Model Output Discussion 30/06/2012

[Frank Trough]

Not much change from ECM this week, FI hints at pressure building to the south but we need to wait till the ensemble is out later on to see if it has any support

http://www.netweathe...ction=ecm;sess=

well, regardless of its own ensembles the operational output has some support from it's earlier runs, the GEM 00z and it does seem to fit fairly well with Meto view of things (more settled in the southwest initially, becoming settled more widely). It might be a bit quick with the evolution (or completely wrong) but you never know.....

Lets not forget the GFS spent a good part of last week predicitng that this week would be more settled before caving in...

that's today's straw firmly clutched!

[bluearmy]

By unusual synoptics could that include the possibility of a hurricane or tropical storm quickly having an effect on the pattern and moving the jetstream north? I recalled that occured to give us a warm spell at the end of July 2008 which allowed the unsettled pattern to be broke at least for a time?

Nick, what do you think about the second half of July - Gavin in his monthly outlook is going for a warmer and drier end to the month - do you see that happening I really want to see better weather around my birthday (18th July).

Luke

luke - the upper ridge around greenland is about to strengthen rather than weaken and this time around its going to be centred a bit further east between s greenland and iceland. that means the upper trough has to be stuck closer to the uk whereas last week it was just a bit to our west which enabled a plume to give us a few decent days. despite some promising operational fi's, there seems no way out of this before mid month. its a long time since the ops trumped the ens guidance in fi. depressing but i am confident that the pattern will change/shift. given the amplified nature of it, if its a shift we could end up with a very steamy period indeed.

[Summer Sun]

ECM's ensemble remains unsetled tonight

http://www.wetterzen...n/fsecmeur.html - comes under the name of 500hPa,SLP - Ensemblemittel

Edited July 2, 2012 by Summer Sun

[Tom D]

Hello all, I wonder if this is the best place to post but I'm interested in seeing how the cool summer we're having here in the UK compares to elsewhere in the Northern Hemisphere. Are there any charts that show temperature anomoly? Thanks in advance.

[Luke McDonnell]

luke - the upper ridge around greenland is about to strengthen rather than weaken and this time around its going to be centred a bit further east between s greenland and iceland. that means the upper trough has to be stuck closer to the uk whereas last week it was just a bit to our west which enabled a plume to give us a few decent days. despite some promising operational fi's, there seems no way out of this before mid month. its a long time since the ops trumped the ens guidance in fi. depressing but i am confident that the pattern will change/shift. given the amplified nature of it, if its a shift we could end up with a very steamy period indeed.

Thanks for that then Nick it would be nice to see at least some signs of improvement - by "steamy" does that imply warm and humid with a chance of thunderstorms etc. lets wait and see what transpires.

Luke

[damianslaw]

Reliable timeframe - more of the same, strong heights to our NW and the trough becoming unstuck across the country, but unlike last week, the trough will be positioned more centrally gradually moving eastwards meaning we won't see any warm plume event.

So a wet often cloudy outlook, but not the torrential downpours of last week thankfully. Temperatures very near average with some mild nights, but becoming cooler generally by the end of the week as we see cooler air from the NW push down.

Into next week- models suggest strong heights to our NW may begin to orientate into a more N-S alignment with perhaps the northern arm of the jetstream becoming stronger enabling these heights to sink southwards towards the azores region which would be a much more conducive set up to something much warmer and settled longer term.

Perhaps this summer might see the better conditions reserved for the second half as opposed to the first, unlike the last 5 which gradually deteriorated into poor Augusts..

[Bristawl Si]

On hols right now in The Algarve, Portugal - current temp at 10.00pm 27 celsius - clear blue skies all day. Beautiful! Left Bristol airport yday at 7.00am and it was 9 celsius!

Looking at current model output indicates an "as you were/are scenario" for the uk for the forseeable.

[Cloud 10]

Hello all, I wonder if this is the best place to post but I'm interested in seeing how the cool summer we're having here in the UK compares to elsewhere in the Northern Hemisphere. Are there any charts that show temperature anomoly? Thanks in advance.

Air temperature anomaly chart for June 1st to the 24th northern hemisphere.

And the same,this time for europe

Link here for composites> Daily Climate Composites

I was going to post the air pressure anomaly chart but i don't want to depress everyone!

[nick sussex]

luke - the upper ridge around greenland is about to strengthen rather than weaken and this time around its going to be centred a bit further east between s greenland and iceland. that means the upper trough has to be stuck closer to the uk whereas last week it was just a bit to our west which enabled a plume to give us a few decent days. despite some promising operational fi's, there seems no way out of this before mid month. its a long time since the ops trumped the ens guidance in fi. depressing but i am confident that the pattern will change/shift. given the amplified nature of it, if its a shift we could end up with a very steamy period indeed.

