Model Output Discussion 30/06/2012

[Bobby]

NAEFS anomaly map shows continued strong signal for unsettled weather to dominate into mid July

Heights still strong over Greenland, until we get rid of them we are in trouble I think

[95 Degrees]

I went for June to be the most summer like month of the summer, which would've been wrong but perhaps not, if the models are indeed correct about a July looking very similar to last year, with unusually cool and unsettled weather over the U.K and even parts of France, few signs point to a decent July and August has a bad reputation nowadays, none of the models show much settled weather and even FI doesn't offer much settled,warm weather.

Edited July 1, 2012 by BrightInBrighton

[shedhead]

NAEFS anomaly map shows continued strong signal for unsettled weather to dominate into mid July

Heights still strong over Greenland, until we get rid of them we are in trouble I think

Very much so, the Winter was characterised by a limpet PV over Greeland and the Summer looks like being characterised by limpet blocking up there, which is precisely the double whammy we've pretty much come to expect nowadays. Not suggesting FI will be correct off the 06 GFS, but IF it is there's no doubt we would also have to write July off too, because looking at the 384hrs there is still no quick way whatsoever out of mess we're in.

[Summer Sun]

GFS 06z remains unsettled this morning - GFS link wont work sorry

UKMO is also unsettled http://www.jp2webdes....uk/ds/ukmo.htm

As is ECM http://www.jp2webdes...o.uk/ds/ecm.htm

Most areas should manage a drier day on Wednesday before more rain pushes in for the end of the week, winds will be strong at times as well

Edited July 1, 2012 by Summer Sun

[nick sussex]

I think dismal would sum up the current modelling, any decent FI output implodes nearer the time with the models prematurely trying to lessen heights over Greenland, the ECM in particular has been all over the place.

Now the UK looks set to be plagued by the limpet low for much of the coming week, as this fills at least there maybe some sunshine and with lighter winds it won't feel too bad from Wednesday onwards however there is likely to be some heavy and thundery showers which could produce some large rainfall totals.

Absolutely no sign of anything in terms of a decent spell of summer weather, you can get decent conditions if the negative NAO becomes more western based with trough to the west of the UK but at the moment troughing remains stuck over the UK.

I certainly would ignore any suggestions of the Azores high ridging ne towards the UK unless this lasts into the 144hrs timeframe on the models.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Next week looks 'unsettled' but apart from one dull wet interlude on Monday, the weather looks likely to be predominantly bright and showery, rather than the exceptionally dull wet weather that characterised most of June, with a weak trough sitting in situ over western Britain. Some of the frontal rain on Monday may be thundery, with fairly high convective available potential energy indicated for central and northern parts of England. From Tuesday onwards shower activity will tend to be concentrated in western areas with the south-east seeing the fewest showers. In this type of situation, chances are that some places will see one shower after another, and perhaps two or three days with thunder, while others will remain predominantly dry with sunny intervals from Tuesday to Friday. Temperatures don't look anything special, generally close to the long-term average at 19-22C or so, but again higher than we've seen in most recent weeks.

Looking at the longer-term outputs, I am getting a sense that generally cloudier conditions are likely to return away from the north-west, with low pressure setting up mainly over southern areas and the chance of a southerly tracking jetstream powering up again giving more in the way of persistent rain. With building pressure to the NW, western and northern Scotland and NW England may get more in the way of dry sunny weather, whereas north-eastern districts will probably end up predominantly dry but cloudy and rather chilly thanks to the north-easterlies off the North Sea.

[Bobby]

GFS 06z remains unsettled this morning

http://www.null/ds/gfs.htm

UKMO is also unsettled

http://www.null/ds/ukmo.htm

As is ECM

http://www.null/ds/ecm.htm

Most areas should manage a drier day on Wednesday before more rain pushes in for the end of the week, winds will be strong at times as well

Those links don't work for me.

[Cloud 10]

GFS 06z remains unsettled this morning

http://www.null/ds/gfs.htm

UKMO is also unsettled

http://www.null/ds/ukmo.htm

As is ECM

http://www.null/ds/ecm.htm

Most areas should manage a drier day on Wednesday before more rain pushes in for the end of the week, winds will be strong at times as well

Using the gfs 06z,i've got Wednesday pencilled in for some more storm activity,with a return

of those high dewpoints as warm air is imported from the continent.

