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Model Output Discussion 30/06/2012


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spreads at the end of the run pick up a fairly sustantial depression far enough west of ireland to promote a decent scenario for us. worth keeping tabs on.

Spreads show divergence don't they, not depressions etc?

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Spreads show divergence don't they, not depressions etc?

depends on their shape barb - run through the sequence on meteociel and you'll see what i mean - circles for depressions and humps for ridges. clustering of a defined shape away from the mean represents a grouping of runs indicating a particular feature at that timescale.

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depends on their shape barb - run through the sequence on meteociel and you'll see what i mean - circles for depressions and humps for ridges. clustering of a defined shape away from the mean represents a grouping of runs indicating a particular feature at that timescale.

Hmm, yes that makes sense now.

No such feature on the 06z GEFS ensembles though:

gens-22-1-384_guc9.png

Edited by Barb-
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Matt Hugo has called for an unsettled first AND second half of July (I believe he has access to the ECM 30 day forecasts)

Read here: http://matthugo.word...to-be-expected/

So, what about the second half of July?…Any potential changes?…

Unfortunately, at the moment I don’t envisage any significant changes;

So in summary and it doesn’t bring me any joy to highlight this, but the first half of Summer 2012 looks to be a complete washout with the first half of July now expected to be unsettled and predominantly cool. The second half of July may well maintain these unsettled conditions, particularly for at time after mid-month, before perhaps changing at the end of the month. Clearly however, overall July may also now turn out to be quite poor as well, particularly if 2 or 3 of the 4 weeks of the month do end up being predominantly unsettled.

Edited by Barb-
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Posted
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: Eastleigh
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: Eastleigh

Matt Hugo has called for an unsettled first AND second half of July (I believe he has access to the ECM 30 day forecasts)

Read here: http://matthugo.word...to-be-expected/

you'll be sure to let us know when there's some good news, won't you?!

Matt Hugo also said the second half of february was going to be very cold due to northern blocking as that was what the ECM 30 dayer was indicating. It wasn't.

I have the sinking feeling he's more likely to be right this time around. the METO further outlook has now delayed any promise of better weather until the end of july as well.

Edited by Pharaoh Clutchstraw
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Posted
  • Location: Royston, Herts 76m asl
  • Location: Royston, Herts 76m asl

you'll be sure to let us know when there's some good news, won't you?!

Matt Hugo also said the second half of february was going to be very cold due to northern blocking as that was what the ECM 30 dayer was indicating. It wasn't.

I have the sinking feeling he's more likely to be right this time around. the METO further outlook has now delayed any promise of better weather until the end of july as well.

He has also done a complete turnaround from just a few days ago when he thought that the second half of July would be more settled. I wouldn't really put any store of this, although I see not a scintilla of evidence that he's wrong (although that would mean he was wrong previously).

However, things can change quickly. I recall that when the settled spell took hold in late May, there was no real sign that it would give way in the foreseeable, but give way it did relatively suddenly in time for the Jubilee.

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Posted
  • Location: ILCHESTER
  • Location: ILCHESTER

He has also done a complete turnaround from just a few days ago when he thought that the second half of July would be more settled. I wouldn't really put any store of this, although I see not a scintilla of evidence that he's wrong (although that would mean he was wrong previously).

However, things can change quickly. I recall that when the settled spell took hold in late May, there was no real sign that it would give way in the foreseeable, but give way it did relatively suddenly in time for the Jubilee.

I think we have to accept that anyone who gives out a forecast has every right to change it WB, especially when that forecast spans a 4 week period. Only a few days ago I felt reasonably confident that the 2nd half of July would see a pattern change to something more summery, but as things stand right now I think the chances of that are already low and getting lower by the day.

Edited by shedhead
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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Can't see any major changes in the overall 500mb pattern over the N Atlantic and Europe - persistent +ve height anomaly over Greenland and -ve anomaly over NW Europe. The block over Greenland driving the jet on a unseasonably stubborn southerly track across western Europe, with a limpet trough over the UK = lots more unsettled and cool/average weather with showers or longer spells of rain through July.

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Posted
  • Location: Bedford, Arguably The South East Midlands
  • Location: Bedford, Arguably The South East Midlands

no rain here again today, im no expert but i knew it wouldn't be as bad as people feared, i see many posts from people saying it will be unsettled with plenty of rain and showers the models never looked that wet to me, yet again people go over the top when they see synoptic s with a bit of low pressure over us

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Posted
  • Location: Royston, Herts 76m asl
  • Location: Royston, Herts 76m asl

I think, Snowy, you are making a fair point that LP doesn't always equal copious rain and no sun or warmth. TWS has been making a similar point.

Worth pointing out that the south-east (which may include you, if you're only 'arguably south midlands') has been consistently progged by the models as being the driest part of the country in this spell, indeed actually below average rainfall in the extreme south-east by the GFS.

I would expect I think yesterday to be the worst day of the week and today to be the second worst with a more slow moving sun/showers set up as the week moves on (as per TWS's expectation).

