Summer Here? (Warm Spell Discussion)

[Milhouse]

We are almost about to say goodbye to the abomination that was the first half of Summer 2012. One last cool and showery today then its all change as high pressure builds and could potentially stick around for some time. Couldnt be better timing either with the summer holidays and Olympics just around the corner.

There were a few minor wobbles from the models along the way. For a time, the low to the northwest on Sunday was forecast to be further south meaning a warm and windy day for many. In recent days it has shifted north making for a much warmer and less windy day on Sunday. It also means that the heat will last into the first part of the week too.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Tomorrow looks like producing a fair number of showers according to the latest GFS despite higher pressure. Shower activity was limited today by cloud cover from remnants of fronts so perhaps tomorrow will be sunnier to begin with, in turn allowing more widespread heavy and locally thundery showers. Not that I'm particularly bothered by this...

The heat into next week may retreat SE more quickly judging by the latest trend in the model outputs although if this does happen it will also mean that the frontal system gets out of the way more quickly, with most places possibly bright and quite warm again by midweek. The margins between a warm sunny spell and a cool cloudy one are often quite slim in these situations with an Atlantic high, but if the high is oriented such that the majority of the cool cloudy stuff gets shunted out into the North Sea, the setup is capable of bringing plenty of sunshine and moderate warmth (e.g. the period 11th-16th July 1989 that Millhouse referenced in the model output thread).

[Summer Sun]

If its sun and warm weather you like then head to Jersey lots of sun and warm / hot weather there over the next 10 days

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/3042091

[Milhouse]

If its sun and warm weather you like then head to Jersey lots of sun and warm / hot weather there over the next 10 days

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/3042091

Lovely run of sun symbols there. Hopefully the rest of the UK can be the same to boost the sunshine total before the month is over..

[A Winter's Tale]

If its sun and warm weather you like then head to Jersey lots of sun and warm / hot weather there over the next 10 days

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/3042091

Indeed summer sun, very nice looking weather for Jersey indeed. It really is a fantastic relief for the jet stream to be finally moving northwards to it's usual position and for us to have a break from this deluge that's caused lots of problems and a made a lot of people miserable. I just hope that Scotland can get some good summer weather too. Even when you have a shocking first half of summer, you can never right off good summer weather and an excellent second half to this summer could really balance things really nicely.

[Jon Somerset]

Good heavens -all forecasts expect at least a week of settled weather in these part bar a few showers on Wednesday. Decent mid-20's temperatures too. Hooray!!!!!!

[Bottesford]

Yes isn't it wonderful - finally time to get out of 'winter mode' of hiding inside and time to get a brief few weeks of outdoor weather!

[conor123]

So jealous of you southerners and easterners! we ALWAYS end up the wrong side of the divide and get the worst possible setup here.

I see the 18z is continuing the trend of moving Mondays low southwards, at this rate it will be a washout here >.<

[SP1986]

Doubt it'll be a washout, but drizzle may be a problem for us further North. But living up here in these situations, you often accept that youll only likely get the odd sunny, relatively warm day, then back to wet, dull weather.

[Cloudwatcher]

"The Return Of Summer"...........for the South maybe, anticipating another week of overcast, drizzly dross for my neck of the woods...summers over as far as I'm concerned now. Suppose we did have two decent sunny days in March and three in May. Definitely been spoilt for sunshine this year.......not.

[johnholmes]

Much like the comments from some folk with about 40-45% of the winter left!

Sharp turn arounds can and do occur.

NOTHING in ANY model suggests summer is over even in the meteorological sense, ie 31 August; perhaps overall the long term teleconnections just about favour what GP suggested in his summer forecast.

To say summer is over, excuse my bluntness, is a daft remark at this stage-its the 20th July=10+31 days of official 'summer' left with 50 days (including today) now past.

[Cloudwatcher]

Much like the comments from some folk with about 40-45% of the winter left!

Sharp turn arounds can and do occur.

NOTHING in ANY model suggests summer is over even in the meteorological sense, ie 31 August; perhaps overall the long term teleconnections just about favour what GP suggested in his summer forecast.

To say summer is over, excuse my bluntness, is a daft remark at this stage-its the 20th July=10+31 days of official 'summer' left with 50 days (including today) now past.

Accepted that in terms of time to run, summer is not over. But traditionally here, our best chances of sunshine and settled weather have always been May and June (Both of which of course have been wash-outs for us). Based on the past 6 years regarding Augusts here, it would be highly unusual for us to have a stable one with consistent warmth and sunshine. On past form, August in this neck of the woods is dominated by Atlantic fronts, bringing generally warm but in the main overcast, showery conditions to the area.

[johnholmes]

I hope this year breaks the pattern of 6 years and you get a more summery month-good luck-sorry if I came across as a bit confrontational

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Judging by the GFS it doesn't even look like will get above 17c here

[Cloudwatcher]

I hope this year breaks the pattern of 6 years and you get a more summery month-good luck-sorry if I came across as a bit confrontational

Nah John it's fine. To be honest I'm just (like a lot of people) thoroughly fed up and depressed with the current patterns, and can't forsee any significant change in the near future. Want to be pleasantly proved wrong of course. Have a good day :-)

[Milhouse]

BBC weather for London now showing 29c for Tuesday so theres every chance we could see 30c somewhere. GFS is now showing 25c for Tuesday and 26c for Wednesday and Thursday so at last its starting to creep up.

Edited July 20, 2012 by Milhouse

[SP1986]

Despite the hype surrounding the upcoming more 'settled' pattern, for us guys further north, certainly, outdoor activities you would associate with summer will be difficult to achieve under cloud and rain, certainly up here not the rosy conditions predicted further south. I'm inclined in that sense to say I'm not sure summer as we would like it, will be visiting north of say Stoke..

I little disappointing, however this is typical of normal weather patterns.

[Jon Somerset]

OK BBC weather just forecast loads of CLOUD with the higher temperatures with the divide further south than said before, but Met Office site cheerfully forecasting sun.

I am so confused,,,,,,,,,,

[Evening thunder]

The Met Office are going for some quite toasty temps in the south on Wednesday, and they have 25C reaching Manchester:

Might not be that easy to see, but it shows 29C in quite a few places in the south.

Edited July 21, 2012 by Stormmad26

[WheresTheSnow]

Going into next weekend, are we still looking at having cooler weather?

[Milhouse]

A very nice day out there with plenty of sunshine and no real indication of it clouding over just yet. Currently 18.6c and i suspect it will continue to rise for several hours as warmer air encroaches from the west.

[Milhouse]

The Met Office are going for some quite toasty temps in the south on Wednesday, and they have 25C reaching Manchester:

Might not be that easy to see, but it shows 29C in quite a few places in the south.

The first 30c of the summer looking a posibility.

[Summer Sun]

The beeb are now going for 30c in London on Wednesday

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2643743

[Milhouse]

The beeb are now going for 30c in London on Wednesday

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2643743

About time too

[Cloudwatcher]

BBC weather for London now showing 29c for Tuesday so theres every chance we could see 30c somewhere. GFS is now showing 25c for Tuesday and 26c for Wednesday and Thursday so at last its starting to creep up.

I will be massively surprised if we see above 17c here next week, on current form...