Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 7th July 2012>

[gottolovethisweather]

I'm looking at the one to your south and hoping it can maintain itself for the rest of its journey south south-eastwards.

Plenty of nice cloudscapes here but als no thunder, YET!

Lynxus, please be nice to us to Central Southern England and let that beast maintain itself for the next half hour or so. Currently this cell is over Swindon and Chippenham area and looks DAMN GOOD on radar.

I agree with the coasts are the places to be today, south and east it seems, at least south of the midlands that is.

Eyes to the west also Lynxus as you say.

Can see a small CB to my west. I think its gonna miss. But seems fairly heavy on the radar.

Still my eyes on the one that diverted due southeast of you, could become a monster!

Edited July 11, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[Arnie Pie]

Gone very dark here, raining heavily and gone very windy

That will be that big lump of convection thats gradually slipping south of my cameras

Never mind plenty more to come over and giving a chance for the temp to build.... you never know

Edit; just about to catch the edge of that cell now.....gusty big rain drops

Edited July 11, 2012 by Arnie Pie

[Norfolk Sheep]

Some nice cloudscapes with good convection here and there but occasional bursts of showery rain only - TS seem to happen ABN (Anywhere But Norfolk)

[Guenhwyvar]

Storm number 2 just started here..

[Purplepixii]

Apparently the MO have issued an amber warning for down here but for some stupid *^"%$) reason I can't view it on this netbook. Since my earlier post there have been a couple more rumbles and I wonder if we'll get any more? Hope so!

[Harry]

Lovely peel of thunder over London about 10 mins ago - cell continuing to grow as it moves east, goooooooorgeous black sky with signs of developing mamma.

[Coast]

Apparently the MO have issued an amber warning for down here but for some stupid *^"%$) reason I can't view it on this netbook. Since my earlier post there have been a couple more rumbles and I wonder if we'll get any more? Hope so!

Here we go PP:

Rain

Issued at: 1315 on Wed 11 Jul 2012

Valid from: 1520 on Wed 11 Jul 2012

Valid to: 2100 on Wed 11 Jul 2012

A band of heavy showers and thunderstorms accompanied by hail will continue to affect some south coastal counties of England through this afternoon and into the early evening. The public should be prepared for an increased risk of localised flooding and disruption to travel, particularly during today's rush hour. The showers should gradually ease from the west this evening.

[Stuart]

Not sure this been posted yet

SKYWARN UK SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #040

ISSUED: 1215UTC WEDNESDAY 11TH JULY 2012 (GJ/SM)

SKYWARN UK HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE FOLLOWING REGIONS:

CENTRAL ENGLAND

SOUTHERN ENGLAND

SOUTH EAST ENGLAND

***SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #039 IS STILL IN EFFECT FOR OTHER AREAS OF THE UK - SEE BELOW FOR WATCH DETAILS***

IN EFFECT FROM 1215UTC UNTIL 2359 WEDNESDAY 11TH JULY 2012

DIURNAL HEATING WITH RELATIVLY HIGH CAPE VALUES GENERATING SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER AFFECTING THE INDICATED REGIONS IN THE TIME PERIOD SPECIFIED. THREATS WITHIN THIS WATCH INCLUDE, BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO:

HEAVY RAIN...MODERATE HAIL...FLASH FLOODING...WEAK FUNNELS

DISCUSSION:

DIURNAL HEATING COUPLED WITH CAPE VALUES OF CLOSE TO 1000J/KG IS GENERATING STRONG CONVECTION ASSISTED BY WIND CONVERGENCE ACROSS SOUTHERN ENGLAND CURRENTLY. A SLACK WIND FLOW MEANS SLOW MOVING HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR ACROSS THE REGIONS SPECIFIED RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING. WEAK BUT POSSIBLY SUFFICIENT LLS MAY BE ENOUGH TO ORGANISE CELLS FOR FUNNELS AND/OR WEAK TORNADOES, WITH INCREASING DLS LATER IN THE WATCH PERIOD. SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED AND SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ALL FACTORS EXCEEDING ACTIVATION CRITERIA.

**Concurrent alerts continued***

SKYWARN UK SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #039

ISSUED: 0000UTC TUESDAY 10TH JULY 2012 (GJ/SM/GS)

SKYWARN UK HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE FOLLOWING REGIONS:

NORTHERN ENGLAND

MIDLANDS

EAST ANGLIA

SCOTLAND

IN EFFECT FROM 0000UTC TUESDAY 10TH UNTIL 2359UTC WEDNESDAY 11TH JULY 2012

DEVELOPING UPPER LOW GENERATING FRONTAL AND CONVERGENCE ZONES IN A SATURATED AIRMASS, ENHANCING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER AFFECTING THE INDICATED REGIONS IN THE TIME PERIOD SPECIFIED. THREATS WITHIN THIS WATCH INCLUDE, BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO:

HEAVY RAIN...FLASH FLOODING...LIGHTNING

DISCUSSION:

THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DESPITE A SATURATED AND SLACK ENVIRONMENT LIMITING THE CHANCES OF HAIL AND STRONG GUSTS, SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ENHANCE AN OTHERWISE BARELY UNSTABLE PROFILE. HEAVY AND SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY HOURS OF TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUCCEEDED BY ISOLATED SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS AS SOLAR HEATING INCREASES. AREAS OF ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN SCOTLAND MAY BE PRONE TO LOCALISED ACCUMULATIONS OF UPTO 30MM, WITH GREATER THAN 40MM POSSIBLE FROM SUCCESSIVE OR QUASI-STAIONARY PRECIPITATION CORES. GIVEN RECENT GROUND SATURATION AND A HIGH WATER TABLE, EXCESS SURFACE WATER AND RAPID RUN-OFF IS POSSIBLE LEADING TO FLASH FLOODS IN PRONE AREAS.

DURING WEDNESDAY A FURTHER LOW DEVELOPMENT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST INTRODUCES INCREASING LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR ALOFT, PROVIDING SUFFICENT INSTABILITY FOR FURTHER HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AREAS OF SCOTLAND AND NORTHERN ENGLAND STILL OVER-SATURATED FROM TUESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE RISK AND/OR COVERAGE OF EXCESS SURFACE WATER IN PRONE AREAS. THIS WATCH MAY BE UPDATED OR UPGRADED. PLEASE MONITOR WEATHER AND TRAVEL INFO AS NECESSARY.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED AND SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ALL FACTORS EXCEEDING ACTIVATION CRITERIA.

http://www.skywarn.org.uk/current

[Thundery wintry showers]

After a series of grey wet days in Sandhutton we're finally back to convective-looking skies today, sunny intervals and sharp showers, and the latest shower has produced four rumbles of thunder.

[gottolovethisweather]

Confirmed Thunder due north of Newbury, possible signs of rotation too? The cell kept itself intact all way from South of the Cotswold, thankyou weather gods.

Edited July 11, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[Coast]

New thread coming shortly folks!!!

[jamesbhx]

Thunder heard in Horsham/Gatwick vicinity a few minutes ago.

[Coast]

Here we go, a brand new one to fill yer boots with!!!

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/73856-uk-convective-general-discussion-forecasts-11th-july-2012/