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Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 11th July 2012>

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OK, it's a fast moving day again and some along the English Channel coast are doing quite well. Please keep the conversation relevant, even though it's all far too exciting!!!!! clapping.gif

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Looks like the biggest potential for thundery activity is in the usual areas today- Lincolnshire, East Anglia, parts of the S and SE. However there's been a few rumbles in the latest crop of showers in N Yorkshire and possibility of more rumbles to come in this afternoon's showers.

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Just in case anybody is in the area please note the rotation in this pokey little cell.

This is my post taken from the other thread.

Confirmed Thunder due north of Newbury, possible signs of rotation too? The cell kept itself intact all way from South of the Cotswold, thankyou weather gods.

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

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There are some mighty fine Cb's around London at the moment - from my vantage point, mainly to the N, E and S...sadly, the West is looking fairly clear at the moment, although likely to change in the coming hours.

Good luck one and all :yahoo:

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TORRO finally have a forecast out:

TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION 2012/011

A TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION has been issued at 1015GMT on Wednesday 11th July 2012

Valid from/until: 1015GMT – 2000GMT on Wednesday 11th July 2012 for the following regions of the United Kingdom & Eire:

post-6667-0-01517700-1342012271.gif

Wales Central and southern England

THREATS

Hail up to 15mm; wind gusts to 50mph; CG lightning; isolated, weak tornadoes.

SYNOPSIS

Well-mixed polar maritime airmass is in place across the area, with a trough/cold front moving ESE. The exit region of a mid-level wind speed max will increase lift across the area. Deep layer and low-level shear are marginal but sufficient for convection to organise into small lines/clusters.

Main threat today will be squally gusts to around 50mph with stronger cores. Hail to around 15mm diameter is also possible. Given the general undirectional wind fields, tornadoes seem rather unlikely. However, local vorticity streamers from topography and/or cell interactions could produce isolated, brief tornadoes.

post-6667-0-01517700-1342012271_thumb.gi

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Couple of heavy showers passed through. Haven't had a single storm this year, all the action has been just to the north.

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Why am I not holding my breath? I do wish TORRO, Skywarn etc would stop including East Anglia, as they are wrong about 99.9999% of the time!

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It's all going on down here!

