Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 11th July 2012>

[mackerel sky]

Miserable here, but nothing to lighten the mood literally. Some impressive skies about 8pm, but same old.

[IanR]

This year the north have got more FACT.

the north east

[Robbie Garrett]

Hah, we did get some heavy showers in regent street. Not sure if there was T & L.

But its annoying as if i pretty much missed 2 busy storm days, my total could be into the teens already.

Always time for. more right??

Oh mate....there's been some awesome lightning displays although largely south of London.

Fingers crossed for more this summer is what I say

[Nick F]

Was following the backsides of some pretty lively storms over south/central London on the way home from Heathrow this evening. One cell, which had what looked like an intense hail core judging by the white trails hanging down, was firing out pretty frequent cgs (by UK cool airmass standards).

Some photos of the cumulonimbus clouds this afternoon that were moving east over central/SE London looking east from my office in west London.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Well, what can I say. After the heaviest rain event I've known here in my lifetime happened on the 7th, and a thunderstorm on the 6th, perfectly timed for the one week in hundreds I (but not parents + brother) was out the country on the 3rd-10th July, In which the stream and river flooded which I find very interesting when happens being interested in river systems and also severe weather, I thought interesting weather surely must be trying to avoid me. Indeed I was not at home last time it did this in a big way on the 30th October 2008 (the first in ages).

Also 2 decent thunderstorms while in exams or windowless rooms in the last few years (A high percentage of all total storms in that time)

Then today my mum drove to a town to take my gran up to see relatives. I could have gone but was a bit tired after arriving home yesterday, and thought it just looked like a 'thundery shower' day and here seemed to have a chance. What's more if I had gone here would surely have had a thunderstorm. Guess which town that was. Yep, you guessed it, Reigate! The town that looks to have at least 2 major thunderstorms today with dramatic reports coming from them!

This shows that interesting weather has proved that it usually tries to avoid me at all costs. The statistical likelihood of what's happened happening must be very small, and with anything that could be controlled/done by a person would be pretty strong evidence. It seemed to have a minor error on the 28th June at 3:30am though but that was soon compensated for.

I have decided I will probably go out and chase in the coming days and find the weather, although no doubt it will mean a thunderstorm magically hits my house. I've got to laugh really or else I don't know what I'd do.

Some nice cumulus/distant CB's tobay but only a brief shower at my house.

I empathise with you as I had a very similar phase during 2002-05. Cleadon in Tyne and Wear had two of its biggest snow events since February 1991 while I was at Lancaster, while Lancaster (which had no more than a dusting of snow while I was there) had about three centimetres on Christmas Day 2004, while I was in Cleadon and got precisely nowt. It was a similar story with thunderstorms- I was stuck in the library during a thunderstorm on 18 June 2004, was in Tyneside when Lancaster got hit by thunderstorms in August 2004, and was in Lancaster when Tyneside got hit on the 19th June 2005.

Since then I've had a phase when dramatic/exciting weather seemed to target me (from 2007 through to mid 2010, peaking in early to mid 2009, ironically when I went to nearby Exeter) and have had mixed luck since then. I can only say that your luck will surely turn around at some stage, even though it might seem that you are cursed right now!

[Arnie Pie]

Cell that came through Birmingham today....not as exiting as what`s been going on Darnsaff

but hey.....

load music warning Santana

Edited July 11, 2012 by Arnie Pie

[HighPressure]

As many have said that rain was some of the heaviest if not the heaviest I have ever seen. I don't know if anyone has any Surrey/Kent readings for just what rate p/hr it peeked at? Every raindrop was like a cup of water just incredible, I know hail stone can hurt but this rain was like being hit by stones?

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

We've had absolutely nothing here, everything has just skirted us by literally less than a mile, and that produced no thunder at all. I was placed right in the middle of a no storm zone between Beds/Herts and N Lincs by the looks of it. GUTTED !

[chionomaniac]

Wonderful storms today. I have a video on my phone of a bowing shelf cloud with green hail shafts behind around 5:10 in East Grinstead. (Look at the radar image around this time)

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

OMG. Is it only me that thinks the arctic ice could be virtually gone by the beginning of august? Ive been checking sea temps for ages now, and i swear down I've never seen that much open water up there as i am doing right this minute. Greenland is surrounded by totally ice free water!

[Neilsouth]

Thunderstorms and lightning in Essex/London today, huge booms and roaring rain on the building roof . Then i drive back near midnight to see flashes way out to sea along the coast, great

[ZONE 51]

Wow, what a fantastic few days of great clouds and downpours.

But it was Wednesday that hit the top of the charts for me, with an incredible storm brushing so close yet just to far, but not to far to view the incredible developments of the storm, one of the best ive ever seen, with deep blue above showing the top so clear, thunder was deep booming, this was around 330-4pm, viewed from Walton-On-Thames - looking to south (photos are from mobile phone from first storm of the day)

--

Then later another pulse moved in this time around 5pm giving a downpour with some quite close loud thunder, this was in Weybridge, and i was told the storm was loud in Walton where i had just come from!

Edited July 11, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Paul Sherman]

Not a bad day all in all with 3 Storms moving through just south of here at 2 hour intervals from 12pm until 430pm, the best was the 2nd one and the best structure was the last one, nothing directly overhead but that allows for better structure shots anyway, the best storms as expected were through Surrey and Sussex though with some impressive Hail near Guildford just shy of Golfball sized (2") or 20mm.

