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Model Output Discussion 30/06/2012


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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

I agree that flooding may be a problem in view of recent rainfall, particularly in north-east England which got particularly heavily hit by the storms on the 28th June and looks like it could well also see the heaviest and most frequent shower activity during this coming week- Wednesday in particular looks like a lesser version of what those areas had last Thursday.

Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex

I see what you're saying TWS, regarding the possibility of reasonable weather in the SE, due to inhibited convection, because of onshore winds. However the winds look very light, which may well mean that only areas quite close to the coastal strip would get the full benefit.

Time will tell though.smile.png

Edited by The Föhns
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Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall

Pretty dire charts, with the UK looking like a LP magnet again. Only Northern France, parts of the Low Countries and parts of Scandinavia may suffer too whilst everyone else enjoys summer which we havent had yet.

Thankfully, in compensation there are almost daily convective chances especially for England and Ireland it seems going by the GFS. This will give some interest at least.

Otherwise, thank god im off to Spain in 12 days time! :lol:

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Posted
  • Location: ILCHESTER
  • Location: ILCHESTER

The main thrust of the posts on this thread reflect what is going to be another very poor week weatherwise, as Tony said there are a plethora of fronts set to move east tomorrow, so many in fact the duty forecaster at Exeter must have gone through half a box of pencils already. Moreover TWS we all know there will be regional variations, there always are across these islands, (Orkney is lovely atm) but if the idea is not to mislead or misinform casual visitors to this thread then the main emphasis of any post has to focus on the very unsettled pattern imo.

Edited by shedhead
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All the major models looking unsettled all the way pretty much, the NAEFS anomaly maps confirm this, they look even worse than the last ones with no respite from the low pressure anomalies over us, and the signal strengthening towards mid-July.

Cut off low anchored to our SW

+96

naefs-0-0-96_kdo5.png

+240

naefs-0-0-240_aoj0.png

+384

naefs-0-0-384_vqv9.png

The outlook for the next two weeks looks generally cool and wet with a lot of rain in places.

July looks to be going the same way of June, looks similar to Jun-Jul 2007

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking further ahead it appears that pressure will be building to the northwest allowing a freshening NE'ly airflow to develop and that could persist for much of next week with showers as the low, initially over the uk, heads northeast into southern scandinavia while pressure remains high in the iceland area..this looks a very locked in pattern and any changes will probably be beyond 14 days time which eats another few weeks off this disappointing summer, we have gone from one extreme, a very warm and dry spring to a washout summer but the second half or final third will surely improve!

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

The main thrust of the posts on this thread reflect what is going to be another very poor week weatherwise, as Tony said there are a plethora of fronts set to move east tomorrow, so many in fact the duty forecaster at Exeter must have gone through half a box of pencils already. Moreover TWS we all know there will be regional variations, there always are across these islands, (Orkney is lovely atm) but if the idea is not to mislead or misinform casual visitors to this thread then the main emphasis of any post has to focus on the very unsettled pattern imo.

My response to this really ties in with my problem with the way the MOD is going. There's a lot of emphasis on what we want the models to be showing (as opposed to what they are showing), and a premise that we are only interested in reliably dry, settled weather with perhaps the occasional Spanish plume, the same as with snow in winter. This is causing a lot of wrist-slitting at the moment, a mood of total despair.

I have nothing against people preferring that particular type of weather, or being exasperated at the recent dull wet weather, but my concern is that those with an interest in other types of weather, or other points of interest in the model outputs, are discouraged from contributing to this thread, and it tends to wear me down after a while. I think all I'm really asking for is a bit more focus on what the models are showing, as opposed to what we want them to be showing- it worked really well during January-April of this year.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

My response to this really ties in with my problem with the way the MOD is going. There's a lot of emphasis on what we want the models to be showing (as opposed to what they are showing), and a premise that we are only interested in reliably dry, settled weather with perhaps the occasional Spanish plume, the same as with snow in winter. This is causing a lot of wrist-slitting at the moment, a mood of total despair.

I have nothing against people preferring that particular type of weather, or being exasperated at the recent dull wet weather, but my concern is that those with an interest in other types of weather, or other points of interest in the model outputs, are discouraged from contributing to this thread, and it tends to wear me down after a while. I think all I'm really asking for is a bit more focus on what the models are showing, as opposed to what we want them to be showing- it worked really well during January-April of this year.

I make no secret of the fact that this current weather is heaven for me....the more of summer we can get through without being stifled by hot, sweaty, sleepless nights the better. I really enjoyed summer 2007....it's not what many people want to hear but it's my preference. Saying this, I'd like to eventually hear some thunder again......lol

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If your happy when it rains for months on end then be happy.. I prefer not having to wear a coat for years on end.. So far we have had about 12 days this year that you can consider wearing a t-shirt outside, and that includes the little bit of warmth in late March.

