Model Output Discussion 22/07/12 Onwards.

[Bobby]

Crazy temperatures in Greenland in this week, 20c+ in places, that's warmer than it's been here most of summer.

Resulting from some impressive WAA (warm air advection) from that low near Newfoundland, reinforcing blocking over Greenland ultimately helping to keep things unsettled for us

Edited July 23, 2012 by Barb-

[WheresTheSnow]

As the models seem to be agreeing on unsettled weather for next week, you would've thought BBC weather forecasts would be a bit more specific, Saturday still shows a possible maxiumum of 26C, and a minimum of 10C.

[Andy Bown]

As the models seem to be agreeing on unsettled weather for next week, you would've thought BBC weather forecasts would be a bit more specific, Saturday still shows a possible maxiumum of 26C, and a minimum of 10C.

It's perfectly plausible that those temperatures can occur even if it does turn unsettled, there will be a lot of heat building up during the next 4 days and, with

the ground so warm, it wouldn't take much sunshine to lift the maximum to such levels.

[legritter]

dont forget that any data the bbc gets comes from met of and that comes from sources that do not always want to give out too much information . all this information at times of importance ie security etc etc , will sometimes have to wait till nearer the time . but we still have a vast load of information . certainly looking at the moment that things could be ,becoming slow moving over weekend . who knows which way the wind will be blowing ,regards legritter .

[johnholmes]

legritter!

where on earth do you get the idea that security will cause the Met O not to give out much weather information?

That really is a load of rubbish sorry to say this but its true .

The ONLY reason the BBC and Met are reluctant to give much detail is that its very far from clear just what the weather will be for the opening ceremony.

Come on get real mate.

[phil nw.]

Well the NAEFS sums it up

+168

+264 etc

Big Greenland high, troughing limpeted to the UK, as it as been since April.

There was never any signal shown by the NAEFS and ensembles of a prolonged settled spell.

Yes indeed Barb i am becoming a bit of a follower of the NAEF`s outputs too.

They have been consistent in showing the return of the NW Europen toughing and those heights towards S.Greenland.

I notice last nights NOAA 8-14 day anomls are drifting that way too.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

Take those along with the 00z ens and it`s all pointing to much cooler and unsettled period from the weekend into the following week.

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html

Certainly no good news for those looking for an extension to this current warm and sunny spell.

[johnholmes]

Well the NAEFS sums it up

hi Barb

I cannot find my link to the site you use-could you possibly give me the link please?

many thanks

John

[Cheese Rice]

Looking at the last four runs of GFS ensembles for London, there is a consistent theme of a significantly wide range of scatter from the members with respect to this weekend and beyond (in comparison to the ensemble mean, control and op).

I do not think that any outcome is a certainty at the moment, though rain and lower temperatures will prevail for a time there are definite question marks as to what the ultimate evolution will be over the next two weeks.

It's not an evolution if it takes several pattern changes to get there!

The evolution of the current pattern is height rises to our North East and West out in the Atlantic while the low currently far out over Iceland tracks South East over the UK. The high essentially fills over the top and we are left with a cool, wet pattern, large amounts of cloud and slow moving fronts.

The only silver lining I can see is the low becoming weaker, the chance of a more brighter showery flow, even then temperatures rising to average at best.

Edited July 23, 2012 by Cheese Rice

[phil nw.]

hi Barb

I cannot find my link to the site you use-could you possibly give me the link please?

many thanks

John

If i can step in here John as i just replied to Barb`s post about this.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/naefs_cartes.php?ech=0&code=0&mode=0

Or go on Meteoceil/Ensembles/Pressure Ens/ NAEFs

Regards,Phil

[Bobby]

hi Barb

I cannot find my link to the site you use-could you possibly give me the link please?

many thanks

John

Here:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/naefs_cartes.php?ech=0&code=0&mode=0

[legritter]

i think iv just made a big booby , I TAKE WHAT JOHN HOLMES SAYS ABOUT MY POST SERIOUSLY and apologise if iv said the wrong thing . i should not have gone down that road .got a bit carried away . and yes you are right that fridays forecast is still a long way away regards synoptics for friday /sat . but things will be getting interesting for this weekend , off to find some old roy /marine photos of my squad as iv got some relatives coming over for olympics ,tonights fax will give us a good update as more of the human touch

[johnholmes]

not to worry leg' we all know you are an enthusiast

many thanks to Barb and Phil for the links

Edited July 23, 2012 by johnholmes

[Alex]

The GFS is looking far far better for the Olympics, ok not completely dry or hot but a alot drier run with the Azores ridge linking up with the Russian one and pushing that trough further north with time. This is definately a trend we want to see if we are to continue with something better than recent weeks and allow more enjoyable weather during the upcoming big event!

