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  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    Around this time of year I often search out new papers to assist in winter forecasting. However, quite often I lose the links to these papers by the time winter arrives.

    So, I think it makes sense to have a drop off zone for these type of papers that I and others come across. Please post in here any abstracts or PDF links that you may find of interest.

    A brief description of the paper would be most welcome.

    ( No climate change papers please)

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    I think that it is a small but important step. Modelling the tropospheric impact of stratospheric changes is a welcome step forward and todays news regarding this is important. To hear Steve Wright on

    Was reading one of my climate books for a uni module and came across a section on the QBO, which linked to a review paper that i thought might be of interest to some (its quite long at 52 pages) htt

    A complete autopsy on Vortex Displacement and splits.   Last paper I saw on this was nowhere near as in depth.   The main dates table is updated and has doubled in size, also some interesting loading

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    And to start off here is an abstract on a paper to be verified soon.

    This suggests that Vortex splitting events in the stratosphere are more likely to give colder outbreaks over NA and Eurasia than displacement events.

    A strong link exists between stratospheric variability and anomalous weather patterns at the Earth's surface. Specifically, during extreme variability of the Arctic polar vortex termed a "weak vortex event", anomalies can descend from the upper stratosphere to the surface on timescales of weeks. Subsequently the outbreak of cold-air events have been noted in high Northern Latitudes, as well as a quadrapole pattern in surface temperature over the Atlantic and western European sectors. It is currently not understood why certain events descend to the surface while others do not, although this may be associated with the scale of vertically propagating Rossby waves which cause the initial vortex perturbation. In this study we demonstrate that the subdivision of weak vortex events into vortex displacements and vortex splits has important implications for tropospheric weather patterns on weekly-monthly timescales. Using reanalysis data we find that vortex splitting events play a highly significant role on surface weather with positive temperature anomalies over eastern North-America of more than 1.5K, and negative anomalies over Eurasia of up to -3K. Associated with this is an increase in tropospheric blocking over the Pacific basin and a decrease over the Atlantic/European sector. The corresponding signals are far weaker during displacement events, although ultimately they prove to be the cause of cold-air outbreaks over North America. Owing to the predictability and importance of stratosphere-troposphere coupling for medium-range weather forecasts, our findings suggest the need for such forecasting systems to correctly identify the type of stratospheric variability, otherwise surface responses cannot be accurately reproduced.

    (Bolded by me)

    http://www.nwra.com/.../abstract1.html

    Edited by chionomaniac
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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    This next paper suggests that SSW's are more likely in ENSO event years rather than ENSO neutral years. Interestingly, this is true of both El Nino events and La Nina events.

    I have extracted interesting info below about El Nino years

    . During an El Niño winter, it is wellâ€

    established that (1) temperatures are colder than normal in

    the tropical stratosphere and warmer than normal in the

    polar stratosphere; (2) ozone concentrations are anomalously low in the tropics and anomalously high at the pole,

    reflecting an enhanced Brewerâ€Dobson circulation [Randel

    et al., 2009; Cagnazzo et al., 2009]; and (3) the planetary

    wave flux into the stratosphere is enhanced resulting in a

    weakerâ€thanâ€normal stratospheric polar vortex [van Loon

    and Labitzke, 1987; Garcíaâ€Herrera et al., 2006; Garfinkel

    and Hartmann, 2008].

    http://www.columbia.edu/~lmp/paps/butler+polvani-GRL-2011.pdf

    And the follow up paper suggests why El Nino and La nIna events may be matched

    http://www.columbia.edu/~lmp/paps/garfinkel+etal-JGR-2012-revised.pdf

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    This next paper suggests that there is a correlation between increased North Atlantic heat release and stratospheric warmings.

    http://www.scienceda...10121081051.htm

    Edited by chionomaniac
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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    A paper on the positioning of blocking highs and their relationship to the upward propagation of planetary waves.

    http://www.atmos.rca...11JC-BHs-PW.pdf

    Previous studies have suggested the importance of blocking high (BH)

    development for the occurrence of stratospheric sudden warming (SSW),

    while there is a recent study that failed to identify their statistical

    linkage. Through composite analysis applied to high-amplitude

    anticyclonic anomaly events observed around every grid point over the

    extratropical Northern Hemisphere, the present study reveals distinct

    geographical de- pendence of BH influence on upward propagation of

    planetary waves (PWs) into the stratosphere. Tropospheric BHs that

    develop over the Euro-Atlantic sector tend to en- hance upward PW

    propagation, leading to the warming in the polar stratosphere and, in

    some occasions, to major SSW events. In contrast, the upward PW

    propagation tends to be suppressed by BHs developing over the western

    Pacific and the Far East, resulting in the polar stratospheric cooling.