People are depressed with the facts we are not getting summer again.. Summer being where you have to water your plants because its been so dry and warm.. growing up i use to always water the garden for my Dad in August.. Now you have weed the garden 6 times a year.. Because the weeds are 3ft high.

I personally like the Summer when its nice takes away from other 9 months of the year thats you expect to be dull and overcast..

Edited by ohno
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Posted
  • Location: ILCHESTER
  • Location: ILCHESTER

My response to this really ties in with my problem with the way the MOD is going. There's a lot of emphasis on what we want the models to be showing (as opposed to what they are showing), and a premise that we are only interested in reliably dry, settled weather with perhaps the occasional Spanish plume, the same as with snow in winter. This is causing a lot of wrist-slitting at the moment, a mood of total despair.

I have nothing against people preferring that particular type of weather, or being exasperated at the recent dull wet weather, but my concern is that those with an interest in other types of weather, or other points of interest in the model outputs, are discouraged from contributing to this thread, and it tends to wear me down after a while. I think all I'm really asking for is a bit more focus on what the models are showing, as opposed to what we want them to be showing- it worked really well during January-April of this year.

To be fair I think this thread and the one before it were/are full of posts about what the models are showing, but as most members are human (note mostgood.gif) I think it's impossible to expect no emotion at all and that emotion generally gets expressed in preference. I suspect few if any of us want to come on here day in day out and moan about the lack of warm, sunny weather, but that is what the models continue to show from a big picture perspective, tho as you've said there will be local variations on this general theme. Unfortunately right now and across this Summer to date what most members want to see and what has actually transpired are poles apart, but imo most posts continue to reflect what is being shown, which when compared to what we see in here during Winter is quite refreshing.

Edited by shedhead
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

And i'm in no way certain that the weather, over the coming weeks, will be as cool or as cloudy as some peeps are suggesting? Not everyone gets the showers!

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Posted
  • Location: Aylesbury ,Bucks
  • Location: Aylesbury ,Bucks

the S.A.D. sufferers are going to have a bad time of it come November if we dont get a least a little summer

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Posted
  • Location: Ponteland
  • Location: Ponteland

Looking further ahead it appears that pressure will be building to the northwest allowing a freshening NE'ly airflow to develop and that could persist for much of next week with showers as the low, initially over the uk, heads northeast into southern scandinavia while pressure remains high in the iceland area..this looks a very locked in pattern and any changes will probably be beyond 14 days time which eats another few weeks off this disappointing summer, we have gone from one extreme, a very warm and dry spring to a washout summer but the second half or final third will surely improve!

A lot of folks will say amen to that Frosty but I would not hold my breath waiting for the improvement.
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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

It is hard for any posts in this thread not be somewhat negative in view of the continual cool and damp weather.

I believe that generally this current thread and much of the last thread consisted of very good and objective postings that reflected the outputs.

It would be easy for the Model outputs to turn the thread into a moaning shop and i don`t think that`s the case and much of the content has been pretty objective and has indeed reflected the charts on display.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Its low pressure all the way from GFS tonight once more, lots of rain / showers for all at times, it will fell warm in any sunny spells but cooler in the rain

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

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Posted
  • Location: ILCHESTER
  • Location: ILCHESTER

It is hard for any posts in this thread not be somewhat negative in view of the continual cool and damp weather.

I believe that generally this current thread and much of the last thread consisted of very good and objective postings that reflected the outputs.

It would be easy for the Model outputs to turn the thread into a moaning shop and i don`t think that`s the case and much of the content has been pretty objective and has indeed reflected the charts on display.

Indeed Phil, I don't think it's being negative to call the 12 GFS another absolute horror show, nor is it misrepresenting the facts for that matter. After another dull, cool and very showery week/weekend LP does lift out northeastwards, but only to allow even cooler air to sink south for a time next week before the Atlantic comes bowling back in, perhaps bringing the start of the Summer westerlies. The T+384hr does show a glimmer of hope, but to be fair it really is a glimmer at best and will almost certainly change big time come the 18 run.

Edited by shedhead
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Posted
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: Eastleigh
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: Eastleigh

Its low pressure all the way from GFS tonight once more, lots of rain / showers for all at times, it will fell warm in any sunny spells but cooler in the rain

http://www.netweathe...tion=nwdc;sess=

it's a herocially awful run again. The GFS at least is convinced the first half or two thirds of july is going to be unsettled and generally unpleasant. there is no light at the end of the GFS tunnel. after the persistent trough that will plague this week and weekend starts to drift away another low comes smashing across the atlantic bringing another stormy weekend for the 14th/15th and then sets up camp in our vicinity.