At risk of being OT, I spoke to my step-mother in Ampthill, near you, on Saturday night and she said it was raining whereas I had an almost clear sky, some 25 miles away!

But no-one can consider the models to be giving a nice summer set up, though, as many would hope?

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Posted
  • Location: Banned from Posting, Not happy
  • Location: Banned from Posting, Not happy

Looking at the bigger picture, the NAEFS anomaly maps have been very consistent showing a strong signal for continued low pressure dominance for the forseeable future (well into mid-July at least)

+120

naefs-0-0-120_gce9.png

+192

naefs-0-0-192_fmh8.png

+312

naefs-0-0-312_kbz0.png

etc

The ensembles look the same, until we see change in those I don't see things changing for a while

This entirely concurs with the latest MO 15-30 day updated forecast and the BBC. long range forecast ;-

Monday 2 July—Sunday 8 July

Rain most days for most of the UK

An area of low pressure which will roll in to the west on Monday will dictate the weather across the UK for the remainder of the week.

The first half of the week will feature outbreaks of rain and plentiful cloud. Misty and murky conditions will linger over hills and around the coasts, particularly in the south and west.

Midweek onwards showers will come to the forefront. Although these may allow us to see the sun occasionally, the showers are likely to bring more intense rainfall with Friday looking very soggy.

The week will be fairly windy and with temperatures only around average values, combined with the rain, the feel is likely to be somewhat cool.

Monday 9 July—Sunday 15 July

The lows keep rolling in

There is little sign of the weather settling down this week.

More rain is forecast for all areas, with the heaviest and most persistent focused on the north and west. It will also remain breezy.

Temperatures will remain unremarkable reaching around average values at best.

For southern and eastern areas there may be a lull in the wettest and windiest weather briefly, but confidence in this is low.

Monday 16 July—Sunday 29 July

Still unsettled

Westerly winds will continue to bring some unsettled conditions to more northern and western areas. The south and east will be drier and brighter but still with the risk of showers. Temperatures close to normal for the middle of July although cooler in the Northwest.

Putting meat on the bones.. even as we head beyond Mid July. the greens remain on the chart, the trough remains over the UK, as it has done since April pretty much with the UK,

surrounded by High Pressure to the west north east, south east everywhere but over us.

Rtavn3361.png

As has been the case for most of the summer the warmth remains tantalisingly close over Europe away from north western France, Europe continues to have a real summer

with plenty of hot sun, and an above average incidence of thundery weather into Eastern Europe. I did mention back in Mid May that the pattern established during early May can persist for almost the entire summer, and sadly it would appear to be the case. Both the GFS and ECM, have a greenland High and an Azores High positioned to far west to affect our weather. The Greenland High is firmly positioned and if anything appears to strengthen out to 240Hrs, and an increased presence of a lower Arctic High to the north of Scotland means that low pressure has no where else to go other than over the UK, where it departs the jet stream and becomes slow moving. With evaporation rates nearing there highest in early July, It is possible we could see record rainfall certainly for the first half of july and most likely beyond, with abnormally low sunshine levels. Conversley temps may not be too far from the average of 17 to 20oC however these temps being higher than what we saw for most of June, will lead to the potential for higher rainfall values. The other issue of course to remember is with the upper trough returning to its usual position over the UK, any thundery plumes are likely to pass to the south east. I think in all honesty July could be heading the way of June and may well end up being another summer month written off for the first 3 weeks at least.

In the shorter term.. disappointingly cool next week as temps drop to between 12 - 16oC across the country which is pretty dire.

Rtavn20417.png

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I think, Snowy, you are making a fair point that LP doesn't always equal copious rain and no sun or warmth. TWS has been making a similar point.

The Met Office have 3 days of flood warnings out for large parts of the country, so they certainly think there'll be copious amounts of rain.

Not all places of course, but that's never the case.

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

no rain here again today, im no expert but i knew it wouldn't be as bad as people feared, i see many posts from people saying it will be unsettled with plenty of rain and showers the models never looked that wet to me, yet again people go over the top when they see synoptic s with a bit of low pressure over us

A bit IYBY really.

In my location we have had 48 hours of rain with just short respites. Admittedly a lot of it has been light and patchy, with heavier bursts now and again, but nonetheless still wet & miserable, just as the models suggested for my location.

In these set ups, you always get variations across the country. Some places get hit with rain bands and frequent heavy showers, whilst other areas get away with just an isolated light shower.

Your location has been one of those locations that have escaped the worst, but 60 miles down the road might have been hit with shower after shower after shower.

The models continue to show a showery theme for the rest of the week. Western and Northern areas at risk of the more frequent, heavier showers, where's the East, more especially South East, will escape the worst of the showers, and may even see some glimpses of warm sunshine.

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Posted
  • Location: Formerly Walworth, SE17 ; Swansea SA1 since Dec 2008
  • Location: Formerly Walworth, SE17 ; Swansea SA1 since Dec 2008

[in the context of outlook/signals for the rest of July]

However, things can change quickly. I recall that when the settled spell took hold in late May, there was no real sign that it would give way in the foreseeable, but give way it did relatively suddenly in time for the Jubilee.

