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Technical Teleconnective Papers


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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

Essentially what Chiono has paraphrased the extract to Jonboy. It means we can look right at the top of the Stratosphere for warming pulses.

 

Ed, did you get a hold of that paper by Labitzke?

 

I googled it and it's behind a wiley journal paywall, at a stunning $42 dollars for 24 hrs access !

 

Did find this one though from 2008 with some useful analogs and tables, a forerunner am sure to what has just been published.

 

http://solar.physics.montana.edu/SVECSE2008/pdf/labitzke_svecse.pdf

 

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Essentially what Chiono has paraphrased the extract to Jonboy. It means we can look right at the top of the Stratosphere for warming pulses.

 

Ed, did you get a hold of that paper by Labitzke?

 

I googled it and it's behind a wiley journal paywall, at a stunning $42 dollars for 24 hrs access !

 

Did find this one though from 2008 with some useful analogs and tables, a forerunner am sure to what has just been published.

 

http://solar.physics.montana.edu/SVECSE2008/pdf/labitzke_svecse.pdf

No - I was too tight to pay as the info normally comes to light eventually.

 

FWIW, even though we are entering a theoretical solar max - it is a very half hearted one - so I don't know whether we can expect a significantly enhanced BDC from the link between the wQBO and solar max.

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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

No - I was too tight to pay as the info normally comes to light eventually.

 

FWIW, even though we are entering a theoretical solar max - it is a very half hearted one - so I don't know whether we can expect a significantly enhanced BDC from the link between the wQBO and solar max.

 

Looking at the info. in that paper there are a few good scatter graphs that highlight the years relevant to precisely that point and of course this graph,

 

I like page 14 as it puts things quite simply, might need to look for that Holton and Tan paper for a read. So could we say without the Solar Max reaching previous levels there is not an over-riding signal for a very strong vortex profile with respect to what the BDC is doing. If you want to confuse people put slide 23 up that makes the point that in Solar max both QBO phases are dampened. Re QBO Raw Data 1990 is worth a look for similarities. 2013 out there with some strong figures already.

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Posted
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl

Looking at the info. in that paper there are a few good scatter graphs that highlight the years relevant to precisely that point and of course this graph,

 

I like page 14 as it puts things quite simply, might need to look for that Holton and Tan paper for a read. So could we say without the Solar Max reaching previous levels there is not an over-riding signal for a very strong vortex profile with respect to what the BDC is doing. If you want to confuse people put slide 23 up that makes the point that in Solar max both QBO phases are dampened. Re QBO Raw Data 1990 is worth a look for similarities. 2013 out there with some strong figures already.

 

Funny you should mention 1990 Lorenzo.

 

I have been looking in recent weeks at the QBO and ENSO indexes with regard to compiling the initial detail for my winter forecast....1990 for me provides the strongest composite going in to this winter, along with 1978....back in spring the strongest was a combination of 1962/1978. This still leads me towards the conclusion that February 2014 could well be really rather severe. We should hopefully get an update today from ISES on the sunspot count progression too.

 

SK

Edited by snowking
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Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire

Funny you should mention 1990 Lorenzo.

 

I have been looking in recent weeks at the QBO and ENSO indexes with regard to compiling the initial detail for my winter forecast....1990 for me provides the strongest composite going in to this winter, along with 1978....back in spring the strongest was a combination of 1962/1978. This still leads me towards the conclusion that February 2014 could well be really rather severe. We should hopefully get an update today from ISES on the sunspot count progression too.

 

SK

 

What did the update show from ISES in correlation to sunspot count?

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Posted
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl

What did the update show from ISES in correlation to sunspot count?

It showed a slight uptick in activity through August...but then in the last 4 days or so activity has really plummeted, with the count now down at 24 observed spots as of yesterday. It is likely to rise again from those values but it does suggest to me we are perhaps in an overall downward trend once again, having reached the projected double maxima

 

SK

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: cold
  • Location: Sunderland

1990 is cropping up here! I think that the possibility of a strong late season event is strong based on pure arctic composites; good to see that the QBO strengthens that up; will have a read of some of these papers on it I think.

