Summer Here? (Warm Spell Discussion)

[firefly]

The first rule of reading anything in the news is that you must remember that it will almost certainly be exaggerated or mis-reported. This is because people who are doing the reporting will be non-specialist and don't really understand what it is they're reporting.

Take for example the Guardian's 'story' on disappearing snow caps on Scotland and England's mountains, which uses as its reference the book that I co-authored (Cool Brittania). Almost all of what is written is taken out of context, and some of the bits he's written off his own back are just plane lies or misunderstandings of what we wrote.

Unfortunately this sort of nonsense is peddled as fact ("it's in the paper, it must be true!") and Joe Public take them at their word.

[conor123]

No shocks the charts are downgrading the warmth with most of it staying over the continent now, were probably see easterly winds around the south of the high keeping the high uppers at bay in the channel after a warmish weekend and Monday.

[johnholmes]

The first rule of reading anything in the news is that you must remember that it will almost certainly be exaggerated or mis-reported. This is because people who are doing the reporting will be non-specialist and don't really understand what it is they're reporting.

Take for example the Guardian's 'story'on disappearing snow caps on Scotland and England's mountains, which uses as its reference the book that I co-authored (Cool Brittania). Almost all of what is written is taken out of context, and some of the bits he's written off his own back are just plane lies or misunderstandings of what we wrote.

Unfortunately this sort of nonsense is peddled as fact ("it's in the paper, it must be true!") and Joe Public take them at their word.

so very true about mis quoting-I gave up with the media, press, tv or radio long before I left public service work with Met

[Milhouse]

It feels fairly summery today with no sign of the heavy rain that was predicted. Top temperatures of about 21c. A big improvement on what was forecast.

[AderynCoch]

I very much doubt it will reach these temperatures at all.

Me too to be honest.

Even if it does push 30C I'm currently doubtful anywhere outside the SE will get anywhere near that. The Azores High isn't all that reliable actually: if it doesn't spread far enough north you end up with cool westerlies on its northern flank. A good solid Euro High is the best bet for widespread warmth, though I don't think we've seen one of them come into play during the summer quarter since July 2006 (when it looked like it would never disappear). Late September/early October last year and the last week of May this year are good examples of when it has happened recently.

[IanR]

I think I might have jinxed the warm weather,

for here anyway

just posted on facebook about the predicted 31c by the bbc

it will probably be cloudy and 21c instead now

oh dear, I will get a lynching

yup, gone and jinxed it, knew I should have kept quiet 31c is impossible here thesedays anyway

Edited July 18, 2012 by IanR

[Sainsbo]

Oops, didn;t see this thread, and made one about the same thing in Severe Weather Discussion. Anyone know how to delete topics?

And the temps for Jersey have been upgraded to 34C now.

[Bottesford]

No worries I've closed it for you.

[chionomaniac]

I would almost say that the GFS 12Z is the best run of the summer for sun lovers!

[Nick L]

I would almost say that the GFS 12Z is the best run of the summer for sun lovers!

That's not exactly hard to achieve though, let's be honest :lol:

[Summer Sun]

Excellent update and upgrade for us summer fans tonight from GFS the start of August looks iffy but lets not worry about that yet lets enjoy this spell of proper summer weather

[Evening thunder]

I'd say the ECM from last night and this mornings GEM run were perhaps slightly better - widespread uppers over 15C (although that might not be to everyone's appeal) and a convective/thunderstorm risk approaching towards the end.

Nice to see an upgrade again from the GFS 12Z though, hopefully it won't downgrade too much.

[Cheese Rice]

I would almost say that the GFS 12Z is the best run of the summer for sun lovers!

Indeed!

I hope it's right, can finally make use of all that garden furniture...

[Polar Maritime]

I wouldn't mess with him

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I'm not a fan of sunny weather, but surely next week will be cloudy due to convection with the high in the Atlantic? models seem to be trending the high to our west mid next week,

hope so because hot and sunny dosent do it for me

[conor123]

I'm sorry to be a debbie downer but the 28-32c shown on BBC is utter rubbish, ECM will probably be right as usual with cloud feeding in from the north west and the high to far south west after a sunny weekend.

[ZONE 51]

Looking foward to a taste of next week this weekend here with dry warm weather!

I'm confident that we are seeing a pattern change now, once it does it then it's done for a while i think, this being more high pressure in charge, i would say that the outlook is much much drier and warmer, and i won't say heatwave just yet as the high placement can change the temperatures, but it could turnout that next week we do develop a southern heatwave with warmth heading north.

Edited July 19, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Radiating Dendrite]

I would just like to say how USELESS the new BBC further range forecast is.

I have already seen a number of members on here get confused, thinking next week will bring 32c, when in fact the maximum temperature could be between 19c and 32c according to the BBC forecast.

It is confusing and quite frankly ridiculous! It hardly takes an Einstein to predict that in Summer maximum temperatures are likely to be between 19c and 32c. I am going to go out on a limb here and predict that Xmas day will have maximum temperatures between -2c and 11c.

Ridiculous BBC..........sort it out and stop wasting money!

Edited July 19, 2012 by Polar Attack

[Scorcher]

Agree to some extent about the BBC forecasts. It does seem to be really hard to find a site where the forecast temperatures actually reflect what is likely to happen more than a couple of days out- are there any out there? If I want to look at a simple forecast I tend to look at Weatheronline but the temperatures on there are often too low, in warm spells at least.

[Radiating Dendrite]

They all reflect the models though. That is why they are subject to such short term changes.

In terms of temps, I do not think it is feasible to look beyond 3 days, so many little things can have an impact, such as unexpected cloud cover for example.

[Milhouse]

Its nice to finally get some good high pressure domianted charts in summer for once, and not just temporary plumes. So many times during the last 5 years we have seen these sort of charts occur in Spring and Autumn and we'd say if only it was summer. Well the wait is over.

[conor123]

Looks like same as usual here urgh should of known a sunny spell of weather would be to much for Cloudford to take, dreary low cloud toppling in from the North West by Monday here then the high sinking south westwards to allow a stream of murk through the cheshire gap the rest of the week, cursed is an understatement :lol:

[Alex]

Agree to some extent about the BBC forecasts. It does seem to be really hard to find a site where the forecast temperatures actually reflect what is likely to happen more than a couple of days out- are there any out there? If I want to look at a simple forecast I tend to look at Weatheronline but the temperatures on there are often too low, in warm spells at least.

Weather onlines 7 day forecast is a carbon copy of the latest GFS run, it's rather disappointing that they don't seem to take into account other models and that in turn means the maxes are lower than expected and mins lower.

[Derp Patrol]

About time.. so far it has been worse than 2007. Absolutely awful first half of 'summer' with temperatures struggling to reach the low 20s now let alone the average of 24C

Hopefully this is the start of a long settled spell

[toggerob]

Its a relief that good weather is on the way, a week or more of average temps and not a breath of torrential rain in sight. Already scrubbing the mud off the walking boots and booking campsites around the Peaks in preperation of some decent hiking weather. Hopefully the tourist industry will get a last-minute boost, with everyone wanting to avoid the olympics on TV 24/7 and heading to them hills.