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chionomaniac

Technical Teleconnective Papers

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Around this time of year I often search out new papers to assist in winter forecasting. However, quite often I lose the links to these papers by the time winter arrives.

So, I think it makes sense to have a drop off zone for these type of papers that I and others come across. Please post in here any abstracts or PDF links that you may find of interest.

A brief description of the paper would be most welcome.

( No climate change papers please)

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And to start off here is an abstract on a paper to be verified soon.

This suggests that Vortex splitting events in the stratosphere are more likely to give colder outbreaks over NA and Eurasia than displacement events.

A strong link exists between stratospheric variability and anomalous weather patterns at the Earth's surface. Specifically, during extreme variability of the Arctic polar vortex termed a "weak vortex event", anomalies can descend from the upper stratosphere to the surface on timescales of weeks. Subsequently the outbreak of cold-air events have been noted in high Northern Latitudes, as well as a quadrapole pattern in surface temperature over the Atlantic and western European sectors. It is currently not understood why certain events descend to the surface while others do not, although this may be associated with the scale of vertically propagating Rossby waves which cause the initial vortex perturbation. In this study we demonstrate that the subdivision of weak vortex events into vortex displacements and vortex splits has important implications for tropospheric weather patterns on weekly-monthly timescales. Using reanalysis data we find that vortex splitting events play a highly significant role on surface weather with positive temperature anomalies over eastern North-America of more than 1.5K, and negative anomalies over Eurasia of up to -3K. Associated with this is an increase in tropospheric blocking over the Pacific basin and a decrease over the Atlantic/European sector. The corresponding signals are far weaker during displacement events, although ultimately they prove to be the cause of cold-air outbreaks over North America. Owing to the predictability and importance of stratosphere-troposphere coupling for medium-range weather forecasts, our findings suggest the need for such forecasting systems to correctly identify the type of stratospheric variability, otherwise surface responses cannot be accurately reproduced.

(Bolded by me)

http://www.nwra.com/.../abstract1.html

Edited by chionomaniac
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This next paper suggests that SSW's are more likely in ENSO event years rather than ENSO neutral years. Interestingly, this is true of both El Nino events and La Nina events.

I have extracted interesting info below about El Nino years

. During an El Niño winter, it is wellâ€

established that (1) temperatures are colder than normal in

the tropical stratosphere and warmer than normal in the

polar stratosphere; (2) ozone concentrations are anomalously low in the tropics and anomalously high at the pole,

reflecting an enhanced Brewerâ€Dobson circulation [Randel

et al., 2009; Cagnazzo et al., 2009]; and (3) the planetary

wave flux into the stratosphere is enhanced resulting in a

weakerâ€thanâ€normal stratospheric polar vortex [van Loon

and Labitzke, 1987; Garcíaâ€Herrera et al., 2006; Garfinkel

and Hartmann, 2008].

http://www.columbia.edu/~lmp/paps/butler+polvani-GRL-2011.pdf

And the follow up paper suggests why El Nino and La nIna events may be matched

http://www.columbia.edu/~lmp/paps/garfinkel+etal-JGR-2012-revised.pdf

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A paper on the positioning of blocking highs and their relationship to the upward propagation of planetary waves.

http://www.atmos.rca...11JC-BHs-PW.pdf

Previous studies have suggested the importance of blocking high (BH)

development for the occurrence of stratospheric sudden warming (SSW),

while there is a recent study that failed to identify their statistical

linkage. Through composite analysis applied to high-amplitude

anticyclonic anomaly events observed around every grid point over the

extratropical Northern Hemisphere, the present study reveals distinct

geographical de- pendence of BH influence on upward propagation of

planetary waves (PWs) into the stratosphere. Tropospheric BHs that

develop over the Euro-Atlantic sector tend to en- hance upward PW

propagation, leading to the warming in the polar stratosphere and, in

some occasions, to major SSW events. In contrast, the upward PW

propagation tends to be suppressed by BHs developing over the western

Pacific and the Far East, resulting in the polar stratospheric cooling.

This dependence is found to arise mainly from the sensi- tivity of the

interference between the climatological PWs and upward-propagating

Rossby wave packets emanating from BHs to their geographical locations.

This study also reveals that whether a BH over the eastern Pacific and

Alaska can enhance or re- duce the upward PW propagation is

case-dependent. It is suggested that BHs that induce the stratospheric

cooling can weaken statistical relationship between BHs and SSWs

A video here from a workshop on SSWs from Kyoto, Japan.

http://www.ustream.t...corded/20636442

I can edit out the video link if you want to keep this strictly papers though?

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I can edit out the video link if you want to keep this strictly papers though?

No all contributions like this are welcome thanks.

I haven't had a chance to go through all the Kyoto papers yet!

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From Sparc newsletter Jan 2012

http://www.sparc-climate.org/fileadmin/customer/6_Publications/Newsletter_PDF/38_SPARCnewsletter_Jan2012.pdf

Extract 1:

Within the same theme, A. Scaife addressed challenges and progress in prediction for regional spatial scales on a

wide range of timescales. The importance

of prediction for monthly to decadal timescales in conjunction with understanding

the effects of climate changes is underlined

by the incidence of large impact events

(e.g., floods, droughts, cold periods) that

are associated with seasonal to decadal

scale variability that accompanies the

more slowly varying climate signal. Predictions for months to years must rely on

both accurate measures of the initial state

and its uncertainty as well as on accurate

estimates of changes in climate forcing

mechanisms (“boundary values†such as

changes in the radiatively active components of atmospheric composition). In recent years considerable progress has been

made in understanding key processes that

influence monthly and seasonal predictability. These include improved understanding and modelling of the coupling

between tropical and extratropical intraseasonal oscillations such as the MaddenJulian Oscillation (MJO) and the North

Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the lagged

coupling between stratospheric sudden

warmings (SSWs) and tropospheric circulation anomalies, and predictability of

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

events and their effect on weather patterns

(rainfall) both in the tropics and the extratropics. There is now evidence that more

accurate initialisation improves longrange predictions, particularly in the tropics. However long range predictability

of extratropical weather events is generally poor. Some improvements have been

achieved in making skilful prediction of

the occurrence of high-impact weather

events such as the numbers of hurricanes

and the frequency of hot days. Further improvements in extended range forecasting

are expected to emerge from the results of

international activities such as the CMIP5

decadal hindcast activity

Extract 2:

B. Dong’s work was motivated by a

change in interannual NAO variability in

the late 1970s, which was characterised

by an eastward shift of the NAO centre

of action. His analysis showed a downstream extension of climate anomalies

associated with the NAO. Using Hadley

Centre model experiments, he showed

that both SST and CO2

changes independently force an eastward shift in interannual NAO variability, and found that

the effects of SST changes could be understood in terms of mean changes in the

troposphere while those due to CO2

could

not. The implication is that stratospheric

changes may play an important role in

the observed eastward shift in interannual NAO variability and related climate

anomalies.

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Have you subscribed to strat_list Chio?

I signed up for it about 2-3 years ago with the intention of improving my stratospheric knowledge, but having gotten so caught up in all the polar and sea ice stuff I just haven't been able to give it as much time as I'd like.

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Have you subscribed to strat_list Chio?

I signed up for it about 2-3 years ago with the intention of improving my stratospheric knowledge, but having gotten so caught up in all the polar and sea ice stuff I just haven't been able to give it as much time as I'd like.

I have now thanks!

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That is a good find.. Cat among the Pigeons then...

Here is the link to the Met Office's new toy GloSea4 http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/7/3/034031/

What do you make of the enhanced profiling from 50km to 80km Chiono? A small step or a stage for them to factor in things talked about readily on the SSW thread, Zonal wind reversal, EP Flux?

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That is a good find.. Cat among the Pigeons then...

Here is the link to the Met Office's new toy GloSea4 http://iopscience.io...326/7/3/034031/

What do you make of the enhanced profiling from 50km to 80km Chiono? A small step or a stage for them to factor in things talked about readily on the SSW thread, Zonal wind reversal, EP Flux?

I think that it is a small but important step. Modelling the tropospheric impact of stratospheric changes is a welcome step forward and todays news regarding this is important. To hear Steve Wright on radio 2 talking about SSW's today was very surreal.
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This may be a vintage paper but it's a goodie..

http://www.sciencema.../5542/581.short

I am sad enough to have the links to the whole amount of a lot of these papers, l!

http://www.nwra.com/resumes/baldwin/pubs/baldwin_dunkerton_2001.pdf

I have to say that this one is very comprehensive regarding stratospheric polar vortices:

http://www.columbia.edu/~lmp/paps/waugh+polvani-PlumbFestVolume-2010.pdf

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Waugh & Polvani got me onto EP Flux.. a good work out for the brain ..estimated time frame to decipher... 2018.. !

Thanks for the link to the original above :)

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Waugh & Polvani got me onto EP Flux.. a good work out for the brain ..estimated time frame to decipher... 2018.. !

Thanks for the link to the original above Posted Image

After last year with the EP flux being very unfavourable I think I have come on leaps and bounds in that respect!

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Found last Winter archive of randomness...

Limpasuvan_etal_JClim_04 The Life Cycle of the Northern Hemisphere Sudden Stratospheric Warmings

Limpasuvan_etal_JClim_04.pdf

El Niño, La Niña, and stratospheric sudden warmings:A re-evaluation in light of the observational record

butler+polvani-GRL-2011.pdf

Blocking precursors to stratospheric sudden warming events

martius+polvani+davies-GRL-2009.pdf

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Found last Winter archive of randomness...

Limpasuvan_etal_JClim_04 The Life Cycle of the Northern Hemisphere Sudden Stratospheric Warmings

Limpasuvan_etal_JClim_04.pdf

El Niño, La Niña, and stratospheric sudden warmings:A re-evaluation in light of the observational record

butler+polvani-GRL-2011.pdf

Blocking precursors to stratospheric sudden warming events

martius+polvani+davies-GRL-2009.pdf

I'll cough on the second paper.

(if you look above you'll see why -[already posted])

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Think its worthwhile to add a bookmark for the paper linked by SM and MH over the last 24 hours.

Impact of sea ice cover changes on the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric winter circulation.

http://www.tellusa.n...view/11595/html

Relationship of ENSO to stratospheric sudden warmings - slide with useful statistics

WCRP_Butler.pdf

EP Flux Re-analysis Tool -http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/epflux/ ( new toy to mess around with !)

Just spotted some EP papers, brain gave up.. !

C28garfinkelW32B.pdf

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Worth a browse, ECMWF recently had an annual seminar, papers from which are all listed on this page.

Who says weather geeks are boring they even kick things off with a Monday night cocktail party !!

http://www.ecmwf.int...ions/index.html

This one is excellent.

Scaife.pdf

Edited by lorenzo
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Couple more from same archive, good to find them in presentation form versus having to grind through a proper academic paper..

ENSO and Europe (2010)

Scaife - Enso(1).pdf

MJO Impact on European Weather (2010) http://www.ecmwf.int...ions/Vitart.pdf

ENSO and ENSO Teleconnections (2012) http://www.ecmwf.int...tations/Kim.pdf

Model Layers and Resolution (2012) http://www.ecmwf.int...ions/Takaya.pdf

Edited by lorenzo

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