Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 5th July 2012>

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Yeah. Agreed with all of the above. Cambs may see the odd clap of thunder too, I'd say maybe N Herts/Beds aswell. Now all that stuff is making progress out of Belgium/Holland now, so we need to keep an eye on this. Still looks quite intense in some parts.

[Keraunic]

I think EA may stand a chance of seeing some Thunderstorm activity in the next couple of hours as the cells currently leaving the near continent are sustaining their sferics. It maybe a bit distant, but anyone with a view out to sea may have a better chance.

I think the likelihood of thunderstorms is going to be restricted to the daylight hours of tomorrow morning and daytime, as CAPE levels would be more favorable.

No view of the sea but nice view of Orwell (river, not George lol)from down the street.

[Cheshire Gap]

Just had a rumble of thunder here. totally out of the blue. Hadn't been checking the radar, just looked & it looks like a cell just popped up to our south east & moved just north of my location as we've had no rain.

Can confirm that! Had a couple of flashes and the rain is very intense! where is crewe cold??? probably at the window!!!

CG

[Convective]

Well, second thunderstorm witnessed this year. Went to Manchester Airport EGCC before to watch some 23L departures but they ended up closing the runway due to Cb clouds at the end aparently? Anyway, sky went really, really, really dark! Started chucking down but I thought it would pass over. It didn't though.. Went mental. Me and my dad were running back to the car and there was loads of CC lightning right above us. You could here the thunder, although it wasn't loud, it was directly above us. I was terrfied aha

[Cheshire Freeze]

Can confirm that! Had a couple of flashes and the rain is very intense! where is crewe cold??? probably at the window!!!

CG

Yes at the window! That's the closest to a proper storm we've come here so far....a nice couple of distant flashes and rumbles. A nice little downpour.

[AderynCoch]

It's showing up nicely on radar - some very intense colours. It just appeared right out of the blue over North Staffordshire.

We're not done just yet.

Edited July 5, 2012 by AderynCoch

[davehsug]

The BBC TV charts did show some showers breaking out ahead of the rain moving in overnight, but since none of the forecasters mentioned it, I didn't pay that much attention.

[Cheshire Freeze]

The BBC TV charts did show some showers breaking out ahead of the rain moving in overnight, but since none of the forecasters mentioned it, I didn't pay that much attention.

There is certainly a very volatile atmosphere out there at the minute

[Dean E]

No view of the sea but nice view of Orwell (river, not George lol)from down the street.

These MCS should become move elevated now, so you have a greater chance of seeing these!

[IanR]

It's showing up nicely on radar - some very intense colours. It just appeared right out of the blue over North Staffordshire.

We're not done just yet.

Like all the other thundery showers that have been heading our way it will start to fizzle away before it gets anywhere near here,

[AderynCoch]

Southport's about to get a soaking by the looks of things.

Good news for Cloudwatcher - the aforementioned Stoke system looks to be making a beeline for Ellesmere Port. I'll be too far north.

[weirpig]

bbc really ramping up the potential for some very serious weather over the coming 24 hours might well see some areas upgraded to red on the met office web page.

[IanR]

Southport's about to get a soaking by the looks of things.

Good news for Cloudwatcher - the aforementioned Stoke system looks to be making a beeline for Ellesmere Port. I'll be too far north.

Is it still producing lightning?

[ardsar]

Is that still "radar errors" in the english channel - they seem to be getting bigger and more defined.......

[Cheshire Freeze]

bbc really ramping up the potential for some very serious weather over the coming 24 hours might well see some areas upgraded to red on the met office web page.

interestingly, the GFS ensemble mean pushes the heaviest rain further north to centre around southern NW England, NW Midlands and NE Wales

[Norfolk Sheep]

Is it worth staying up do you think folks? I'm too keyed up to sleep anyway.

You might be kept awake by moderate drizzle

[Eskimo]

Is that still "radar errors" in the english channel - they seem to be getting bigger and more defined.......

Definitely pre-frontal instability bringing in showers.

[AderynCoch]

Is it still producing lightning?

I can't tell at the minute - the lightning detector's not showing anything from this system, despite forumer confirmation to the contrary.

Edited July 5, 2012 by AderynCoch

[Cheshire Freeze]

[Aaron]

interestingly, the GFS ensemble mean pushes the heaviest rain further north to centre around southern NW England, NW Midlands and NE Wales

GFS has two totally different bands of rain.. one moving through Yorkshire into Scotland and another moving through the Midlands into the SW..

[Bobby]

GFS 18z and NMM give SW Britain a good soaking too

Edited July 5, 2012 by Barb-

[weirpig]

interestingly, the GFS ensemble mean pushes the heaviest rain further north to centre around southern NW England, NW Midlands and NE Wales

models still havent got a handle on the exact postioning of the heavest rainfall somewhere is gonna get a pasting

[Keraunic]

You might be kept awake by moderate drizzle

That's what we're having now in Ipswich. Lol.

[Bobby]

.

Edited July 5, 2012 by Barb-

[Cheshire Freeze]

GFS has two totally different bands of rain.. one moving through Yorkshire into Scotland and another moving through the Midlands into the SW..

Yes, NAE having none of it ATM. GFS could well be off on one having seen that ensemble mean