** NexStorm TRAC Report generated 11/07/2012 14:20:33

Tracking 3 thunderstorms from the Isle of Wight

-------------------------------------------------------

Thunderstorm ID R-2468 detected 11:20

Storm location bearing 69.2 dgr distance 44 mi

Last recorded activity 14:19

Intensity class Weak

Intensity trend Undetermined

Current strikerate 4/minute

Peak strikerate 11/minute

Total recorded strikes 329

Cloud-Ground strikes 100 - 30.40%

Intracloud strikes 229 - 69.60%

-- Strike type distribution --

Positive Cloud-Ground [+CG] 23 - 6.99%

Negative Cloud-Ground [-CG] 77 - 23.40%

Positive Intracloud [+IC] 132 - 40.12%

Negative Intracloud [-IC] 97 - 29.48%

-------------------------------------------------------

Thunderstorm ID E-3646 detected 13:26

Storm location bearing 289.8 dgr distance 86 mi

Last recorded activity 14:13

Intensity class Weak

Intensity trend No change

Current strikerate 3/minute

Peak strikerate 5/minute

Total recorded strikes 60

Cloud-Ground strikes 14 - 23.33%

Intracloud strikes 46 - 76.67%

-- Strike type distribution --

Positive Cloud-Ground [+CG] 5 - 8.33%

Negative Cloud-Ground [-CG] 9 - 15.00%

Positive Intracloud [+IC] 27 - 45.00%

Negative Intracloud [-IC] 19 - 31.67%

-------------------------------------------------------

Thunderstorm ID G-5112 detected 13:51

Storm location bearing 57.6 dgr distance 44 mi

Last recorded activity 14:20

Intensity class Weak

Intensity trend Intensifying

Current strikerate 4/minute

Peak strikerate 6/minute

Total recorded strikes 47

Cloud-Ground strikes 15 - 31.91%

Intracloud strikes 32 - 68.09%

-- Strike type distribution --

Positive Cloud-Ground [+CG] 2 - 4.26%

Negative Cloud-Ground [-CG] 13 - 27.66%

Positive Intracloud [+IC] 26 - 55.32%

Negative Intracloud [-IC] 6 - 12.77%

-------------------------------------------------------

*** TRAC Report end - NexStorm V1.8.0.7025:PCI

post-6667-0-70935500-1342012963_thumb.pn

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Must be some serious flooding around North of Bournemouth, Christchurch and into southern New Forest area. Unrelenting rain and Thunder last few hours in that region.

All gone quiet at base camp but 4-5 rumbles were heard, a probable funnel which extended down and retreated back up in seconds (as per father, alas I was typing away) Also some brief hail.

gottolovethisweather

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Noooo....Radar subscription run out at14.00

Edit; Did I see a spheric indicated to my West?

edit;mmm......Telford way ....Thank you http://www.netweathe...=lightning;sess=

by the way...if anybody from admin is watching I immediately re-newed my subscription

Please............I don't want to spend an afternoon on Raintoday

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Why am I not holding my breath? I do wish TORRO, Skywarn etc would stop including East Anglia, as they are wrong about 99.9999% of the time!

Usually included in every warning. Nothing. Zip. Nice blue skies out there now. If anyone is capable of producing a composite image of lightening strikes since the beginning of June, then I think you would see a conspicious hole.

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Nice thunderstorm just past over, first slow moving, overhead storm this year :-)

Got a couple of very close rumbles on cam that I'll post later if i can and a couple of nice pics of the storm moving away.

Anymore today is just a bonus, well chuffed.

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Hi, Storm just moved through Clacton - with very heavy rain

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Couple of heavy showers passed through. Haven't had a single storm this year, all the action has been just to the north.

There I was thinking you lot to the south of us were right in the firing line for storms ! argh its a rather frustrating day tbh. Haven't had anything really in Peterborough

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Usually included in every warning. Nothing. Zip. Nice blue skies out there now. If anyone is capable of producing a composite image of lightening strikes since the beginning of June, then I think you would see a conspicious hole.

Be a big hole around Norwich too, bar the 2 or 3 strikes on 6th June if they were recorded. Very poor form!

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In keeping with the general theme of Summer 2012, the showers over Yorkshire, extending up into Northumberland, appear to have merged into an area of lighter and more continuous rain. Still, I can't grumble too much as I did at least get some thunder beforehand.

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Storm coming in here near Heathrow, thunder more frequent than yesterday's offering.

Some spectacular cloudscapes towards East London/Essex/Kent from my office on the 10th floor this afternoon, will try and post up some photos in abit.

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Line of showers to my west now in wales..

Will I.. Wont I ?

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Well first storm of 2012 here..... Rain was monsoonal at 2pmish then sun out then pitch dark but little rain but 15 bolts of lightening in 20 minutes and big booms..... Woopwoop.....

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Well, according to Look East's lunchtime forecast, there should be lots of heavy, thundery downpours interspersed with a 'few, brief' sunny intervals...Now, take away the 'thundery, downpours' and replace 'few, brief' with 'one big, long' and you'd get a far better picture of the way it's panned-out!laugh.png

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Shock horror, looks like we're missing out on another potential storm cell-.- God this year has been quite poor. Taking into account the amount of rain we've had, this year has to go down as one that has contained a very minimal amount of decent, beefy storms, in my area anyway. Lets hope it steps up towards the end of July/beginning of August.

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Some nice convection going up as it all drifts East away from me so looking good in that direction :) . One or two sferics detected to my West but showers are losing potency as they approach.

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Line of showers to my west now in wales..

Will I.. Wont I ?

Looking black just to the north of me here (just missed me - DOH!) - so yes you may well get a good pasting from that line of showers!

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