South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion - July 20th 2012>

[Steve C]

That is one deep low for July on the Met Office chart!

I reckon I'm on the borderline of 'white' on the other charts. I'm alright Jack!

Edited July 20, 2012 by Steve C

[Eskimo]

now lets confuse everyone

fax chart

gfs rainfall

the fax has a 1026 high pressure above us

now if correct we may get a very light shower at best

and i would realistically expect it to be dry

and that is for tomorrow

Although there's a strong high in place, there's a little feature running into Holland & Germany so very little moisture could still be fed into it.

Edited July 20, 2012 by Perfect Storm

[john pike]

Although there's a strong high in place, there's a little feature running into Holland & Germany so very little moisture could still be fed into it.

i would have thought the high pressure at 1026

would kill that little low pressure off

gfs do not show the low to confuse it more

be interesting to see who is right

[john pike]

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

interesting around southend at present

looks like some backbuilding and some more

about to meet it

zoom in for better view

[Jason T]

i would have thought the high pressure at 1026

would kill that little low pressure off

gfs do not show the low to confuse it more

be interesting to see who is right

Im going for an electrical storm JP,With no loudness,Long time since we had one of those. Great light show though.

[Jason T]

Im going for an electrical storm JP,With no loudness,Long time since we had one of those. Great light show though.

Sorry John 1026 Rising to 1028/9,High pressure would be like a dyson,However if the chill factor maintain's (TROUBLE). That would be some serious activity.

[Eskimo]

Sorry John 1026 Rising to 1028/9,High pressure would be like a dyson,However if the chill factor maintain's (TROUBLE). That would be some serious activity.

That chart is for tomorrow

[john pike]

saturday

very light showers dying out leaving a dry and pleasant afternoon

sunday high pressure in control

dry sunny and getting warmer 22-23 degrees

a tad cooler on the coasts

a straddled front near the south east

should stay dry and still warm

could be a cloudy day though

still warm and dry

cloud on and off during the day

still warm and dry

better chance of sunshine

now after our summer we have had, would you turn your nose up at these

i wont even if it only lasts until friday

[john pike]

to add to above post

ukmo chart still shows high pressure in control

and that will be pretty warm here in the south east

[Eskimo]

to add to above post

ukmo chart still shows high pressure in control

and that will be pretty warm here in the south east

Low pressure starting to form over the plains of Spain I see ready to push Northward.

[abruzzi spur]

Off to North Pembrokeshire tomorrow for a week including my **th/rd/st birthday. We go there anything up to 4 times a year and normaly don't care about the weather, as it is what it is, often wet, sometimes cold, breezy, occasionally warm and sunny. This year though I would really appreciate the weather gods sending some sun and a bit (not too much, I'm not greedy) of warmth our way.

If I can get a signal I will drop the odd post in from the far west, where the sun sets about 15 minutes later than it does in our neck of the woods - when I'm there it feels like I have been given a special gift; here's some time, here's some daylight; use it wisely not too well.

AS

[john pike]

Low pressure starting to form over the plains of Spain I see ready to push Northward.

yep

tallys in nicely with the storm showing on gfs for friday

[Eskimo]

North Kent getting a real pounding over the last hour, lots more where that came from!

[Jason T]

That chart is for tomorrow

Then tomorrow it begins..

[camiscool]

What beginns?

[Eskimo]

Then tomorrow it begins..

Not really sure what you're implying but if it's terms of electrical activity then we will not see any of the sort until next week at the earliest.

Edited July 20, 2012 by Perfect Storm

[Keraunic]

Cor! It's gonna be an interesting week. Good stuff. Hot sun, T & L (maybe) and some very excited storm chasers/watchers. :o

[john pike]

North Kent getting a real pounding over the last hour, lots more where that came from!

hello mate

watch the backbuilding near southend

a funnel would be possible from that

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

[Eskimo]

hello mate

watch the backbuilding near southend

a funnel would be possible from that

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

Yeah I noticed how unusual it looked, also noticing a slight anti-clockwise spin to the lump of rain, who knows?

