Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 5th July 2012>

[IanR]

I can't tell at the minute - the lightning detector's not showing anything from this system, despite forumer confirmation to the contrary.

I can usually see distant lightning from storms over Cheshire at night(when they were more common) just had a few looks out of the side window but nothing, going to bed now

[Dean E]

Is that still "radar errors" in the english channel - they seem to be getting bigger and more defined.......

They are still errors, they seems to appear in these events every summer.

[Lynxus]

Might be a nice dry day in Gloucester at this rate. Might all end up north of here. Awesome

Might get the BBQ out.

[Dean E]

Yes, NAE having none of it ATM. GFS could well be off on one having seen that ensemble mean

I think the GFS was gone off on one too, another reason a nowcasting situation is ahead!

[Costa Del Fal]

NMM 18z looks to give the Midlands a real downpour tomorrow. NMM up till now mostly sent the heaviest rain up North but looks to have fallen in line with the others. Central and North Midlands (Both East and West Regions) could see big totals tomorrow and severe flooding. 20th July 2007 almost all over again.

Edited July 5, 2012 by Blizzards

[Lynxus]

They are still errors, they seems to appear in these events every summer.

Yep, Its called "AnaProp"

You can clearly see the directional lines pointing to one radar station having issues.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Right, to add to the confusion the WRF NMM delays the rain and pulls it further south......but the HIRLAM which was showing a southerly track now flips and pulls the precipitation north to look very similar to the GFS ensemble mean....

[Carl46Wrexham]

Lightning to my north east...distant thunder.

[Cheshire Freeze]

NMM 18z looks to give the Midlands a real downpour tomorrow. NMM up till now mostly sent the heaviest rain up North but looks to have fallen in line with the others. Central and North Midlands (Both East and West Regions) could see big totals tomorrow and severe flooding. 20th July 2007 almost all over again.

See my latest post....NMM does trend south BUT HIRLAM goes north and so does GFS ensemble mean

[Costa Del Fal]

See my latest post....NMM does trend south BUT HIRLAM goes north and so does GFS ensemble mean

Indeed. I think all models agree on the Midlands and southern parts of N England getting drenched anyhow. Id say modelling points slightly more to the Midlands copping the worst of it sadly.

[Dean E]

Yep, Its called "AnaProp"

You can clearly see the directional lines pointing to one radar station having issues.

That was the word I was looking for... see this is what the models have done to me!

This must be a nighmare situation for the MetO as they have the public to warn and protect...

[Cheshire Freeze]

As it stands...the areas to be affected as shown by each model....

Southern Northern England, North Wales, North Midlands.........HIRLAM, GFS precipitation mean, UKMO 12z,

North Midlands, Central/North Wales, Central Midlands.............. NOGAPS 18z, NAE 18z,

Midlands (central), Mid Wales..............GFS 18Z, WRF NMM 18z

sooooooo.....who knows?

[Bobby]

See my latest post....NMM does trend south BUT HIRLAM goes north and so does GFS ensemble mean

The HIRLAM hasn't taken it north, the rain accumulation to be similar over Wales and even greater across SW England.

[Lynxus]

As it stands...the areas to be affected as shown by each model....

Southern Northern England, North Wales, North Midlands.........HIRLAM, GFS precipitation mean, UKMO 12z,

North Midlands, Central/North Wales, Central Midlands.............. NOGAPS 18z, NAE 18z,

Midlands (central), Mid Wales..............GFS 18Z, WRF NMM 18z

sooooooo.....who knows?

In that case, Either Iceland or the Isle Of Wight will get hit/.

[Cheshire Freeze]

The HIRLAM hasn't taken it north, the rain accumulation to be similar over Wales and even greater across SW England.

I'm alluding to the totals across Lancashire and West Yorkshire which denote the passage of the band of rain in question....i.e tomorrow daytime. The drenching for the SW comes later.

[Dean E]

From current models, the second concern may now be South Western England and Southern Wales. A few models (GFS HIRLAM and NNM 18z) are showing this more every run.

Another one to watch

[Cheese Rice]

NMM 18z looks to give the Midlands a real downpour tomorrow. NMM up till now mostly sent the heaviest rain up North but looks to have fallen in line with the others. Central and North Midlands (Both East and West Regions) could see big totals tomorrow and severe flooding. 20th July 2007 almost all over again.

I'm not too sure where your getting that from tbh, maybe I'm looking at the wrong information but when viewing the 24hr PPN accum it's pretty clear that North West/West/South Yorkshire should see the biggest totals (NMM).

[Dean E]

I'm probably thinking what most people are on here right now, all I've got to say is Eastern Germany

http://www.sat24.com/de/gb?ir=true

[Costa Del Fal]

I'm not too sure where your getting that from tbh, maybe I'm looking at the wrong information but when viewing the 24hr PPN accum it's pretty clear that North West/West/South Yorkshire should see the biggest totals (NMM).

Youll have to excuse me as I dont have Netweather Extra right now and using Meteociel which covers us Midlanders but not for you in the North. But on there it certainly upgrades the rain for us but a little less for the North maybe. However whatever happens, we will all be soaked. I dont want it anyway!!!

[Neilsouth]

Rain drops keep falling on my head!

Sounds wet outside, no thunder

[Bobby]

I'd wager the 18z NMM is the most likely secenario with a severely effected area arcing from SE-Central-SW Britain, 2-3 inches in these areas, maybe more over Devon Cornwall with up to 100mm on the moors.

Edited July 5, 2012 by Barb-

[Norfolk Sheep]

As it stands...the areas to be affected as shown by each model....

Southern Northern England, North Wales, North Midlands.........HIRLAM, GFS precipitation mean, UKMO 12z,

North Midlands, Central/North Wales, Central Midlands.............. NOGAPS 18z, NAE 18z,

Midlands (central), Mid Wales..............GFS 18Z, WRF NMM 18z

sooooooo.....who knows?

And no mention of East Anglia. I do find that forecasts struggle with any degree of accuracy for this region!

[Dean E]

Current sat images are showing some signs of development over Central France, this is probably due to the warm moist plume arising from Iberia and can be clearly seen by some scatted showers now developing in the channel and over Northern France. I believe this is the area that needs watching as once it comes a shore and reacts with our Ex MCS we could be seeing the rapid development that the models are showing.

From the looking at the models, I'm gonna stick my neck out and say there will be to areas that will be of concern. First would be The North Midlands, say a line from Manchester to Hull for the northern extent and From Central Wales, through to Norwich. EA will probably see the worst between now and the early hours.

The Second region will be the SW tomorrow late evening and overnight, but this is yet to be defined.

Main message is to stay safe and look out for one another!

Edited July 6, 2012 by SnowMania

[TEITS]

And no mention of East Anglia. I do find that forecasts struggle with any degree of accuracy for this region!

Rather odd I agree because i've only just seen the NAE and its predicting incredible amounts of rainfall across much of E Anglia especially central/N parts of E Anglia.

Looking at the 24hr precip accumalation on the NAE and im hoping its wrong for my location.

According to the latest radar I would include all of E Anglia!!

Edited July 6, 2012 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[Cheshire Freeze]

And no mention of East Anglia. I do find that forecasts struggle with any degree of accuracy for this region!

Yes, I forgot to include East Anglia...apologies.