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Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 17th July 2012>


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Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands

Great images folks. Last time I saw a funnel cloud was August 1997.

Last time I saw a funnel cloud was when it dropped a tornado right in my back yard in June 2009, if anyone remembers that storm, it was when it suddenly brewed in the east and dropped 3-4 inches of hail and inevitably flooded everywhere, June 16th I believe, the worst storm I will probably ever see in this country.

http://www.hertfords...Buntingford.htm

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Edited by Perfect Storm
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Posted
  • Location: Ipswich. (Originally from York)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder Storms. All extreme weather.
  • Location: Ipswich. (Originally from York)

Hmm, looking at that image above, Norwich probably got something that day too. I'm racking my brains to remember. The photo of the tornado is a good one.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Quiet for a while but maybe building towards the end of the weekend?

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

Looks like ther''s some potential tomorrow here as well as on friday and saturday. Metoffice also going for heavy thundery showers although I keeppp letting my self be taken in by these forecasts when they have hardly ever been correct this year

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Looks like ther''s some potential tomorrow here as well as on friday and saturday. Metoffice also going for heavy thundery showers although I keeppp letting my self be taken in by these forecasts when they have hardly ever been correct this year

Hmmm, it's not a massive potential according to GFS, but they may be on to something:

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gfs_cape_eur36.png

But it's certainly in your area!

gfs_icape_eur36.png

gfs_layer_eur36.png

Here's the interesting bit though.....

gfs_stp_eur36.png

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Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset

Any thoughts on the potential Fri to Sunday? Tomorrow could see some action as a cold front attemps to move east, then Thurs well at the moment looks a quieter day then friday convection kicks off could a change of month bring some storms to those who have missed out so far.

I will be watching todays updated faxes especially the later ones s the human input could give us some clues. A lot depends on what temp is dragged in tomorrow behind that cold front and what air pressure we finish up with. But still with a good strong sun, lets hope something gets fired up. I've now loaded my camera as i dont want to miss any good magical moments like i did Sunday morning - 5.30 am rising sun catching storm clouds moving in from west ,beutifull orangy yellow sky.

Cheers gang drinks.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Heat Waves, Tornadoes.
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol

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More chance of flying to moon I reckon. Just watch it wither from the west and drift east.

edit: How do I post images instead of links?

edit 2: Edited a few times to keep up with recent runs and I've now just posted my first picture.

Edited by Thunder_Bolt
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Posted
  • Location: Leighton Buzzard
  • Weather Preferences: T-storms
  • Location: Leighton Buzzard

edit: How do I post images instead of links?

Download the image(s) to your 'puter.. Then upload them as attachments in your post (click the 'image' toolbar button in the post editor).

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Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset

regards tomorrows COLD FRONT ,at present the advancing front is much more organised and already showing nicely ,i think we have two possible options on offer ,it comes through with vigour or is just a little wimp ,breaking up as it crosses good old uk , i prefer the first option but timing will be critical . it could surprise us all ,or as i said a wimp . tonights sat view at about 7.30 pm should provide us with some clues ,as angle of sun will be about right to bring out detail ,gone muggy here with patchy light rain ,cheers

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Heat Waves, Tornadoes.
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol

Download the image(s) to your 'puter.. Then upload them as attachments in your post (click the 'image' toolbar button in the post editor).

Many many thanks.

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Posted
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, cold winters.. How it should be!
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL

Hmmm, it's not a massive potential according to GFS, but they may be on to something:

36_20.gif

gfs_cape_eur36.png

But it's certainly in your area!

gfs_icape_eur36.png

gfs_layer_eur36.png

Here's the interesting bit though.....

gfs_stp_eur36.png

In my area too! :D

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Posted
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
  • Weather Preferences: Columus Bigus Convectivus
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl

regards tomorrows COLD FRONT ,at present the advancing front is much more organised and already showing nicely ,i think we have two possible options on offer ,it comes through with vigour or is just a little wimp ,breaking up as it crosses good old uk , i prefer the first option but timing will be critical . it could surprise us all ,or as i said a wimp . tonights sat view at about 7.30 pm should provide us with some clues ,as angle of sun will be about right to bring out detail ,gone muggy here with patchy light rain ,cheers

Good tip

Certainly see a more defined sat view of the developing cold front at this time of evening

http://www.yr.no/sat..._animasjon.html

edit; looking at the latest fax this should be interesting to watch tomorrow, as it approaches our area in the early afternoon

Edited by Arnie Pie
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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

Quite a lot of altocumulus and cirrocumulus out there this evening and feeling muggy. If something doesn't go bang tomorrow, it never will!

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

There looks to be the usual "pulse storm" potential we have seen much of this summer, over many parts of the UK for the next few days. So, just looking at tomorrow now, and taking things a day at a time, a quick browse through some model output this evening suggests tomorrow is rather more a day for the north, rather than a day for the south.

The GFS 12z output on the left, and the Hirlam output on the right however do suggest slightly different areas at risk.

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To me, the GFS suggests central northern areas at risk of any storms, whilst the Hirlam suggests more North Wales & North West England. Both models suggest similiar cape, Li, Sheer and Lapse rate values etc, and interestingly both suggest quite a strong possibility of tornadic activity in their respective areas.

