Technical Teleconnective Papers

[lorenzo]

An absolute wealth of interesting recorded presentations and leads for further investigation at this year's joint 17th Conference on Middle Atmosphere and 19th Conference on Atmospheric and Oceanic Fluid Dynamics -

https://ams.confex.com/ams/19Fluid17Middle/webprogram/meeting.html

 

One award winner from there that wasn't recorded but worthy of further investigation has a poster presentation -

Investigating the Link Between Sudden Stratospheric Warming and Tropospheric Blocking in the Northern Hemisphere

http://atmos.eas.cornell.edu/~mek236/poster-aofd.pdf

 

In a similar vein to the above, a paper from the end of last year-

Observational responses of stratospheric sudden warming to blocking highs and its feedbacks on the troposphere

http://download.springer.com/static/pdf/773/art%253A10.1007%252Fs11434-012-5505-4.pdf?auth66=1384799690_b6009d2505bd3828fb11c7b6c063396c&ext=.pdf

 

And as a bonus, the works of Tim Woollings-

http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~swr01tjw/pubs/

 

Amazing wealth of material there Interitus, superb finds. The blocking paper is a good read, I like that they have identified the blocking pre-cursors into different categories. The Kelleher poster on heat flux is too much for my brain today.

 

As if there isn't enough going on in the strat at present and on the models ! Need to employ a researcher to get through that lot !!

[Interitus]

The publications page of Dr Tiffany Shaw, lots of good stuff on circulation, waves and trop-strat coupling and kept well up-to-date - the top of the list Troposphere-stratosphere coupling: Links to North Atlantic weather and climate, including their representation in CMIP5 models is still in draft form and dated yesterday!

 

http://www.columbia.edu/~tas2163/publications.html

[lorenzo]

The publications page of Dr Tiffany Shaw, lots of good stuff on circulation, waves and trop-strat coupling and kept well up-to-date - the top of the list Troposphere-stratosphere coupling: Links to North Atlantic weather and climate, including their representation in CMIP5 models is still in draft form and dated yesterday!

 

http://www.columbia.edu/~tas2163/publications.html

 

Just found that one this morning too, you beat me to it Interitus

[chionomaniac]

Just wanted to replace this paper in here for easy access over the coming weeks - SSW precursor paper

 

 

http://web.mit.edu/jlcohen/www/papers/CohenandJones_JClim11.pdf

 

Charts at the end to compare to.

[lorenzo]

Looking forward to reading, and seeing the output from this..

 

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/MWR-D-13-00301.1

[Interitus]

Looking forward to reading, and seeing the output from this..

 

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/MWR-D-13-00301.1

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/mjo/mjoindex/pdf/kiladisetal14.pdf

 

Overview here -

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/mjo/mjoindex/

Edited January 6, 2014 by Interitus

[knocker]

I don't know whether this is of interest but an article by a fellow amateur.

 

Sudden Stratospheric Warming: Causes & Effects

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2013/04/sudden-stratospheric-warmings-causes-effects.html

[BornFromTheVoid]

I'm not sure if this is exactly suited to the thread, but I suppose the pollution is now having long distance impacts.

 

 

Asian pollution climatically modulates mid-latitude cyclones following hierarchical modelling and observational analysis

 

Increasing levels of anthropogenic aerosols in Asia have raised considerable concern regarding its potential impact on the global atmosphere, but the magnitude of the associated climate forcing remains to be quantified. Here, using a novel hierarchical modelling approach and observational analysis, we demonstrate modulated mid-latitude cyclones by Asian pollution over the past three decades. Regional and seasonal simulations using a cloud-resolving model show that Asian pollution invigorates winter cyclones over the northwest Pacific, increasing precipitation by 7% and net cloud radiative forcing by 1.0 W m−2 at the top of the atmosphere and by 1.7 W m−2 at the Earth’s surface. A global climate model incorporating the diabatic heating anomalies from Asian pollution produces a 9% enhanced transient eddy meridional heat flux and reconciles a decadal variation of mid-latitude cyclones derived from the Reanalysis data. Our results unambiguously reveal a large impact of the Asian pollutant outflows on the global general circulation and climate.

 

A review of the paper

 

Asian Air Pollution Affecting World’s Weather

 

 

 

[Interitus]

Tying a few strands together - Quasi-biennial oscillation, Arctic oscillation and wave activity flux in this assessment of Siberian snow advance index -

How stationary is the relationship between Siberian snow and Arctic Oscillation over the 20th century?

http://www.researchgate.net/publication/235618032_How_stationary_is_the_relationship_between_Siberian_snow_and_Arctic_Oscillation_over_the_20th_century/file/d912f511ec20a3e2e8.pdf

 

Relevant to this winter and something to read while not much is happening!