There are absolutely no visible signs of this possibility yet overall, in this continued jet driven output, but while chances may be pretty low of a quicker than expected turnaround, they are not yet nonexistent for later on in the month -- it's still only the 3rd July remember.

And yes I do freely admit that comment amounts to strawclutching/hopecasting!

Edited by William of Walworth
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Posted
  • Location: Bedford, Arguably The South East Midlands
  • Location: Bedford, Arguably The South East Midlands

the south east hasn't escaped, its raining at wimbledon but its only light patchy stuff, i never saw any posts on here saying we would have light patchy rain this week, its always "plenty more rain and showers, summer remains on hold" etc the radar had of band rain over my area today yet it was only spitting, i bet this is case for many other parts of the country too, of course a few places might of seen some heavier bursts but thats not the majority of the country

i now have to go and water my allotment

Edited by Snowy Easterly
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

just read several posts re matt hugo's post on TWO and the meto 30 dayer. matts post would have probably been written before he saw the updated ecm 32 day run. we can only assume that the 32 day run is in line with last friday's as the meto 30 day outlook is virtually word for word as per the last few days ('hints' of improvement are now 'signs' and the wording seems to indicate a slightly stronger confidence). both exteter and matt say that any improvement is likely later in the month as opposed to just after mid month. so although the models we see show no evidence for things to settle down, the ecm 32 dayer, which is what exeter use for their extended forecast has now produced two forecasts which are encouraging in the latter stages. unfortunately, although thats a straw, it isnt a very big one !!

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

Yes i have to agree with the general views of the thread that there is no indication of a let up in this protracted unsettled and often cool spell.

It`s noteworthy how the mean height anomolies for June are so alike to the 00z 10day forecast,here,

June actual post-2026-0-35398000-1341337851_thumb.gi Day10 f.cast post-2026-0-01144100-1341337868_thumb.gi

The only minor adjustment to this stubborn pattern is a flatter looking flow in week 2 as that Greenland height anomaly fades and our upper trough warms out somewhat.

These are from the 12z GFS Mean run and are very similar to the 00z output.

post-2026-0-44100000-1341338486_thumb.pn post-2026-0-50173300-1341338568_thumb.pn

However i am not sure whether we will get any real settled conditions even then with the jet still on it`s southerly track and a suppressed Azores High.There should be some sort of warm up though as the flow becomes more south westerly with some warmer uppers easing north.

It may be a signal for further changes for the later part of July though and that`s my very fragile straw clutched.

Edited by phil n.warks.
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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

just read several posts re matt hugo's post on TWO and the meto 30 dayer. matts post would have probably been written before he saw the updated ecm 32 day run. we can only assume that the 32 day run is in line with last friday's as the meto 30 day outlook is virtually word for word as per the last few days ('hints' of improvement are now 'signs' and the wording seems to indicate a slightly stronger confidence). both exteter and matt say that any improvement is likely later in the month as opposed to just after mid month. so although the models we see show no evidence for things to settle down, the ecm 32 dayer, which is what exeter use for their extended forecast has now produced two forecasts which are encouraging in the latter stages. unfortunately, although thats a straw, it isnt a very big one !!

Interesting ba.

If one uses the MJO forecast phases as a guide then the GFS will have us back in a trough (Phase 1) whilst the ECM ensembles hint at something better (phase 3).

Let's hope that the ECM has a better grip of things and that is guiding the 32 dayer.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/MJO.html

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Interesting ba.

If one uses the MJO forecast phases as a guide then the GFS will have us back in a trough (Phase 1) whilst the ECM ensembles hint at something better (phase 3).

Let's hope that the ECM has a better grip of things and that is guiding the 32 dayer.

http://www.cpc.ncep....clivar_wh.shtml

http://raleighwx.ame...wx.com/MJO.html

not for the next fortnight though ed

http://www.meteo24.fr/fr/home/meteo-france-et-europe/passion-meteo/ensemble-de-previsions.html?eps=london

look at those maxes - incredible. the mean precip is depressign aswell.

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

not for the next fortnight though ed

http://www.meteo24.f...html?eps=london

look at those maxes - incredible. the mean precip is depressign aswell.

Ha! yes.

Are we back to the 80's these last few years.

It certainly feels like it.

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

Ha! yes.

Are we back to the 80's these last few years.

It certainly feels like it.

Have a look at this Ed-Height Anomolies for Summers 2007-2011

post-2026-0-61464400-1341340565_thumb.pn

and it seems this Summer continues with the same pattern so far.(June chart in my earlier post.)

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Have a look at this Ed-Height Anomolies for Summers 2007-2011

post-2026-0-61464400-1341340565_thumb.pn

and it seems this Summer continues with the same pattern so far.(June chart in my earlier post.)

Wow. Big blue blob over the UK, Phil. I wonder how the 80's compare...

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