Olympic And Paralympic Model Discussion

[Summer Sun]

Please use this thread for the Olympic and Paralympics so we can keep the main MOD thread thread free of this as requested by the mods

Edited July 21, 2012 by Summer Sun

[Bobby]

At the moment the opening ceremony is a washout says GFS

Edited July 21, 2012 by Barb-

[johnholmes]

the latest output from Met has a subtle difference again from that issued yesterday which itself was a change from the previous issue on Thursday?

UK Outlook for Thursday 26 Jul 2012 to Saturday 4 Aug 2012:

A band of cloud and rain across central Britain will weaken on Thursday, with mainly fine, dry and sunny conditions elsewhere. The best of the very warm weather hanging on in the south, but a chance of some heavy showers moving north from France by Friday or Saturday.

[ANYWEATHER]

Gfs is really sticking to its guns with low pressure developing especially in the southern half of the Uk by Friday. If this chart comes off the opening ceremony at the Olimpics is going to see torrential rain, although at this stage precip output is best taken with a truck load of salt!!

[nick sussex]

There is still alot of uncertainty with the end of next week, the GFS looks pretty dreadful for the Opening Ceremony but much depends on whether the precip comes in the form of showers or frontal rain.

Given the start of the ceremony starts at 9pm you do often find the intensity of showers diminishing at that stage, its just a case of waiting to see nearer the time.

[Summer Sun]

The met office's Olympic's forecast's are now online

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/events/olympics

[Summer Sun]

BBC weather's Peter Gibbs take a look at the weather prospects for the end of the week

The weather in the south east of England is giving a warm welcome to arriving Olympic athletes, but will it last into the big event itself?

A week is still a long time in weather forecasting, so Peter Gibbs takes a look at the range of possibilities.

http://www.bbc.co.uk...atures/18944514

Edited July 22, 2012 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

The way things are going I can see this been one of the wettest olympics for a long time

[Jezzer]

The way things are going I can see this been one of the wettest olympics for a long time

Yep it's looking thoroughly miserable for the opening week. Just wonder what might happen for the athletics during the second week?

I actually thought that we might escape with a decent period of weather for the Games considering what a poor summer it's been, appears I was wrong. I really should have known better. The British weather has an uncanny knack for bad timing. Incredible how the low moves in just as they start. Blooming typical!!

Will be interesting to see how this Friday firms up through the week. Nightmare for the forecasters to nail down the precise details at the moment.

Edited July 23, 2012 by Jezzer

[Bobby]

Looks like the Olympics could be a washout now, starting with the opening ceremony on Friday, typical eh?

[The Northern Ramper]

The way things are going I can see this been one of the wettest olympics for a long time

Because you jinxed the summer Gavin.

[Jezzer]

Looks like the Olympics could be a washout now, starting with the opening ceremony on Friday, typical eh?

Yup very typical, those weather gods aren't happy chappys

It's so frustrating seeing the Olympic Park under gorgeous blue skies only to think that next week it's forecast to be the total opposite.

[Jezzer]

Liam Dutton's thoughts via his Twitter feed...

http://blogs.channel4.com/liam-dutton-on-weather/london-olympics-weather-present/1657

[Summer Sun]

Early outlook from the beeb goes for light rain and a low of 21c at 21:00 on Friday, could be a rather humid feel to the evening

http://www.bbc.co.uk...atures/18953465

Edited July 23, 2012 by Summer Sun

[Paul]

Olympic weather and news feature now online:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=olympics;sess=

[bluearmy]

the trend is currently for the thundery plume to pass just to our se and the trough coming se to be delayed until after the opening ceremony. they could be very lucky indeed.

[Upgrade]

Wow, hope so . I've got everything crossed for Friday. That said, i am going to the dress rehearsal on Wednesday, which should at least be in the good weather.

[tinybill]

well if its very lucky the opening of the Olympics might escape the rain!!

[johnholmes]

copied from the model thread, some may find this useful-changes with the GFS output over the last 5 days, which will be right if any?

GFS and the Olympic opening ceremony predictions.pdf

[Jezzer]

Just on my way back from tonight's dress rehearsal at the Olympic Stadium. Incredible It's going to be an amazing show on Friday.

After watching that on a perfect summer's night I'm praying they manage to avoid the rain on Friday night! Think everyone involved deserves a spot of luck with the weather

[tinybill]

all i say is fingers and toes crossed for Friday from last night the small gap in the southeast has gone

[AWD]

Met Office give it a 60% chance of rain, 20% chance of it being heavy for opening ceremony.

Source: Ian Fergussons twitter feed.

[nick sussex]

I think its now looking that any storms will be triggered by that front moving se rather than being imported from northern France.

This makes the speed of that front pretty crucial to the Opening Ceremony, annoyingly the GFS 06hrs run brings the precip in at 8pm just ast the 00hrs did and the UKMO fax charts shows the front making further se progress than on yesterday evenings.

We're left in a bif of a conundrum here as the GFS does show a clearance in the precip but typically after the ceremony is due to finish, that would just be rotten luck!

So we either need a delay in that front or it to scoot through much quicker, at this timeframe there is still likely to be some changes so we just have to hope for the best.

[Gavin P]

I wonder if the front may be quite weak in the end. Lets hope so.

[Vince Coombes]

Maybe the government should have a word with the Chinese authorities and devise a way of getting this Summery spell to last another 2 weeks