doesn't mean a great deal in reality. The second half of August can quite easily be warmer than the first, and I'm sure it has happened countless times in the past. Just as it's reasonably common for the second half of May to be cooler than the first. The potential is still there for hot conditions right through August and into September, it's just about whether we get the right setups or not.

[AderynCoch]

True, but if the CET is running close to 17C by mid-month it will hard to achieve.

Edited August 13, 2012 by AderynCoch

[Milhouse]

16.9c to the 13th

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

[reef]

I wont be suprised if we're in the high 17s by the 20th at this rate, maxima look to be very high later in the week but minima look exceptionally warm too.

[damianslaw]

Increasingly looking like we should see our warmest August since at least 2004, but beating 2003 is preety much out of the question. I suspect we will see a finish in the high 17's, we could get into the low 18's next week before a cooldown at the end of the month. However, if the current synoptics hold sway then low 18's certainly not out of the question. I did say August would be our warmest month, but I'm surprised at how warm it has been and is looking, high minima has certainly helped. This month is reminding me of a less wet version of 1994, 1997 and 2004. Overall summer 2012 must surely go down as one of the most unsettled in a long time.

[reef]

Hadley is on 17.0C to the 14th. Yesterday was 19.4C.

Today will be another warm day as the minima is down as 15.8C and maxima are pretty high in eastern areas.

[Scorcher]

That's the warmest value we've seen for some time, it's been quite a while since I saw a monthly value of 17C and it looks like the only way is up over the next 5 days or so.

[BornFromTheVoid]

17.1C to the 15th

http://www.metoffice..._info_mean.html

Yesterday was 18.5C. Minimum today is 14.6C while maxima are around 22C, so 17.2C tomorrow looks likely.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at

17.3C to the 17th (19.2)

17.5C to the 18th (20.5)

17.7C to the 19th (21.6)

17.8C to the 20th (20.0)

17.8C to the 21st (18.2)

17.8C to the 22nd (16.7)

17.7C to the 23rd (16.3)

[reef]

Hadley is 17.2C to the 16th, yesterday was slightly cooler than expected at 18.0C.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_est_2012

[Lettucing Gutted]

Another noticeable feature about this August is that even with a CET below 18C it will still be in the top 25 of warmest Augusts on record. A big turnaround from this June and July and the near average/cool run of Augusts we saw from 2005 through 2011. It has also been one of the most southwesterly Augusts on record.

Edited August 18, 2012 by Craig Evans

[summer blizzard]

17.4C to the 18th.

Looks to me like a downward trend from tommorow so a finish below 17C looks odds on in my opinion.

[Relativistic]

17.4C to the 18th.

Looks to me like a downward trend from tommorow so a finish below 17C looks odds on in my opinion.

Yes I agree. I think the anomaly could end up sub 1C, somewhere around 0.9C.

[Robbie Garrett]

Could it be the first time I am right? hah!