Looks to be a similar set-up to last thursday.

[karyo]

NAEFS anomaly map shows continued strong signal for unsettled weather to dominate into mid July

Heights still strong over Greenland, until we get rid of them we are in trouble I think

It looks like a very interesting outlook if you like convective weather!

My only concern is all this northern blocking contributing to fast ice melt in the Arctic!

Karyo

[Summer Sun]

Those links don't work for me.

ECM and UKMO should be fine now GFS wont work for some reason

[summer blizzard]

Models now agree on an unsettled outlook outlook until at least the 10th before they diverge, pretty good agreement given that the 10th is day 9. Variations on the positioning may keep minima high at times but maxima look uninspiring.

We should not be too surprised however as the MEI/QBO profiles are very similar to those of winter 2010 when we had a persistent Greenland High.

[OldMetMan]

July is here and summer seems as elusive as ever - at least for the moment.

With the strong upper high over most of the US and another over much of central and eastern Europe, there seems little likelihood of any imminent change in the pattern with an upper trough sandwiched in between near the UK.

The prospect of slow moving LP over the UK from mid-week on seems pretty consistent across the models now, but in the mid- to long-term, only the ECM has been quite consistent in building the Azores HP across us.

Looking at the rather tortuous path of the jet it is still obviously way south of where is should be across the Atlantic, but, as I mentioned the other day, there is a definite weakening trend being shown by the GFS, which would fit with the presence of a slowly filling LP over us. It would also, in my view, tend to support the ECM's insistence on a pressure build by the 2nd week of July, with a gradual change over the US towards upper troughing near the east coast, plus the jet taking a more northerly path towards Greenland, like it should in July, favouring rising heights across the mid- to east Atlantic.

The exact evolution and timing is, I think going to be hard for the models to agree on day to day, but it seems clear that a lot of the energy is ebbing away from the Atlantic upper flow, a good time for a pressure rise. As ever, a great deal depends on where any such HP centres itself, but I have a feeling we may see it centred to our NW or N, not necessarily the best place but, if nothing else, we might at least get a week or two of relatively dry weather.

Before that happens, of course, plenty more scope for deluges as the LP slowly fills over us, where and when is anyone's guess but I fear there may be yet more local flash floods before we see the back of it all.

[Summer Sun]

GFS 12z remains unsettled for a good while yet it would feel warm in any sunny spells but no summer weather is in sign yet

The link for GFS is not working properly sorry

Tuesday remains wet just about all day for the south west

Wednesday see's further showers moving in the south west should become drier as the day progresses

Thursday see's yet more rain spreading in though parts of the south coast and south east could remain dry if not cloudy

Friday see's yet more rain and showers moving in again East Anglia and the south east may remain dry

Into the weekend and its yet more rain and showers i'm afraid if you want some summer sunshine I suggest you head into the med as summer remains firmly on hold for the UK

[Sunny Android]

Certainly the models are showing plenty of rainfall next week and isn't some originating from TS Debby ?

'Cloud 10' - I'm not convinced on the GFS for wednesday storm potential. There is certainly CAPE and lift, showing both in Wed / Thursday but not to any great extent ........ Yet.

I'll watch this space ..as they say !

[Summer Sun]

UKMO remains unsettled for the week, showers are likely anywhere with thunder possible, possible cause for concern according to country file for northern england and scotland later in the week with rainfall totals getting high but no where is immune from showers even if its dry its likely to be cloudy with temperatures close to average

http://www.null/ds/ukmo.htm

Tonights country file forecast will be in the weather in the general media thread shortly

[William of Walworth]

July is here and summer seems as elusive as ever - at least for the moment.

With the strong upper high over most of the US and another over much of central and eastern Europe, there seems little likelihood of any imminent change in the pattern with an upper trough sandwiched in between near the UK.

The prospect of slow moving LP over the UK from mid-week on seems pretty consistent across the models now, but in the mid- to long-term, only the ECM has been quite consistent in building the Azores HP across us.

Looking at the rather tortuous path of the jet it is still obviously way south of where is should be across the Atlantic, but, as I mentioned the other day, there is a definite weakening trend being shown by the GFS, which would fit with the presence of a slowly filling LP over us. It would also, in my view, tend to support the ECM's insistence on a pressure build by the 2nd week of July, with a gradual change over the US towards upper troughing near the east coast, plus the jet taking a more northerly path towards Greenland, like it should in July, favouring rising heights across the mid- to east Atlantic.