    This dependence is found to arise mainly from the sensi- tivity of the

    interference between the climatological PWs and upward-propagating

    Rossby wave packets emanating from BHs to their geographical locations.

    This study also reveals that whether a BH over the eastern Pacific and

    Alaska can enhance or re- duce the upward PW propagation is

    case-dependent. It is suggested that BHs that induce the stratospheric

    cooling can weaken statistical relationship between BHs and SSWs

    A video here from a workshop on SSWs from Kyoto, Japan.

    http://www.ustream.t...corded/20636442

    I can edit out the video link if you want to keep this strictly papers though?

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    I can edit out the video link if you want to keep this strictly papers though?

    No all contributions like this are welcome thanks.

    I haven't had a chance to go through all the Kyoto papers yet!

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    From Sparc newsletter Jan 2012

    http://www.sparc-climate.org/fileadmin/customer/6_Publications/Newsletter_PDF/38_SPARCnewsletter_Jan2012.pdf

    Extract 1:

    Within the same theme, A. Scaife addressed challenges and progress in prediction for regional spatial scales on a

    wide range of timescales. The importance

    of prediction for monthly to decadal timescales in conjunction with understanding

    the effects of climate changes is underlined

    by the incidence of large impact events

    (e.g., floods, droughts, cold periods) that

    are associated with seasonal to decadal

    scale variability that accompanies the

    more slowly varying climate signal. Predictions for months to years must rely on

    both accurate measures of the initial state

    and its uncertainty as well as on accurate

    estimates of changes in climate forcing

    mechanisms (“boundary values†such as

    changes in the radiatively active components of atmospheric composition). In recent years considerable progress has been

    made in understanding key processes that

    influence monthly and seasonal predictability. These include improved understanding and modelling of the coupling

    between tropical and extratropical intraseasonal oscillations such as the MaddenJulian Oscillation (MJO) and the North

    Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the lagged

    coupling between stratospheric sudden

    warmings (SSWs) and tropospheric circulation anomalies, and predictability of

    El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

    events and their effect on weather patterns

    (rainfall) both in the tropics and the extratropics. There is now evidence that more

    accurate initialisation improves longrange predictions, particularly in the tropics. However long range predictability

    of extratropical weather events is generally poor. Some improvements have been

    achieved in making skilful prediction of

    the occurrence of high-impact weather

    events such as the numbers of hurricanes

    and the frequency of hot days. Further improvements in extended range forecasting

    are expected to emerge from the results of

    international activities such as the CMIP5

    decadal hindcast activity

    Extract 2:

    B. Dong’s work was motivated by a

    change in interannual NAO variability in

    the late 1970s, which was characterised

    by an eastward shift of the NAO centre

    of action. His analysis showed a downstream extension of climate anomalies

    associated with the NAO. Using Hadley

    Centre model experiments, he showed

    that both SST and CO2

    changes independently force an eastward shift in interannual NAO variability, and found that

    the effects of SST changes could be understood in terms of mean changes in the

    troposphere while those due to CO2

    could

    not. The implication is that stratospheric

    changes may play an important role in

    the observed eastward shift in interannual NAO variability and related climate

    anomalies.

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    Have you subscribed to strat_list Chio?

    I signed up for it about 2-3 years ago with the intention of improving my stratospheric knowledge, but having gotten so caught up in all the polar and sea ice stuff I just haven't been able to give it as much time as I'd like.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    Have you subscribed to strat_list Chio?

    I signed up for it about 2-3 years ago with the intention of improving my stratospheric knowledge, but having gotten so caught up in all the polar and sea ice stuff I just haven't been able to give it as much time as I'd like.

    I have now thanks!

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
    Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

    That is a good find.. Cat among the Pigeons then...

    Here is the link to the Met Office's new toy GloSea4 http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/7/3/034031/

    What do you make of the enhanced profiling from 50km to 80km Chiono? A small step or a stage for them to factor in things talked about readily on the SSW thread, Zonal wind reversal, EP Flux?

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    That is a good find.. Cat among the Pigeons then...