Sound familiar?!

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Posted
  • Location: ILCHESTER
  • Location: ILCHESTER

it's a herocially awful run again. The GFS at least is convinced the first half or two thirds of july is going to be unsettled and generally unpleasant. there is no light at the end of the GFS tunnel. after the persistent trough that will plague this week and weekend starts to drift away another low comes smashing across the atlantic bringing another stormy weekend for the 14th/15th and then sets up camp in our vicinity.

Sound familiar?!

Heroically aweful.... I like that clapping.gif

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

the few optimistic fi op runs we have seen over the past few weeks are now extinguished as the ens forecast of strengthening greeny ridge now becomes the consistent operational offering as get below T200. as nick f posted this morning, until we lose those high anomolys over greenland, it will take some unusual sypnotics to deliver a settled spell to nw europe. the naefs forecast of the shape of the ridge is closer to current output than ecm was. as i have mentioned many times over the past few months, naefs is looking an excellent week 2 forecasting tool, even moreso since february when the upgraded gefs have been fed into it. it would be nice to get a pattern change so we can see which model is the first to consistently pick it up !! (i can think of a few more reasons!!)

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Posted
  • Location: Liverpool
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and humid with some thunderstorms plus some snow too.
  • Location: Liverpool

the few optimistic fi op runs we have seen over the past few weeks are now extinguished as the ens forecast of strengthening greeny ridge now becomes the consistent operational offering as get below T200. as nick f posted this morning, until we lose those high anomolys over greenland, it will take some unusual sypnotics to deliver a settled spell to nw europe. the naefs forecast of the shape of the ridge is closer to current output than ecm was. as i have mentioned many times over the past few months, naefs is looking an excellent week 2 forecasting tool, even moreso since february when the upgraded gefs have been fed into it. it would be nice to get a pattern change so we can see which model is the first to consistently pick it up !! (i can think of a few more reasons!!)

By unusual synoptics could that include the possibility of a hurricane or tropical storm quickly having an effect on the pattern and moving the jetstream north? I recalled that occured to give us a warm spell at the end of July 2008 which allowed the unsettled pattern to be broke at least for a time?

Nick, what do you think about the second half of July - Gavin in his monthly outlook is going for a warmer and drier end to the month - do you see that happening I really want to see better weather around my birthday (18th July).

Luke

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I expect to see more flooding this week from slow moving downpours and stalling fronts, the best weather looks to be the SE.

Wettest to the W and N

12070912_0212.gif

2-3 inches to come for many with locally a lot more no doubt.

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)

Although it is in Fantasy Island, the 00Z GEM does kind of show the big High Pressure system to the South-West trying to build towards the UK - this of which is most noticeable around 216 hours:

post-10703-0-40917600-1341250842_thumb.g

This does, however, get flattened out right at the end of the run, but does offer a bit of hope for something more settled to arise (although it looks like the South-West would probably be the most settled near the end of that GEM run, while the North/North-East would probably see more cloudier conditions with the possibility of light spells of rain spilling over the Northern part of that High). Like what a few others have mentioned, I have my doubts about how far North any High Pressure systems to the South can ridge thanks to the trail of Low Pressure systems above likely to restrict any North and North-Eastward movement of those High Pressure cells. Plus, the 00Z GEM seems to be the only model where ridging from the South-West makes the most influence, so there is a good chance this could get downgraded on tomorrow's 00Z run. But maybe... just maybe... the GEM could just provide the ticket out of the unsettled weather eventually. Otherwise, with some of the models, such as the GFS 12Z showing a strong Greenland High Pressure system, I think we may indeed just continue to see Low Pressure systems being forced to track and/or stall over us with the Jet Stream being too tired to travel further North.

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
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Posted
  • Location: Melbourne, Victoria
  • Location: Melbourne, Victoria

It looks to me from flicking through this afternoon's GFS that this "locked in" pattern with LP over the British Isles is strengthening in the next 2 weeks, rather than weakening, and if anything we are looking quite at just as wet and unsettled fortnight, as the last 2 weeks with large rainfall totals, little sun, and a tendency to cool weather - with 20 degrees at the max - nearer 15 for many spots. Pretty much akin to 2007. After the last 3 months , one wonders when this is going to end. It seems certainly not in the next fortnight.

Edited by Upgrade
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Not much change from ECM this week, FI hints at pressure building to the south but we need to wait till the ensemble is out later on to see if it has any support

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ecm;sess=

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