So you're going for the shift being troughing edging west and a western based negative NAO to put the UK on the warm side of that with a flow sourced from the south, at least that doesn't require a major change of pattern but some westwards adjustment.

I'm sure most people could cope with the odd deluge if its interspersed with some sunshine and warm temperatures, realistically if those heights remain near Greenland thats the last hope.

The Azores high looks firmly entrenched in its current location, i'm sure it will be back though once the summer finishes!

[William of Walworth]

I'm all for realism, and I do appreciate that pretty much ALL current output is realistically pretty dire (for summer perferrers) into the foreseeable.

But can there be a little bit more tolerence of frustration and opinion about all this? Alonsside the discussion/description, I mean?

Yes we do need sensible summaries and balanced comments about what the models are showing, I particularly appreciate the summaries from TWS and others when I have limited time myself to catch up with it all, as now.

Posting as someone who spends an awful lot of every summer heading for outdoor events, that's why I check the shortish term models, and tend to urge against reading too much into FI, and get particularly agitated sometimes against longer term writer-offers of entire months and entire summers, I'm always sceptical about what lies beyond days 7 to 10 anyway.

Right now all I (selfishly) care about is whether our outdoor 'event' that we'll be heading for in Hereford this coming w/e, Friday and Saturday, is going to be a total washout or not. Not optimistic at all from recent runs. Surely moderate/limited short term upgrades do sometimes happen occasionally, and not always nothing but intensification and downgrades, as all here seem to be suggesting? The direction of synoptic travel now and again really does turn out to be somewhat less down, between the early part of a week and the weekend??? Please?

I'm miserable and depressed about all this, it's been damp all day today in SW Wales and is likely to be again tomorrow, I therefore request some more tolerence and less barbed criticism of peoples' moods, even in this thread, I'm sure I'm not alone in that.

[rob48]

Just because someone "writes-off" an entire month or half a season doesn't make it fact.

I get particularly annoyed by having to read stuff about "what we want/need" what we "deserve" and what's "overdue".

It's weather, that's all.

[phil nw.]

Posts not related to actual model outputs are not for this thread.Some have been deleted for this reason.

There are plenty of other threads for general comments.

[Gael_Force]

Hello all, I wonder if this is the best place to post but I'm interested in seeing how the cool summer we're having here in the UK compares to elsewhere in the Northern Hemisphere. Are there any charts that show temperature anomoly? Thanks in advance.

Sorry, not model related but to answer his query.

http://ds.data.jma.g...d20120627_e.png

http://ds.data.jma.g...d20120620_e.png

http://ds.data.jma.g...d20120613_e.png

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/climate/synop/td20120606_e.png

Last four weeks global temperature anomaly. Data from JMA.

http://ds.data.jma.g...mate/synop.html

Edited July 2, 2012 by Gael_Force

[Summer Sun]

GFS is as you were this morning with unsettled weather dominating

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

UKMO is the same

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=meto;sess=

[William of Walworth]

So you're going for the shift being troughing edging west and a western based negative NAO to put the UK on the warm side of that with a flow sourced from the south, at least that doesn't require a major change of pattern but some westwards adjustment.

I'm sure most people could cope with the odd deluge if its interspersed with some sunshine and warm temperatures, realistically if those heights remain near Greenland thats the last hope.

The Azores high looks firmly entrenched in its current location, i'm sure it will be back though once the summer finishes!

Why not somewhat sooner? My general suggestion here is that predictions that AH influence won't show its hand at all before September could yet prove premature. Longer term model based speculation on this one would be welcomed. Alongside the immediate-term model discussion obviously. Sceptical as I always am about FI or even beyond 10 days, longer term synoptic suggestions and trends are still interesting, and maybe a little less depressing for sumemr preferrers.

Right now, as ever, the models are looking pretty wet, LP dominated and unsettled ... damn this never shifting Jet!

[Frosty.]

This Ecm 00z chart highlights the problem, even by day 10 we continue to have a southerly tracking jet and relatively high pressure to the northwest. The Gfs 00z has low pressure more or less over the uk for many days to come..at least the water authorities will be happy. No sign of the azores/atlantic high making a move towards the uk in the next few weeks, the hot weather is well away over eastern europe, the uk is stuck with low pressure and the mid atlantic down to the azores is filled with high pressure.

[shedhead]

Another X rated (or 18+ for younger members ) set of runs right across the model suite this morning, with still absolutely no sign whatsoever of a pattern change, unless you count static LP dominated weather changing to mobile LP dominated weather in FI. To my mind the current runs produce more questions than answers, not least just how long can this last and could we possibly see out the entire Summer under this type of pattern?

Edited July 3, 2012 by shedhead

[minus 9]

I gaurantee the jet will move north come september. Sods law. Why do we get more rain in summer than winter.?. Sorry if off topic.