Ps I would tend to discard anything past 1st August, completely different to the 06z!

Edited July 23, 2012 by Alex

[Summer Sun]

UKMO doesn't look inspiring tonight

[danm]

UKMO doesn't look inspiring tonight

Yes, although there are signs of the Azores high ridging back into the far south by Sunday.

[nick sussex]

Did anyone notice that gap in the precip over London at 8pm on Friday?

Miracle dry gap all systems go! Could we get lucky?

Overall the UKMO and GFS look less than convincing , the UKMO in particular goes shortwave crazy at 144hrs to the west of the UK.

Looking at the GEFS ensembles they have toned down the precip amounts for London for Friday, quite a few do have that miracle dry gap. It really is touch and go, the timing of the front moving se is still open for revision and those thunderstorms over France do get quite close to the se.

I think we won't know till 24hrs out so until then just keep our fingers crossed, in terms of the medium term although we do look to have troughing near the UK, the flow looks quite slack and in any sunshine it won't feel too bad.

Of course you do end up with slow moving showers but equally some places may get lucky with decent drier interludes.

Edited July 23, 2012 by nick sussex

[PubliusEnigma]

Quite like the 00z ECM op and with some limited support from the ensemble mean as a 'blueprint' for where we go next week on.

Contextually, angular momentum is steadily rising and the GWO responding with the largest Asian mountain torque for some considerable time. That puts us towards a phase 3/4 type evolution, potentially phase 5 if we continue to see some propagation of westerly winds poleward.

Clearly, next week looks unsettled with cool and showery the order of the day as the longwave trough digs southward and begins to close off over NW Europe.

If we are heading towards a phase 3-4-5 type state (main body of tropical convection in the western Pacific and eastern Indian Ocean), should be looking for both height rises over Scandinavia (that's the interesting part as by and large this summer we've had a definate trough in place) and the ridge to our west still persisting. Hence why the ECM looks plausible.

If this evolution continues, I think we could start to focus on the ridge to the west giving way for hight rises to our NE and E which opens up the potential for a very topsy turvy August - cooler and unsettled to start, warm and sunny to finish ?

Is this a changed prognosis from your earlier thoughts some days back of the mean atlantic ridge edging slowly east in early august, whereby the mean ridge lies across the British Isles. My thoughts are that as the Summer Greenland high fades in autumn as the atlantic charges up, we well see a Euro High close to southern Scandinavia build feeding in some unusually warm weather from the second week of September or thereabouts.

[PubliusEnigma]

Hirlam Fax gives a different take on things come Thursday, that looks hot and sticky..

[Panayiotis]

Hirlam Fax gives a different take on things come Thursday, that looks hot and sticky..

sorry, im just starting to understand the weather, but could you explain why this will bring hot and sticky conditions?

Thanks

[PubliusEnigma]

I still think this is the most plausible outcome. A dryish cold front coming south on Friday reaching London during the evening, with the wind picking

up and becoming a gusty westerly, some cloud with possible showery burst of rain time the back edge arrives. I think the French storms will be tracking

NE as per the diagrams shearing NW towards the UK. Possibly some Kent clippers, and certainly visible from the coast after dark.

sorry, im just starting to understand the weather, but could you explain why this will bring hot and sticky conditions?

Thanks

In very simple terms the air is drifting in from a hot continent also with warm air at higher altitude. Humidity is likely

to increase as the days go by. Hence the term hot and sticky.

[Panayiotis]

Thank you very much for explaining this, i completely now understand!

[A Winter's Tale]

Hello there.

It's been a spectacular summer day for much of England and Wales with warm-hot temperatures and glorious sunshine without a cloud a sky. For much of Ireland and Scotland a band of rain has made for a miserable day of weather here but northern areas of Scotland have been drier and see some sunshine. But what can we expect next?