Here are the 12z raw output charts for the GFS, solely for the UK.

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So, here you can clearly see the main risk area from the GFS being central Northern England, probably down into Lincolnshire though still. clapping.gifrofl.gifrofl.gifrofl.gif

Look forward to the experts view tomorrow morning, including Coasts' morning round up, but all in all, an interesting few days ahead, starting for you Northerner's tomorrow possibly.

post-12721-0-71574300-1343767817_thumb.p

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Valid: 01/08/2012 06:00 - 02/08/2012 06:00

Headline: ... THERE IS A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST...

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Synopsis

A deepening low to the NW of Ireland on Wednesday will drive a deeply cyclonic SW'erly flow across the UK, an associated cold front will advance eastwards into western areas during the morning, lying Ayr-Liverpool-Weymouth by 12z, with occluded front moving in behind to the W.

... IRELAND, WALES, SW ENGLAND, MIDLANDS, E ANGLIA, N ENGLAND & S SCOTLAND ...

Confluent upper trough and attendant cold front will advance eastwards across the UK during Weds, which will likely be the focus for convection - particularly Ireland in the morning then across Nern, central and western UK into the afternoon.

Ahead of trough/cold front will be a fairly warm/moist Tm SWerly flow which will become unstable as lapse rates steepen and forcing deepens with approach of upper trough. A few thunderstorms are possible should cloud breaks allow sufficient surface heating to combine with the forced ascent of approaching trough and C front. Modestly strong upper winds on forward side of trough (40 knts at 500mb) and 20-30 knts of DL shear suggests convection may organise into multicell clusters/line segments ... bringing a risk of strong wind gusts, hail and torrential rain with risk of flooding with any storms.

15-20 knts of LL shear and low LCLs near the cold front suggests also that an isolated brief/weak tornado can't be ruled out across Ireland in the morning, then Wales and the West Country by the afternoon as the CF continues east. However, generally saturated profiles on forecast skew-ts suggest storm coverage and growth maybe too hindered for a categorical risk of severe weather to be forecast for now.

http://www.netweathe...51acad96250caa2

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

A lot of altocumulus out there, this morning...

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Posted
  • Location: Ipswich. (Originally from York)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder Storms. All extreme weather.
  • Location: Ipswich. (Originally from York)

Talking of clouds, last night there were lots of what looked like contrails but wider than those left by aeroplanes. They were radiating outwards like beams from the moon, like a fan. Never seen that before so what could they have been. Also at dusk there were what looked a little like lenticular clouds. (how's that for alliteration :) )

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Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset

we do have some rain here now, only a few spots but very large , radar showing hvy rain developing down over south west ,but hard to say which areas will get it as its a very developing situation ,looking at present sky [clouds ]we have many layers of moisture and out to my far west a very darkening sky ,how far west this organised rain will get is hard to forecast at present .pressure still falling ,wind becoming stronger cheers

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Posted
  • Location: Chester
  • Weather Preferences: the stormier the better...
  • Location: Chester

Wondering if we are in the path for anything today....storm starved! If the more enlightened members could comment....! :-)

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Posted
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl

Wondering if we are in the path for anything today....storm starved! If the more enlightened members could comment....! :-)

You're not going to get anywhere trying to make me laugh you know! Why don't you ask a more realistic question...i.e "Is Elvis on the moon?" rofl.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Nairn
  • Location: Nairn

Last Update: 01:15UTC Wednesday 1st August 2012

SKYWARN UK SEVERE WEATHER WATCH #043

ISSUED: 00:00 WED 1ST AUGUST 2012 (SM/GS/GJ)

SKYWARN UK HAS ISSUED A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE FOLLOWING REGIONS:

NORTHERN ENGLAND

WALES

NORTHERN IRELAND

SOUTHERN SCOTLAND

IN EFFECT FROM 00:00UTC WED 1ST AUGUST 2012 UNTIL 00:00 THUR 2ND AUGUST 2012

LOW PRESSURE STALLING WEST OF IRELAND PROVIDING UNSTABLE AND SATURATED AIRMASS.

THREATS HEAVY RAIN...FLOODING...FUNNELS/WEAK TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION:

During the morning the Cold Front moves into western parts with a decaying occlusion being pushed in behind that to provide a set of weak fronts. Ahead of this, decent moisture loading occurs such that PW becomes ~3cm with 850mb Theta-E around 40C. Shear is very favourable, given the jetstream is overtopping a mid level jet with decent helicity, and convergence at surface along the CF provoding even more low-mid level helicity. Hodographs are interesting for the low-mid levels with plenty of flow near surface to enhance any tornadogenesis.

SPOTTERS ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED AND SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ALL FACTORS EXCEEDING ACTIVATION CRITERIA.

http://skywarn.org.uk/current.html

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

BBC 24 forecasts suggesting cells will arrive from over the English Channel, yeah right? The main risk area was picked on as it covered the Olympic events. Well I suppose they know better than me, so maybe, just maybe the SouthEast will be the place to be today. As for my Central Southern England, the skies were once promising but frontal rain is perhaps more likely for later on.

Eyes should be on the Satellite images and Radars for our best hopes I would imagine.

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

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