- Most active storm at 1415z as it was over the Thames Estuary to my South

- Nice guster on the 1630z Storm, Not as active but pretty all the same

The first Storm I went North for and got some decent pictures over some Cornfields, looked a bit linear but nice contrasts of colours all the same, on other Sd card so will upload later.

Paul S

[Nick F]

Looks like another fairly decent risk of storms tomorrow and Saturday across S England, S Wales, Midlands and E Anglia. Vertical shear looks very weak, so storms not really organising much structure or threatening much in the way of severe weather. Hail and gusty winds likely with any storms and hopefully will be some nice cloudscapes around in the clean rPm airmass.

[dallas]

NIce pics there Paul, pretty good for the UK I think

[Coast]

A good day yesterday (Well I got a few cracks of thunder!) and today looks to be fairly quiet over the UK with no dedicated sites forecasting anything convective for us.

So do we look toward tomorrow then?

GFS says yes!!!

Round 2 and maybe a repeat of yesterday?

SBCAPE high again:

Lapse rates to the SW:

and another high shear area in the same place as yesterday:

The HiRLAM charts have a similar position but nothing like the intensity, so one to watch tomorrow yet again.

[dallas]

Jet stream looks like it's going nowhere for a while, so I suppose more of the same for a while

[Radiating Dendrite]

There is a lovely sounding cell to my north over Sutton/Coulsdon - cloud structure around the outside is impressive with lots of low level stuff whipping in towards it. Just seen a 747 from heathrow taking a hard left as it came towards it.

Looking to my east though there is another large looking cell and its building nicely - just taken a look on NW R and it's just started to chuck out some rain so maybe storm 3 is on the way

Only just been able to get on here. Wow.....what an evening, one I will not forget.

Me and the storm you mention had a run in shall we say! I got home at 6.15pm and thought I would go for a walk (with the wife). We walked upto Old Coulsdon and as soon as we got there, we could hear shotgun thunder! Then all of a sudden there was a huge flash of lightning and thunder straight after!! I looked up and we were literally right under the thunderstorm, the next five minutes were insane, I have never core punched a thunderstorm, nevermind on foot! The rain was torrential and then all of sudden the hail started, the hail was mighty impressive, around 1p size and I can tell you it really hurt! We had pretty much zero shelter opportunities. Once the storm had passed (we were drenched) we then managed to stumble into another storm and core punched again! More thunder, lightning and hail, we tried to run (nearing home) but the pavements were full of ice! Lots of roads were flooded and when we got back home, the garden was full of hail! Even two hours after, the majority of the hail was still on the ground.

All I can say is wow!

Edited July 12, 2012 by Polar Attack

[Coast]

Jet stream looks like it's going nowhere for a while, so I suppose more of the same for a while

Seems to go quieter after Saturday but then this appears on the horizon, from GFS for next Thursday/Friday:

Yes I know - a million miles away but something to follow if and when it still appears in 5 days time.......

[Evening thunder]

Thanks, Glad to know I'm not alone!

I also forgot to mention of course I took my storm-shield to Holland with me, and had been quite excited at CAPE/LI charts showing near 2000 CAPE/-6 LI, however in the end there was lines of storms to my west one day, and the east the next day, and to the north and south at times like overnight. All storms missing me apart from a few rumbles from what could have been a thundery UK shower, although got to see some 'ok' convection.

I am also hoping for some interesting convective or rain events before this unsettled weather ends now as I have missed the main event(s) that add interest to this cool wet summer. Interestingly here this summer has been far wetter than 2007 as I don't think July and August were that wet locally, and June didn't have anywhere near 186mm (this June's total!). I think this summer is a bit more interesting here though I've missed some of the most interesting stuff.

Thanks, yeah hopefully my luck will improve, just doesn't seem like it sometimes! Although I was quite lucky with the 20th December 2010 snow event, with about a foot of snow (including some previous accumulations) centred around this area. There had been a chance of me going away for a couple days then too so I was glad I didn't! (think I tricked the weather Gods there!).

I remember around then in June 2009, when Exeter had a early morning thunderstorm but I slept through any distant rumbles, and then Exeter had near 100mm of rain in spots that day I think while I had about 30mm. Then there was the 15th June which was the only decent thunderstorm I remember here that year which occurred during my exam. Overall still not a bad month with reasonable variability I think.

To be slightly more on-topic I'm hoping tomorrow and possibly Saturday will provide some convective interest around this area.

(I have deleted the text in the quotes so my reply doesn't take up the whole page)

Edited July 12, 2012 by Stormmad26

[Jane Louise]

Good charts for tomorrow and Saturday for my area but the Met Office states only patchy rain for me. Also have a weather warning out for tomorrow.Guess that'll be for patchy rain then lol.

[Karl83]

Nice Chart - http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs396.gif But we all know where the action will occurr, if it does.

[snow raven]

Very disapointed with the storm action yesterday afternoon/evening. It seems they were either to the North of my location or too far South. (SE1 during the day, DA7 after 6pm) Gutted

[Coast]

Well it did rain a lot yesterday.....

http://youtu.be/id7o6G1Vp44

and hail!

[Radiating Dendrite]

Well it did rain a lot yesterday.....

http://youtu.be/id7o6G1Vp44

and hail!

Yes, I happened to be taking my walk during that hail storm! I can confirm it hurt.