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Summer Sun

August CET Watch

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Well August is almost here the final official summer month according to the met office, I can't remember a decent August since 2003, will this year finally deliver and make up for an awful summer or will August follow from previous years and be wet, cloudy and often quite cool.

August 2011

It was the coolest August since 1993 across Scotland and Northern Ireland, but similar to August 2010 across England and Wales.

The rainfall pattern was highly variable, with over twice the average amount in the eastern half of Scotland and in north-east England and about 150% of average across central southern England.

In contrast, parts of Northern Ireland, Wales and the Midlands were drier than average, with less than 50% of normal in the west Midlands. It was a rather dull month in all areas, with sunshine totals typically about 75% of normal.

A maximum temperature of 30.3°C was recorded at Gravesend (Kent) on the 3rd. A minimum temperature of 1.4°C was recorded at Loch Glascarnoch (Highland) early on the 25th

Heavy rainfall on the 6th resulted in localised flooding of roads and homes in parts of County Durham and Northumberland. This included, Darlington, Durham, Consett and parts of Northumberland

For August my CET guess is 16.5c

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Once again i expect cool and unsettled weather to be dominant (though drier than June and July).

15.5C for me, 1C below the 1981-2010 average.

This will be the seventh summer month below average in a row.

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Going to disagree wildly with the above 2.

Unsettled first week, followed by a great month, high pressure centered to the East of the UK, settled, hot at times.

18.3C.

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I did say August would nudge July as the warmest month of the year but only just... I'll be sticking with my slightly below average prediction, but I'll wait until the weekend before I confirm this.

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20.5c. Just a wild guess I'm afraid.

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20.5c. Just a wild guess I'm afraid.

Blimey!! You've gone higher than Craig Evans!

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Here are some averages and extremes for your interest:

August CET averages and extremes

(all of these are mean daily values, the average of daily max and min)

24.9 ... warmest August day (1st, 1995)

19.2 ... warmest August, 1995

18.9 ... second warmest August, 1997

18.7 ... third warmest August, 1975

18.3 ... warmest August before 1900 (1747)

16.4 ... average of 1981-2010, also for 2001-2011

16.2 ... average of 1971-2000

15.8 ... average of 1961-1990, and 1701-1800, and 1901-2000

15.6 ... average of 1659-2011

15.4 ... average of 1801-1900

15.1 ... average of 1659-1700

13.7 ... coldest August since 1956 (1986)

13.5 ... coldest August since 1912 (1956)

13.0 ... second coldest Augusts (tie) (1694,95)

12.9 ... coldest August, 1912

9.5 ... coldest day to 16th (16th, 1888) ... earliest sub-10 value in August

8.8 ... coldest August day (26th, 1864) ... although it was 7.1 C on 1 Sept of 1816

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Sticking with my original thoughts at the end of June that August will be our warmest month of the year, but only slightly warmer than July, I'm going with 16 degrees - ever slightly just below average.

The opening few days look cool/average at best, and traditionally the first 2 weeks of August are much warmer than the second half of the month, often delivering the warmest weather of the summer thanks to very mild nights at this time of year.

I suspect there will be a marked NW-SE split compared to June and July, with the NW much wetter than the SE and conversely much duller and cooler. A typical August in this sense. I never rate August, in my opinion I always rate it far below May, June and July. Yes it can easily bring the warmest weather of any month, but very rarely is it settled throughout, indeed Feb and March are more likely to deliver a lengthy dry settled spell.

We've had 8 poor/average Augusts on the trot, can't see August 2012 bucking the trend.

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