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

I've crossed 1990 off my list as I felt that a solar max in 2013 is more like a mid cycle in previous solar cycles - as demonstrated below - that leaves us with only a few west QBO and ENSO neutral years to compare with.

 

post-4523-0-76086500-1378800706_thumb.pn

 

http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data

 

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Cohens latest regarding feedback from low ice

 

http://www.tos.org/oceanography/archive/26-4_cohen.pdf

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  • 2 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Wonderful Paper as posted by Snowy L (thanks) in the winter thread. And when I get time there are many links to other papers in there that need to be researched.

 

http://www.tellusa.net/index.php/tellusa/article/view/19375/html

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Was looking up record strat NAM months and I am coming acrioss papers so I will dump them in here and read later

 

The first looks really interesting reagrding cold spells over N Europe

 

http://www.nwra.com/resumes/baldwin/pubs/TomassiniEtAl2012.pdf

 

http://www.phys.ocean.dal.ca/people/po/Whistler/baldwin.pdf

 

 

We may already have this one linking the MJO:

 

http://www.jhu.edu/~dwaugh1/papers/Garfinkel_etal_2012_mjo.pdf

 

http://www.atmos.pku.edu.cn/yhu/2010-2011-winter.pdf

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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

So much to read - so little time ! Nice sum up in the first paper, describes the SSW impact on the trop. very well.

 

Publication lists for Baldwin, Cohen, Jaiser ( great read that one).

 

http://www.nwra.com/resumes/baldwin/publications.php

 

http://web.mit.edu/jlcohen/www/papers.html

 

http://epic.awi.de/view/ldapid/rjaiser.html

Edited by lorenzo
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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

A complete autopsy on Vortex Displacement and splits.

 

Last paper I saw on this was nowhere near as in depth.

 

The main dates table is updated and has doubled in size, also some interesting loading H5 patterns for both event types.

 

http://www.nwra.com/resumes/baldwin/pubs/mitchell2013_jclim.pdf

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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

http://www.rmets.org/events/madden-julian-oscillation-and-its-importance-medium-range-forecasting

If I can get organised will head along to this to find out some more about what ECMWF are planning.

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Posted
  • Location: Barnet/south Herts border 130m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms & all extreme weather
  • Location: Barnet/south Herts border 130m asl

some great papers in here.  You are both determined to never let me sleep! great stuff keep it up Posted Image

 

Lorenzo did u make it to the MJO meet? i couldnt make it, but have used the "suggestion" area on Rmets website to suggest another meet soon.  If you didnt make it today, u might want to suggest the same - the more who do, perhaps increases the chances of it happening.  Rmets do often record these meets and publish online, but unfortunately they dont have the equipment today.  Someone i know is attending today, ive asked him to take lots of notes!

Edited by Suburban Streamer
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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

some great papers in here.  You are both determined to never let me sleep! great stuff keep it up Posted Image

 

Lorenzo did u make it to the MJO meet? i couldnt make it, but have used the "suggestion" area on Rmets website to suggest another meet soon.  If you didnt make it today, u might want to suggest the same - the more who do, perhaps increases the chances of it happening.  Rmets do often record these meets and publish online, but unfortunately they dont have the equipment today.  Someone i know is attending today, ive asked him to take lots of notes!

 

Hi SS, good to find you in Twitter world. Nice website too.

 

The meeting is this evening, this caught my interest with respect to the influence of the MJO in Winter.

 

On the more technical side the influence of the coupling within the ECMWF model and how they are currently resolving this is also of interest.

 

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/guide/Downstream_spread_of_influence.html

 

http://www.ecmwf.int/research/monthly_forecasting/mofc-des.html

 

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/seasonal/documentation/system3/ch2.html

 

Edit - when I was at Uni. it was all hand written notes, guess it is IPADS and tablets these days. Will type stuff into my phone I reckon or maybe an old fashioned notebook and pen !

Edited by lorenzo
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Posted
  • Location: Barnet/south Herts border 130m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms & all extreme weather
  • Location: Barnet/south Herts border 130m asl

 

Hi SS, good to find you in Twitter world. Nice website too.