[Interitus]

How does the quasi-biennial oscillation affect the stratospheric polar vortex?

http://www2.physics.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/files/2011-10-15/how_does_the_quasi_biennial_oscillation_affect_the_13883.pdf

 

High-latitude influence of the quasi-biennial oscillation

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.2132/pdf

[Interitus]

Presentations from the SPARC (Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate) 2014 General Assembly last month -

http://www.sparc-climate.org/meetings/general-assembly-2014/#c1121

 

Some would be better with explanatory commentary, but there is plenty of interesting stuff.

[Suburban Streamer]

this is an interesting read. Not a term i recall coming across before, but apologies if its already been posted

 

Mechanisms for the Holton-Tan relationship and its decadal variation:

 

http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=holton%20tan%20relationship&source=web&cd=6&ved=0CEkQFjAF&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.researchgate.net%2Fprofile%2FHua_Lu10%2Fpublication%2F260079132_Mechanisms_for_the_Holton-Tan_relationship_and_its_decadal_variation%2Ffile%2F3deec52f525b6cb7c5.pdf&ei=HMcZU4K4GYO2hQfqv4CYBw&usg=AFQjCNG-pS_vGvf9O3NShQyhaJsLzHkwDg&bvm=bv.62578216,d.ZG4

 

Long link but it does work!

[BornFromTheVoid]

Skilful Long Range Prediction of European and North American Winters

 

Until recently, long range forecast systems showed only modest levels of skill in predicting surface winter climate around the Atlantic basin and associated fluctuations in the North Atlantic Oscillation at seasonal lead times. Here we use a new forecast system to assess seasonal predictability of winter north Atlantic climate. We demonstrate that key aspects of European and North American winter climate and the surface North Atlantic Oscillation are highly predictable months ahead. We demonstrate high levels of prediction skill in retrospective forecasts of the surface North Atlantic Oscillation, winter storminess, near surface temperature and wind speed; all of which have high value for planning and adaptation to extreme winter conditions. Analysis of forecast ensembles suggests that while useful levels of seasonal forecast skill have now been achieved, key sources of predictability are still only partially represented and there is further untapped predictability.

 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL059637/abstract

 

The paper itself describes the ENSO, QBO, North Atlantic Gyre heat content and Kara sea ice as key teleconnections for the North Atlantic winter, According to them, El Nino, warm subpolar gyre, low Kara Sea ice, and easterly QBO, each tend to favour -ve NAO condition, while the opposite forms contribute to +ve NAO conditions.

[Suburban Streamer]

This is an interesting article. Read something about this last year.

Teleconnections in noctilucent clouds:

http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2014/16apr_teleconnections/

[Interitus]

An excellent collection of papers from Gudrun Magnusdottir's research group - http://www.ess.uci.edu/researchgrp/gudrun/home

[chionomaniac]

EP flux paper

 

http://www.cims.nyu.edu/~obuhler/Oliver_Buhler/Publications_files/EPFluxThyEJFM14.pdf

[Suburban Streamer]

EP flux paper

 

http://www.cims.nyu.edu/~obuhler/Oliver_Buhler/Publications_files/EPFluxThyEJFM14.pdf

thanks Ed, more a gentle hike than stroll

[Vorticity0123]

A whole collection of papers about the MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation), ordened per subtopic:

 

http://envam1.env.uea.ac.uk/mjo.html

 

The link also contains a good, easy to understand explanation of what the MJO is in general, with very nice animations showing the evolution of the MJO, and how it can be seen that it is a predictable cycle.

 

MJO-stratosphere relationships

 

Also here is an article examining the relationship between the phases of the MJO and the frequency and type of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSW's) that can occur during a winter:

 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014JD021876/abstract

 

MJO and upper troposphere

 

Going.somewhat more in depth to the relationship between the MJO and the upper troposphere, the first link given also has an interesting MJO phase loop (somewhat difficult to interpret, though). It can be found below:

 

MJO cycle stream function anomalies at 200 hPa height.

 

The image above shows the stream function anomalies which result from a full MJO cycle at 200 hPa height (which is at the upper troposphere). For the description, a quote from the link given in the first part of the post:

 

 

Streamfunction is a measure of the circulation in the atmosphere. The wind blows parallel to streamfunction contours: clockwise around positive streamfunction anomalies (red shading), and anticlockwise around negative streamfunction anomalies (blue shading). 200 hPa is a pressure level in the upper troposphere, about 8 km above the Earth's surface. It is the level at which the jet streams are strongest, and the MJO streamfunction anomalies in Figure 5 represent changes to the position and strength of the jet streams.

 

One can actually "see" these anomalies moving toward the pole. Given that the 200 hPa layer is at the upper troposphere, these signals may well propagate into the stratosphere. This is merely speculation, though.

 

Sources:

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014JD021876/abstract

http://envam1.env.uea.ac.uk/mjo.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stream_function#Vorticity