A new thread for all things convective around the UK going into the summer of 2018.
Old thread here:
Convective weather relating to Europe should go into here:
A chance of a few thunderstorms this week with central and southern parts of England and Wales looking most at risk. Although Monday is now moving into the reliable timeframe it is still too early to discuss specifics for the week as a whole. It is likely though that this week will provide some thundery showers or storms for a few of us. An easterly flow will probably favour more western areas for home grown storms, but elevated storms from the continent could also affect southern and south-eastern areas at times.
Not sure if we have a thread open yet for storms as we haven't really had one yet..
Here is my post this Morning on the first to effect Southern England
A shiny new thread as we head into the second half of July and the mid point of the summer.
What a summer it has been. We started the summer with a lot of thunderstorms as June came in with a bang. Unfortunately as June came to a close and we moved into July the temperatures dropped and so did the storm risk. The most thundery early June I can remember has been balanced by the poorest early July I can remember. This looks like it is all set to change though as temperatures rise and summer returns.
Temperatures are already rising across the south and this building warmth and humidity will spread northwards through the early part of the coming week, with the heat likely peaking on Tuesday. The first 30c is very likely this week. The increasing heat and humidity also looks likely, on current modelling, to culminate in the possibility of some dramatic thunderstorms.
The thoughts of Weather09 in the previous thread provide a good view of what we could expect from current modelling, seen on page 140 of the thread. The very high CAPE values being modeled for Tuesday are unlikely to be realised with strong ridging. It is currently late Tuesday night into Wednesday the period of interest (subject to change of course). Pin pointing an area to be at risk at this range is pointless.
I am thinking this thread is going to get busy with lots of excitement, forecasts and thoughts regarding what is likely to happen, even what you are hoping will happen. I am hoping it will be busy with lots of reports of thunderstorms and convective activity by the middle of this week and beyond. I think most of us would not want to see it fill up with "why do I always miss out", "nothing here", "wishing for no storms" or other moaning posts that should be in the correct moaning thread like the one below.
Good luck to all those that want a storm.
A chart showing MLCAPE for early Wednesday, just to get the excitement flowing
I've just introduced this new topic about Greece. As you may know Greece doesn't mean just sun, fair weather and beaches. Furthermore, the very complicated orography can affect the weather from a place to another even if the distance is just a few Kilometers. So, I will use this topic to prove what I said . Of course, if anyone has any comments, queries or even matterial from Greece, he/she can upload.
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