    Here is the link to the Met Office's new toy GloSea4 http://iopscience.io...326/7/3/034031/

    What do you make of the enhanced profiling from 50km to 80km Chiono? A small step or a stage for them to factor in things talked about readily on the SSW thread, Zonal wind reversal, EP Flux?

    I think that it is a small but important step. Modelling the tropospheric impact of stratospheric changes is a welcome step forward and todays news regarding this is important. To hear Steve Wright on radio 2 talking about SSW's today was very surreal.
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    Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

    Atmospheric Blocking and Atlantic Multidecadal Ocean Variability

    Going to add this one in here, cannot access the full paper sadly. Abstract is here.

    http://www.sciencemag.org/content/334/6056/655.abstract

    A good write up from NASA here.

    http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/blocking-atlantic.html

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    http://www.columbia.edu/~lmp/paps/manzini+etal-JGR-2012-submitted.pdf

    A little more about the new stratospheric computer modelling system, CMIP5.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    This has been mentioned elsewhere in the forum, but this paper demonstrates that less Arctic ice may be influential in a change of the NH circulatory patterns and a more negative AO.

    http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2012/02/17/1114910109.full.pdf

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    This may be a vintage paper but it's a goodie..

    http://www.sciencema.../5542/581.short

    I am sad enough to have the links to the whole amount of a lot of these papers, l!

    http://www.nwra.com/resumes/baldwin/pubs/baldwin_dunkerton_2001.pdf

    I have to say that this one is very comprehensive regarding stratospheric polar vortices:

    http://www.columbia.edu/~lmp/paps/waugh+polvani-PlumbFestVolume-2010.pdf

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    Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

    Waugh & Polvani got me onto EP Flux.. a good work out for the brain ..estimated time frame to decipher... 2018.. !

    Thanks for the link to the original above :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    Waugh & Polvani got me onto EP Flux.. a good work out for the brain ..estimated time frame to decipher... 2018.. !

    Thanks for the link to the original above Posted Image

    After last year with the EP flux being very unfavourable I think I have come on leaps and bounds in that respect!

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    Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

    Found last Winter archive of randomness...

    Limpasuvan_etal_JClim_04 The Life Cycle of the Northern Hemisphere Sudden Stratospheric Warmings

    Limpasuvan_etal_JClim_04.pdf

    El Niño, La Niña, and stratospheric sudden warmings:A re-evaluation in light of the observational record

    butler+polvani-GRL-2011.pdf

    Blocking precursors to stratospheric sudden warming events

    martius+polvani+davies-GRL-2009.pdf

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    Found last Winter archive of randomness...

    Limpasuvan_etal_JClim_04 The Life Cycle of the Northern Hemisphere Sudden Stratospheric Warmings

    Limpasuvan_etal_JClim_04.pdf

    El Niño, La Niña, and stratospheric sudden warmings:A re-evaluation in light of the observational record

    butler+polvani-GRL-2011.pdf

    Blocking precursors to stratospheric sudden warming events

    martius+polvani+davies-GRL-2009.pdf

    I'll cough on the second paper.

    (if you look above you'll see why -[already posted])

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    Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

    Think its worthwhile to add a bookmark for the paper linked by SM and MH over the last 24 hours.

    Impact of sea ice cover changes on the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric winter circulation.

    http://www.tellusa.n...view/11595/html

    Relationship of ENSO to stratospheric sudden warmings - slide with useful statistics

    WCRP_Butler.pdf

    EP Flux Re-analysis Tool -http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/epflux/ ( new toy to mess around with !)

    Just spotted some EP papers, brain gave up.. !

    C28garfinkelW32B.pdf

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    Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

    Worth a browse, ECMWF recently had an annual seminar, papers from which are all listed on this page.

    Who says weather geeks are boring they even kick things off with a Monday night cocktail party !!

    http://www.ecmwf.int...ions/index.html

    This one is excellent.

    Scaife.pdf

    Edited by lorenzo
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    Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

    Couple more from same archive, good to find them in presentation form versus having to grind through a proper academic paper..

    ENSO and Europe (2010)

    Scaife - Enso(1).pdf

    MJO Impact on European Weather (2010) http://www.ecmwf.int...ions/Vitart.pdf

    ENSO and ENSO Teleconnections (2012) http://www.ecmwf.int...tations/Kim.pdf

    Model Layers and Resolution (2012) http://www.ecmwf.int...ions/Takaya.pdf

    Edited by lorenzo
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