Major Hurricane Daniel

[Konstantinos]

50% Chance during the next 48 hours.

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

500 AM PDT TUE JUL 3 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OFACAPULCO MEXICO IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. THUNDERSTORMACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER THISMORNING...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINALLYCONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLEOF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMINGA TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_epac.shtml

Edited July 3, 2012 by Konstantinos

[Konstantinos]

80% now.

[Konstantinos]

90%

[mezzacyclone]

Expected TS today, looking moderately good despite recent shear

and still plenty of >28°C sst field to go at.

[Somerset Squall]

Now upgraded to tropical depression 04E. Intensity is 30kts. Moderate shear is expected to persist but shouldn't be enough to stop gradual strengthening. A typical westerly or west-northwesterly track is expected, meaning 04E shouldn't affect land.

[Konstantinos]

It is going northwest - west:

How possible is to reach in West Pacific and East Asia? Have we seen it on records? If so how it was called? Hurricane or Typhoon?

[Somerset Squall]

Its rare. The best example is Hurricane/Typhoon John in 1994 which started in the East Pacific, moved into the Central Pacific then into the West Pacific. It was called a hurricane but then got renamed as a typhoon once it reached the West Pacific. No known storm has started in the East Pacific and made landfall on Asia however.

Edited July 4, 2012 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

04E has struggled over the last day against moderate shear but this is now easing and has allowed winds to reach 40kts, meaning 04E is now Tropical Storm Daniel. Daniel has a much more symmetrical look with deep convection now expanding directly over the LLC and banding features beginning to take shape. Although NHC have backed off forecasting Daniel to become a hurricane, I think it's still possible before the storm reaches cooler waters in 2-3 days time.

[Somerset Squall]

Daniel has strengthened to 50kts. The storm is experiencing good outflow, and much lower shear than previously. Daniel has some deep convection wrapping fully around the LLC with strong banding. I don't think it will be long before Daniel becomes a hurricane. NHC now forecast this, and also highlights the possibility of rapid strengthening in the next 24hrs.

[Somerset Squall]

Daniel has steadily strengthened to 60kts. The storm has developed a central dense overcast, but, until now, there have been no signs of an eye. One possibly might be trying to form now but it lacks definition or persistance at present. It does seem though that Daniel is close to becoming a hurricane. Daniel has another 24hrs over warm water before the westerly heading takes it over waters cooler than 26C.

[Somerset Squall]

Daniel has become a category 1 hurricane overnight, with sustained winds now at 70kts. The hurricane has developed an eye which has been fleeting in appearance on satellite imagery, but this is mainly because it is cloud obscured. Daniel is probably near peak intensity, but waters are warm enough beneath the hurricane for a little additional strengthening before the brisk westwards track take Daniel over cooler waters initiating weakening.

[Somerset Squall]

Daniel has strengthened a little more and winds are now 75kts.

[Somerset Squall]

Daniel's intensity has risen to 80kts, but it looks like the hurricane is still intensifying. The eye is clear to see in satellite imagery, something that has not happened with Daniel so far. I think the hurricane will make cat 2 before weakening tomorrow.

[Somerset Squall]

Daniel has surpassed all predictions and has become the East Pacific's second major hurricane, with sustained winds reaching 100kts, making Daniel a cat 3. This is a bit surprising as Daniel is moving over waters of 25C. NHC are forecasting weakening from today as the upper level environment also becomes more stable.

[mezzacyclone]

Daniel has surpassed all predictions,,,,etc

Indeed SS, and maybe on account of that then the intensity projection of TS Emilia is amazing!

[Somerset Squall]

The early forecasts quite often end up being conservative, and Emilia's case, I think the current peak intensity prediction will end up being too low. Daniel's outflow is negatively effecting Emilia at present however, and Daniel must weaken before Emilia can strengthen. With Daniel's intensity forecasts however, I think they were reasonable even as they ended up too low- as Daniel is strengthening over waters though to be cool to support a major hurricane. Just goes to show how much there is to learn about forecasting hurricane intensity.

Edited July 8, 2012 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

Daniel has weakened to 90kts. The CDO has shrunk considerably, but the eye remains well defined. With the dry and stable air mass and cooling along track sea temps, Daniel should continue to weaken. Once the dry air penetrates Daniels inner core then it's game over for the shrunken cyclone. The only reason the weakening is slow is due to the low shear which has meant Daniel has managed to keep the dry air away from the eye.

Edited July 8, 2012 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

Tenacious Daniel has continued to slowly weaken. Daniel is still a hurricane, but intensity has fallen to 65kts. The hurricane retains a small CDO feature but the eye is dissapearing. Shear is expected to rise in a day or so, which should kill off Daniel, as waters remain cool and the environment dry.

[Somerset Squall]

Daniel has moved into the Central Pacific, and has weakened further under high shear. Intensity has decreased to 35kts. A small amount of convection remains, sheared well south of the LLC. Despite Daniel moving into warmer water, high shear is expected to persist and dissipate Daniel soon.