The exact evolution and timing is, I think going to be hard for the models to agree on day to day, but it seems clear that a lot of the energy is ebbing away from the Atlantic upper flow, a good time for a pressure rise. As ever, a great deal depends on where any such HP centres itself, but I have a feeling we may see it centred to our NW or N, not necessarily the best place but, if nothing else, we might at least get a week or two of relatively dry weather.

Before that happens, of course, plenty more scope for deluges as the LP slowly fills over us, where and when is anyone's guess but I fear there may be yet more local flash floods before we see the back of it all.

Thanks for that clear and informative summary Old Met Man. I can even see a few cautious grounds for tentative optimisim for later (after this coming week I mean by that). Those tempted to write off the whole of July should be more cautious than current moddelling right now points to, I'd suggest. Relatively small shifts in tracks/positioning of systems and lows could change things a fair bit.

Possibly!!

This could turn out to be the worst time to forecast/predict anything beyond days 7 to 10.

Edited July 1, 2012 by William of Walworth

[William of Walworth]

UKMO remains unsettled for the week, showers are likely anywhere with thunder possible, possible cause for concern according to country file for northern england and scotland later in the week with rainfall totals getting high but no where is immune from showers even if its dry its likely to be cloudy with temperatures close to average

http://www.null/ds/ukmo.htm

Tonights country file forecast will be in the weather in the general media thread shortly

We're going to check this online on i-player.

Selfishly, I'm liking the suggestion that the worst/heaviest of rain looks like possibly being concentrated in the Nortth this week. As I said, all about the track and positioning.

For what little ithis is worth, the Observer's weekly forecast today suggests fair/cloudy//showers (only) conditions, and around 17C to 19C, for the end of the week in most cities listed in the South ....

Need to catch up properly with the models though.

Edited July 1, 2012 by William of Walworth

[Bobby]

ECM 12z looking unsettled with heavy showers and longer spells of rain for many with a low dominating:

GFS 12z is unsettled from start to finish.

NAE shows a fair bit of rain over the next few days, especially to the SW with up to 2 inches by Tuesday across S. Wales Valleys (typical):

That's half of July's total already.

[Summer Sun]

ECM remains unsettled once more tonight in the reliable time frame

Country File week ahead forecast here

Edited July 1, 2012 by Summer Sun

[Weather-history]

Some of the charts especially ECM ominously reminds me of July 1919 and that had a CET of 13.9

[summer blizzard]

Certainly the models are showing plenty of rainfall next week and isn't some originating from TS Debby ?

'Cloud 10' - I'm not convinced on the GFS for wednesday storm potential. There is certainly CAPE and lift, showing both in Wed / Thursday but not to any great extent ........ Yet.

I'll watch this space ..as they say !

TS Debby became fully barlonic a few days ago, absolutely all tropical moisture has gone.

[Sunny Android]

Thanks for you feedback Summer Blizzard

To be honest I didn't think there would be much left to TS Debby now. I'll certainly leave the fluid dynamics / 'baroclinicity' to the computer modelling though !

[Cloud 10]

Certainly the models are showing plenty of rainfall next week and isn't some originating from TS Debby ?

'Cloud 10' - I'm not convinced on the GFS for wednesday storm potential. There is certainly CAPE and lift, showing both in Wed / Thursday but not to any great extent ........ Yet.

I'll watch this space ..as they say !

The details will change a bit over the next couple of days,but plenty of thundery potential

this coming week with slack low pressure becoming established over the UK.

Not much hope from the NAEFS 12z of things settling down,indeed quite the reverse.

Meteociel - Cartes Ensemble NAEFS ( North American Ensemble Forecasting System)

Seems rather familiar!

stuck in a rut

[davehsug]

The GFS shows what must be just about the most robust & longest lasting 1012mb trough ever! If it was to be in a slightly different position it could give us a very warm & thundery spell. This is the UK in summer though.

[Bobby]

Looks like a wet few days coming up in the S and W in particular, and this before the showery/stalled fronts regime from the limpet trough sets in

Heavy rain setting in here now from the first front.