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What Do You Think The 2012 Sea Ice Extent Minimum Will Be?

BornFromTheVoid

By BornFromTheVoid
in Climate Change

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Sea Ice Poll  

30 members have voted

  1. 1. What do you think the 2012 sea ice extent minimum will be? (In km2)

    • 5,800,000 - 6,000,000
      0
    • 5,600,000 - 5,800,000
      0
    • 5,400,000 - 5,600,000
      1
    • 5,200,000 - 5,400,000
      0
    • 5,000,000 - 5,200,000
      2
    • 4,800,000 - 5,000,000
      2
    • 4,600,000 - 4,800,000
      3
    • 4,400,000 - 4,600,000
      4
    • 4,200,000 - 4,400,000
      3
    • 4,000,000 - 4,200,000
      7
    • 3,800,000 - 4,000,000
      3
    • 3,600,000 - 3,800,000
      3
    • 3,400,000 - 3,600,000
      2
    • 3,200,000 - 3,400,000
      0
    • 3,000,000 - 3,200,000
      0

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BornFromTheVoid Maestro

BornFromTheVoid

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Author
Posted

You just have to click on vote CC!

Reading through the ARCUS submission info, it seems what they're trying to predict is the September mean extent rather than the actual minimum, yet several of the predictions submitted, including that from WUWT, are for the minimum and not the mean extent.

I'll send them on an email either this evening or tomorrow to see what the deal is with that, and which is best for any submission that might come from here.

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  • 3 weeks later...
Gray-Wolf Accomplished

Gray-Wolf

Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
Posted (edited)

I think this 'polar storm' has side swiped a lot of the voters (me included!) and will lead to extents being up to 1/2 million lower than without it?

If the central pack has also been badly fragmented then we may see a very low 'Arctic ocean' (as viewed in C.T. 'regions') posting a new record low Area as the edges get moved into other sea areas? Any ice headed for Barrentsz,Kara,Beaufort,Fram may even be lost to melt?

I thought than the thin ice/lack of ice in the Arctic Basin would have us challenge ,or beat previous record lows this year. It appears , now ,that only a miracle will stop us breaking all 3 min records? (Volume/Area/Extent)

A very bad year to be sure but what does this all mean for future years? 07' dropped us into 'unknown territory' via a season long 'perfect storm' and we have not 'bounced back from that over the intervening years. 2012 may drop us lower still but with so much less older, thicker ice to protect us from further falls are we now leaving the 07' plateau and heading down toward 'seasonal'? Remember we still have the next 'perfect storm' year ahead of us and 'average years' have near matched the 07' area/extent each year since the last (with volume dropping each year since).

Pssssst! I don't think BFTV is watching but if we wait until ice min is called we can all change our votes to that and look like a right bunch of swats!!!!

Edited by Gray-Wolf
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BornFromTheVoid Maestro

BornFromTheVoid

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Author
Posted

Pssssst! I don't think BFTV is watching but if we wait until ice min is called we can all change our votes to that and look like a right bunch of swats!!!!

Or maybe BFTV has saved the votes elsewhere!?

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BornFromTheVoid Maestro

BornFromTheVoid

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Author
Posted

As of the 11th, with an extent of 5,307,031km2, we've dropped below the highest vote of 5.4-5.6 million.

Next up are the 2 votes in the 5.0-5.2 million km2 category, which going by current trends, won't be passed until around the 14th or 15th, but more likely next weekend.

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BornFromTheVoid Maestro

BornFromTheVoid

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Author
Posted

With the extent now at 4,939,688km2, that's 3/26 minimum estimates passed

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BornFromTheVoid Maestro

BornFromTheVoid

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Author
Posted

I've cheated a bit. smile.png

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/

That's the September mean, this poll is for the daily minimumblum.gif

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BornFromTheVoid Maestro

BornFromTheVoid

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Author
Posted

With the extent now at 4,594,375km2 we have now passed 8/26 estimates based on the original poll results, but with the current poll as it is, we've passed 8/27 estimates.

Anything above 4 million looks odds against at this stage.

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  • 2 weeks later...
Gray-Wolf Accomplished

Gray-Wolf

Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
Posted

We are close to saying that GW was too optimistic about the state of the ice this year...... :0

I know! And how do you think that makes me feel??? I wasn't trying to be more optimistic to lessen the nasty 'doomsayer' jibes I get and yet still it looks like, by tomorrow, I will have been too optimistic!

Ah well, I'm sure the folk who label me such will provide some interesting reasons as to why this has happened?........and just prior to their promised cooldown/iceage/sustained recovery too?

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pottyprof Enthusiast

pottyprof

Posted
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL
Posted

I know! And how do you think that makes me feel??? I wasn't trying to be more optimistic to lessen the nasty 'doomsayer' jibes I get and yet still it looks like, by tomorrow, I will have been too optimistic!

I think you do a good job as a doomsayer. I can't remember a time when I ever thought anything other than "doomsayer!!". I'm disappointed that I might be nearer the mark though...

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted

At what time of the year is the minimum likely to be, i do not have any knowledge whatsoever about this but surely the 4,000,000 wont be broken, it surely wont be long before its too cold for any more melt??? October perhaps???

At what time of the year is the minimum likely to be, i do not have any knowledge whatsoever about this but surely the 4,000,000 wont be broken, it surely wont be long before its too cold for any more melt??? October perhaps???

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Gray-Wolf Accomplished

Gray-Wolf

Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
Posted

I think you do a good job as a doomsayer. I can't remember a time when I ever thought anything other than "doomsayer!!". I'm disappointed that I might be nearer the mark though...

Nearer what mark p.p.??? I can't see you in the votes at all?

But as I've always maintained what do you call a 'doomsayer' who has just been more accurate in thier predictions? Surely you have to feel more let down by the folk who gave you the calming 'there,there, it'll all be alright'?

Man up p.p., open your eyes and see the world as it is!

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BornFromTheVoid Maestro

BornFromTheVoid

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Author
Posted

Anyone that might be reading this, please vote in the final September sea ice poll here http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/74314-final-september-sea-ice-outlook-poll-for-2012/

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  • 2 weeks later...
BornFromTheVoid Maestro

BornFromTheVoid

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Author
Posted

A little way to go, but it looks like the minimum is likely to be within the 3.4-3.6 million bracket (min currently3.48 ), so Iceberg and mark4 look likely to be the only ones to have guessed correctly.

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BornFromTheVoid Maestro

BornFromTheVoid

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Author
Posted

Congrats to Iceberg and mark4, the only ones to guess the minimum correctly.

I might set up a poll for next years maximum towards the end of the month. Might be interesting to see if anyone thinks the maxima will start taking a bigger hit now.

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