Through the rest of the evening and throughout the night, the rain should continue over Ireland, Southern/Central Scotland and North West England but it should temporarily move a little further south and become lighter and patchier. The north of Scotland could have a night of clear skies away from the cloudier the west coast but the best of clear skies overnight in the British Isles should be the majority of England and Wales. A mild night too with lows of 13-18C. Early tomorrow morning should continue to see rain and cloud cover over Ireland, Northern England and Southern Scotland whilst the far north and England/Wales enjoys early sunshine. The rain once more should gather in intensity as the morning goes on and some heavy rain is expected over Central areas of Ireland and Southern Scotland with overcast skies in the far west of Wales, northern England and much of Scotland. Into the afternoon, the rain should lose its intensity and begin to break up but again the north of England and much of Ireland and Scotland should remain overcast although NI and northern Scotland should see sunshine. In these areas, temperatures should be cooler at around 13-18C but warmer in northern England. 25-30C should be the maximum temperatures for much of England and Wales and warm temperatures should continue well into the evening. As the light and patchy rain becomes confined to the far south of Scotland and Northern England there could be some evening sunshine in many areas in Scotland and also Ireland may see some sunshine. But northern England should hold onto the overcast skies. Tuesday night should be dry other than a few local showers and the majority of the cloud cover will again be in the north and west but Wales and southern England again should have clear skies. Cool in the north with lows of 11-13C but very mild in the south with lows of 15-20C.

There'll be plentiful amounts of sunshine for many on Wednesday as again the southern third of England should enjoy another glorious day and Northern Ireland and Scotland should have a much better day with lots of sunshine. Southern Ireland, Wales and northern/central England may continue to be stubornly overcast with some light rain in places. Maximum temperatures across the British Isles should be 17-30C. Wednesday night continue in a similar vein with clear skies in Scotland, NI and southern England and some rain and overcast skies in northern England and Wales. Overnight lows of 11-17C.

Thursday also looks like a similar picture to Wednesday with much of Scotland, NI and southern England enjoying sunshine and there may be more widespread and heavier rainfall across Northern England with cloud into southern Scotland and Ireland and Wales. Maximum temperatures of 17-30C. Rain should move in NW Scotland and NI on Thursday night and the rain in northern England should fade away. Eastern and southern Scotland and southern England again could be in for another night of clear skies. Minimum temperatures of 12-16C.

Friday looks like being a day of showers over Ireland and in particular Scotland with just a few in England and Wales. There'll be more cloud about in Ireland and Scotland but sunshine is likely at times in southern and eastern Scotland and southern Ireland whereas Northern and southern England look set for the best of the sunshine with cloud cover in Wales and central England. Maximum temperatures of 18-27C. Light rain and showers should remain in the northern seas and affect the Northern Isles but some showers may affect Scotland and coastal regions around the Irish and North Sea. Cloudy skies are possible in south east England, northern and western areas too but there'll also be clear skies in various areas.

Certainly, Scotland and NI will see some sunshine after tomorrow before it becomes more unsettled on Friday. Central/Northern areas of England and Wales may see some cloud cover and rain at times but Friday could be a sunnier day here. Southern England looks set for a sunny and hot few few days with the first 30C of the year expected. The high pressure should be replaced by low pressure come the weekend and bringing cooler and fresher conditions with it aswell as some precipitation. A notable thing I've noticed in recent runs is that high pressure returns to Greenland and at the moment it looks like we're synoptically going to return back to June and earlier this month but things can so easily change and only once we're there that we'll know whether it'll be as diabolical as we've seen in previous weeks or whether there'll be some positives. High pressure does remain to our SW but the models haven't really given us a real clue as to what it could do so things can and may change but at the moment a return to northern blocking seems likely but for how long is to be debated over and what weather this renewed northern blocking may bring will only be known once we're there. It's been remarkable at again we've seen heights to our NW and how persistent they've been since April. Another spell of northern blocking would be really impressive in terms of the duration and persistence of this synoptic.

[peterf]

EH?

Hello there.

It's been a spectacular summer day for much of England and Wales with warm-hot temperatures and glorious sunshine without a cloud a sky.

[Slowpoke]

ECM outlook better than the GFS in my opinion. When the Northerly moves away after the weekend, it shows a low over us and the low is assosiated with some very warm air, uppers of 13-15C over Scotland. I imagine the low would be humid, feeling hot in any sunshine and giving us some nice thunderstorms. It's a much better outlook for heat and storm lovers!

[Summer Sun]

ECM shows the weekend's low to be a stubborn one

Doesn't go anywhere fast sadly

Edited July 23, 2012 by Summer Sun