Edited July 20, 2012 by Perfect Storm

[Snowangel-MK]

Well it stayed dry for La Compangnie Carabosse: Les jardins de Fue ....

...it was a bit squidgy underfoot in places but what an amazing evening it has been !

[Jason T]

Yeah I noticed how unusual it looked, also noticing a slight anti-clockwise spin to the lump of rain, who knows?

My point was,THAT as the Jet is now climbing it will create dragg,The Jet Stream has been stuck in stale mate POSITION above us, All the high pressure it has absorbed ,Spills straight down on the lovely green UK. Also as the Jet really doe's not leave the UK--any Humidity behind mixes with-in the drag.Cant beat a good bit of moisture,As i said (IT BEGINS TOMORROW). Watch the pressure charts.?

Edited July 20, 2012 by Jason T

[john pike]

now for the bad news

the jet goes where we dont want it

the noticeable thing i have picked up is how winday the charts look for early august

the jet charts are fickle so more runs will be needed

i expect the jet to go north of us, over us, and below us during august

so some good weather some bad weather

just my thoughts

[Iceni]

The wheat crop around here will have had it unless we get at least two weeks of dry and sunny… windy would help too to dry them out for a quick harvest. It's tragic really.

I've never known the ground so sodden in summer in 10 years of living here.

[Jason T]

The wheat crop around here will have had it unless we get at least two weeks of dry and sunny… windy would help too to dry them out for a quick harvest. It's tragic really.

I've never known the ground so sodden in summer in 10 years of living here.

Well,From a newbie point of view (MODEL OUTPUT) I do not believe the current output we are seeing is correct,The main game player in this,Is the jet moving North,We have to bear in mind that it has been stuck in it's current position for weeks and now it is on the move,Pattern change...My view YES, I think that any pattern previous will not be copied now and that we in UK could be in for a good roasting,JP'S Post is a good indication of where the output is currently at. A true reflection well NO. The way I see it is that this summer is a wait until we see where the jet stops,We need 5 days down the line for that from now,Obviously the higher it climbs the better the weather pattern,Also we have the followers (The Spanish) The Jet is a great big player in any weather pattern,The more mobile it is the better it is. However like most issue's with the UK weather I could be completely wrong,But sixth sense telling me different,I think we should all wait until next weekend for a true outcome,As for storm value there could be a few surprises,Especially for the South/East. My general forecast for the next 2 weeks...Hot,Sultry,and windy with T Storms in the mix.

[Steve C]

Off to North Pembrokeshire tomorrow for a week including my **th/rd/st birthday. We go there anything up to 4 times a year and normaly don't care about the weather, as it is what it is, often wet, sometimes cold, breezy, occasionally warm and sunny. This year though I would really appreciate the weather gods sending some sun and a bit (not too much, I'm not greedy) of warmth our way.

If I can get a signal I will drop the odd post in from the far west, where the sun sets about 15 minutes later than it does in our neck of the woods - when I'm there it feels like I have been given a special gift; here's some time, here's some daylight; use it wisely not too well.

AS

Happy 21st AS!

As an aside, I can't remember a non tropical low pressure that deep in the North Atlantic in July (965mb) as posted by John earlier - not saying I've been totally observant in the past though.

We had a major storm in East Anglia on the night of 2nd January 1976 (one of these things you remember from your childhood, if you have an interest in weather - in fact this may have actually fired my interest. I remember lots of big trees down and my neighbours' greenhouse flattened) This storm had winds gusting to 100mph in Norwich (highly impressive for inland, lowland, southern England) and probably around 110mph on the north Norfolk coast. This storm only attained 968mb at its deepest. Okay, a very steep pressure gradient was the prime factor in this case, but nonetheless it does show that the current Atlantic storm is pretty notable, considering it's summer.