The Midlands Regional Discussion

[A.J]

Ok, another squeeky clean thread for you all, so carry on here....

[Luke]

I'm a little bit confused at the moment. On Midlands Today they keep mentioning the heaviest rain will be be over central parts of the country yet the forecast and the warnings seem to be for NE England, where are they getting that from?

[conor123]

Finally after a horrid week thus far a lovely day!

Cloud broken up a lot in the past 45 minutes to give long spells of sunshine now!

[A.J]

A repost from the convective discussion thread as it's relevant to our region...

further to my earlier post, the model outputs are firming up on tomorrow, the NMM, NAE, HIRLAM & GFS are in general agreement on the 06z runs, and all I can say is Stone me!!...the west Midlands will be under water tomorrow with up to 70mm of rainfall forecasted!...Plenty of heavy rain & possible flooding also for the east & north Midlands, parts of Eastern England & SE England......As far as storm possibilities go, some MLCAPE early on tomorrow morning, with a modicum of 4 layer lift, & moderate mid-level lapse rates, but saturated moisture profiles, so maybe some elevated convection, but at this stage I wouldn't expect much TBH

[Costa Del Fal]

Yep, looks like the Midlands will cop it on latest modelling, especially Central and North Midlands. Flooding quite possible. Possible Torrential rain??? Thunder chance low though Id say.

However, sunny and warm today!

[picog]

Ground still saturated around here, and fields have laying water, so another big downpour is not good news at all. I'm not sure where all the water (if we do cop it) will go.

[Luke]

I wonder if we will see a change of warnings soon then.

[Costa Del Fal]

Paceyboy on the Convective thread raises how there is some 500 j/kg of ML Cape for the Midlands tonight. Could this boost Thundery potential?

[Nick L]

Good Lord...

http://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=nwm;date=20120705;time=06;ext=29;file=nmmukprate;sess=1dcecb3edd99432824ffcf906dbc77ab;

http://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=nwm;date=20120705;time=06;ext=30;file=nmmukprate;sess=1dcecb3edd99432824ffcf906dbc77ab;

[A.J]

Paceyboy on the Convective thread raises how there is some 500 j/kg of ML Cape for the Midlands tonight. Could this boost Thundery potential?

See my earlier post Luke, I've already posted on that...My feeling is that some elevated thunderstorms may develop to the south east of the region and drift NWwards dying out as they do so, leaving more traditional dynamic frontal rainfall

Edited July 5, 2012 by ajpoolshark

[Nick L]

I think those living by rivers should prepare themselves, could be a serious amount of rainfall in the next 36 hours.

[Luke]

Warnings have been slowly edging south during the day.

I've just looked at the weather warnings and it is only the one below a red level warning, I still think that there will be a red warning for this somewhere, I dont know where though, the only thing that is stopping it now is that it has to go up one more level on the likeliness scale. I think we could be seeing that tomorrow.

Edited July 5, 2012 by Luke

[Barbmac]

Oh darn, not more rain! At least today was a good one, Not sure how much more rain the region can stand if we get another deluge.

[conor123]

Looks like the worst of it will be for the North Midlands now according to the UKMO although the GFS still has the most intense rain around here between 3-6pm tommorow!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs303.gif

[Essan]

Tomorrow looks worryingly like 20th July 2007 (which was also a Friday) - though with the worst of the rain falling further north. It wouldn't actually be so bad down here as we haven't had all that much rain (June 2009 was wetter and the year to date is not much over average and a lot less than in 2007) but the heaviest rain looks like falling on areas that have been much wetter in recent weeks. Not good.

[shaky]

Well it luks lyk we not going to see any storms from the batch of rain leavin holland theyve all died out now!!oh well maybe next time!!

[Costa Del Fal]

GFS and NAE 18z have very nasty rainfall over us tomorrow especially tomorrow afternoon. Very reminiscent of FRIDAY 20TH July 2007.

[shaky]

Had anybody seen the latest nae!!my god it luks like the midlands is going to be absolutely swamped tomorrow!!its lukin quiet dangerous!!it pushes the precipitation further south compared to the 12 z nae!!

[Luke]

Weather forecast still looks on track for very heavy rain, could be some serious flooding. Anybody else think we might see a red warning somewhere? I think we will.

Edited July 5, 2012 by Luke

[Nick L]

Was going to do a spot of shopping in Telford tomorrow. I was planning to drive down the M54, but I think I'll hire a boat for the day instead.

[weirpig]

snow totally misses us every year now this !!!

[davehsug]

We've just had a rumble of thunder here, what's that all about?

[Nick L]

We've just had a rumble of thunder here, what's that all about?

Take a look at the radar!

[davehsug]

Yeah Nick, been commenting on the main convective thread. A rumble of thunder is always a welcome surprise here!

[Costa Del Fal]

NMM 18z looks to give the Midlands a real downpour tomorrow. NMM up till now mostly sent the heaviest rain up North but looks to have fallen in line with the others. Central and North Midlands (Both East and West Regions) could see big totals tomorrow and severe flooding. 20th July 2007 almost all over again.