 

Edit - when I was at Uni. it was all hand written notes, guess it is IPADS and tablets these days. Will type stuff into my phone I reckon or maybe an old fashioned notebook and pen !

 

ah yes love a bit of twitter, just added you.

And thanks about the website - the idea was/is to have all info under one roof, particularly from a strat monitoring point of view - rather than opening a million tabs every morning.  Its still work in progress and if yourself or anyone else has any suggestions, i'd love to hear.  Parts of the site are a bit redundant currently, thanks to the usa gov shutdown, but hopefully that will be sorted soon.

 

Yes i'm not sure i'm still physically capable of actual writing these days! i wonder if audio recording the MJO meeting is permitted? worth asking i suppose.  If you get the chance to jot down a brief summary of what you learn this evening, that would be much appreciated Posted Image

Edited by Suburban Streamer
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Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire

Hope the meeting went well lorenzo! Look forward to what was said and some musings from yourself a amazing area of meteorology i love to learn more about, fascinating!

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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

The meeting was very good, a clear and concise presentation on the MJO, spilt into 2 sections.

 

First was the history of how Madden & Julian first discovered the MJO, the cycle, the impact across the tropics, essentially explaining what the MJO is and what it does.

 

Second half focused on the impact to the North Hemisphere and cited the Cassou paper published in Nature in 2008, before going on to discuss the issues within the ECMWF model resolving the MJO activity, tracking from 2005 to date model improvements including the recent improvements to how it views convection.

 

I hope to obtain a copy of the presentation so I can add it here. Will let you know as soon as I get an update. Having watched the MJO impact over winter for a few years now I was generally taken aback by how little known this cycle is among the general audience at the meeting.

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  • 2 weeks later...

A complete autopsy on Vortex Displacement and splits.

 

Last paper I saw on this was nowhere near as in depth.

 

The main dates table is updated and has doubled in size, also some interesting loading H5 patterns for both event types.

 

http://www.nwra.com/resumes/baldwin/pubs/mitchell2013_jclim.pdf

 

Was going to post a link to this one too, it's also in the Baldwin list you posted.

For good measure here is a link to work by Mitchell, most are probably duplicated here already but there is some interesting stuff in the pipeline as well

http://www.atm.ox.ac.uk/user/mitchell/dann_pubs.html

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Meet PAM - polar annular mode

 

In the same vein as the work above, two papers by Black & McDaniel examining the ongoing sub-monthly troposphere-statosphere coupling involved in every day synoptic conditions

 

Submonthly Polar Vortex Variability and Stratosphere–Troposphere Coupling in the Arctic (2009)

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2009JCLI2730.1

 

The structure, dynamics and tropospheric signature of the Polar Annular Mode (2012)

http://rxb.eas.gatech.edu/papers/black_mcdaniel_lee_2012.pdf

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Back to teleconnections and forecasting, a pre-print version of a paper published earlier this year, which distills the correlations and lags of 25 teleconnection modes and explains two-thirds of the variability using just 4 principal components -

 

Global modes of climate variability

http://www.atmos.ucla.edu/tcd/PREPRINTS/OdV&co-Global_modes-preprint_grl50386.pdf

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An absolute wealth of interesting recorded presentations and leads for further investigation at this year's joint 17th Conference on Middle Atmosphere and 19th Conference on Atmospheric and Oceanic Fluid Dynamics -

https://ams.confex.com/ams/19Fluid17Middle/webprogram/meeting.html

 

One award winner from there that wasn't recorded but worthy of further investigation has a poster presentation -

Investigating the Link Between Sudden Stratospheric Warming and Tropospheric Blocking in the Northern Hemisphere

http://atmos.eas.cornell.edu/~mek236/poster-aofd.pdf

 

In a similar vein to the above, a paper from the end of last year-

Observational responses of stratospheric sudden warming to blocking highs and its feedbacks on the troposphere

http://download.springer.com/static/pdf/773/art%253A10.1007%252Fs11434-012-5505-4.pdf?auth66=1384799690_b6009d2505bd3828fb11c7b6c063396c&ext=.pdf

 

And as a bonus, the works of Tim Woollings-

http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~swr01tjw/pubs/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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