[Thundery wintry showers]

The main emphasis over England and Wales for Wednesday through to Saturday still looks like being on slow moving thundery downpours with some sunshine in between, and it may feel relatively warm in any sunshine with just light winds, although it is hard to pin down sunshine amounts in this setup- broadly speaking SE England, particularly near the coast, will see the fewest showers and also the most sunshine. However, longer outbreaks of rain can't be ruled out in these slack cyclonic setups, and today will certainly have some persistent rain coming into southern areas. In the meantime thunder may turn out quite widespread on most days, particularly tomorrow over NE England.

For Scotland it will often be a different story- Friday in particular looks like being a total washout on the northern flank of the depression, with slow moving fronts, persistent rain and temperatures stuck at around 13-15C.

It's hard to deny that the second week of July certainly reeks of "more of the same" with the southerly tracking jet likely to power up replacing the showery regime over England and Wales with a dull wet one, reminiscent of the one that we had for most of June. There are hints that the northern blocking will weaken as we head towards mid-July allowing the main focus of high pressure to transfer towards the Azores, as some others have been noting recently, but whether this gives us any advance on changeable Summer 1998-style westerlies is unclear at this sort of range.

[shedhead]

The main emphasis over England and Wales for Wednesday through to Saturday still looks like being on slow moving thundery downpours with some sunshine in between, and it may feel relatively warm in any sunshine with just light winds, although it is hard to pin down sunshine amounts in this setup- broadly speaking SE England, particularly near the coast, will see the fewest showers and also the most sunshine. However, longer outbreaks of rain can't be ruled out in these slack cyclonic setups, and today will certainly have some persistent rain coming into southern areas. In the meantime thunder may turn out quite widespread on most days, particularly tomorrow over NE England.

For Scotland it will often be a different story- Friday in particular looks like being a total washout on the northern flank of the depression, with slow moving fronts, persistent rain and temperatures stuck at around 13-15C.

It's hard to deny that the second week of July certainly reeks of "more of the same" with the southerly tracking jet likely to power up replacing the showery regime over England and Wales with a dull wet one, reminiscent of the one that we had for most of June. There are hints that the northern blocking will weaken as we head towards mid-July allowing the main focus of high pressure to transfer towards the Azores, as some others have been noting recently, but whether this gives us any advance on changeable Summer 1998-style westerlies is unclear at this sort of range.

Are there? From what I can see the blocking to our north remains at least as robust and maybe even becomes a little more robust around mid month, with the cool, unsettled weather pushing even farther south and east in Europe. I suppose the one straw to clutch is if this trend continues, we may see the crap go so far south that blocking might actually set up over the UK come late July/Aug.

Edited July 3, 2012 by shedhead

[Buzzit]

One thing that springs to mind looking at the latest GFS ensembles is that the 850 temps for London show little scatter between the ensemble members over the next week... Situation normal, Low pressure is certainly not going anywhere in a hurry.

Edited July 3, 2012 by Buzzit

[Bobby]

Looking at the bigger picture, the NAEFS anomaly maps have been very consistent showing a strong signal for continued low pressure dominance for the forseeable future (well into mid-July at least)

+120

+192

+312

etc

The ensembles look the same, until we see change in those I don't see things changing for a while

[snowmadchrisuk]

Well there are no Warnings out for tomorrow but the GFS 6z makes it look like a very Wet and Thundery afternoon , Looking at the Cape Values for 18z . PPN and 850's over at least +10 in the East suggest there could well be some Storms tomorrow.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Are there? From what I can see the blocking to our north remains at least as robust and maybe even becomes a little more robust around mid month, with the cool, unsettled weather pushing even farther south and east in Europe. I suppose the one straw to clutch is if this trend continues, we may see the crap go so far south that blocking might actually set up over the UK come late July/Aug.

The GFS 06Z certainly keeps extensive northern blocking throughout the run, but the ECMWF operational run tones it down during the last 3-4 frames of the run, and this has been quite a consistent feature of recent ECMWF runs- although I note that the ensemble mean still has a stubborn 1020mb high around Greenland. Nothing clear-cut, but maybe tentative hints there from the ECM.

I see that the NAEFS maps also show the toning down of the northern blocking, but that it doesn't necessarily have much of an impact on the UK- if anything that last chart looks more symptomatic of a strong southerly tracking jet than the first two.

[bluearmy]

Looking at the bigger picture, the NAEFS anomaly maps have been very consistent showing a strong signal for continued low pressure dominance for the forseeable future (well into mid-July at least)

The ensembles look the same, until we see change in those I don't see things changing for a while

spreads at the end of the run pick up a fairly sustantial depression far enough west of ireland to promote a decent scenario for us. worth keeping tabs on.