Why Are Summers Getting Stormier?

[power77]

Why is summers getting more stormier?

Is it because of the weaker sun. We have higher level velocity of cosmic rays bombarding the water vapour in the troposphere.

Link: www.forbes.com/sites/larrybell/2011/09/20/sorry-but-with-global-warming-its-the-sun-stupid/

Edited June 30, 2012 by power77

[Backtrack]

I don't think they're getting stormier at all?

The event that happened 2 days ago was a once in a life time event, and many areas missed out.

By no means does this mean that summers are becoming more stormy, it's just when we get continental heat mixed with a cold front from the West, things do tend to go boom.

I would say that the increased storm activity in recent times has been because of the scorching run of summers on the near-continent, rather than our own. But I don't think this trend will continue.

[laserguy]

Why is summers getting more stormier?

You're havin' a larf,right? The historic events of recent days broke the mould of recent years. Tragically,my location missed out on all the fun. I watched events unfold on the radar that morning and got the most sickening feeling when it became crystal clear that we weren't invited to the party. A case of so near yet so far. Got a shower and could hear distant thunder. A trauma I'm still trying to recover from,like having lost a lottery ticket with six winning numbers.

[Alex95]

I don't know where you live, but 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 have been stormy in the NE, and 2007 and 2008 to an extent. Generally, I think we've been lucky in that we've had some thundery setups for the NE, with a warm and showery SW flow. Thursday's event was very unusual for the UK as a whole.

[laserguy]

I don't know where you live, but 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 have been stormy in the NE, and 2007 and 2008 to an extent.

Um, South Yorks! And yes you have indeed been lucky in the NE - we've had naff all for the duration!

[The PIT]

Well we've had less storms but then you get runs of stormy weather and runs without. I think things are made worse by building on flood plains plus out of date drainage systems that aren't designed to cope with all drains feeding them. Near where I live a storm drain blows it's lid off at the first sign of any stormy weather. The rainfall amounts haven't gone up just more buildings more concrete with nowhere for the rain to drain away naturally.

Still it's cheaper to blame the climate than it is too fix the Victorian sewers and to stop people from building on flood plains.

[Alex95]

Well I live on high ground, and some places around here were still flooded, including many who have never been flooded before. In severe flash floods like those seen in Tyneside on Thursday you could live on the top of a mountain but you'd still be at risk of flooding due to the sheer volume of water coming down in a short space of time.

The flood plains are possibly why wide spread flooding is becoming more common following prolonged rainfall.

Edited June 30, 2012 by Alza

[Gael_Force]

You all assume the opening poster refers to thunder storms - I think he/she actually means the weekly, stormy low pressure cells that have caused so much of this months precipitation. This pattern was a common occurrence during past periods of low solar activity, where the jet stream moved south and brought an Icelandic type of summer weather to NW Europe.

http://www.bitsofscience.org/solar-minima-cooling-europe-5842/

[laserguy]

You all assume the opening poster refers to thunder storms .....

Yes that was my presumption! Sorry...

[Mixer 85]

I think the consistently negative NAO we've been seeing for the last few months is leading to this Atlantic driven pattern. Like clock work for the past four weeks we've been seeing strong lows pushing through at the end of every week, bringing high rainfall totals followed by a showery regime. Here in Ireland we haven't had a break, my lawns been nothing more than a swampy marshland.

There are signs of improvement so fingers crossed.

[Guest]

I can't recall the last time we had a thunderstorm at Watford, they seem to mostly pass us by.

[Gray-Wolf]

I think the fact we were moved into the AGW vaults kinda hints at why we are seeing such a sinuous, lazy, stretched jet stream with storms punching through the tropopause more often (as Boscastle did in style) and the amount of water vapour the warming atmosphere can hold increasing (up 4% over the past 30yrs) so that high rainfall events are becoming ever more common (as with our "100yr flood event" in the Calder Valley last Friday....the 6th in 20yrs... and the highest yet by a stonking 50cm.... even with our new flood alleviation schemes up and running) .

Look around the world and see how frequent Drought /Flood/Heat/Cold/Forrest fires are the past 30yrs? Don't tell me...we have better records these days...nope, these things are really there and well beyond the realms of statistical flukumstance.

Take a look at the ice volume in the Arctic and where extent/area are headed.

Think about the amount of energy now being kept on board the planet compared to those crazy old CO2 warming days last century?

Now we have open water across the Arctic absorbing up to 80% of the solar that used to be bounced straight back into space (well 90% of it).....and then there is that crazy old CO2 excess (and GHG's increasing across the board), along with that increase in water vapour in the atmosphere, to keep hold of the bits of it is re-emitted as heat from the oceans at summers end (whilst the rest messes with the ocean heat Flux levels across the arctic Basin?).

[laserguy]

I think the fact we were moved into the AGW vaults....

Oh Gawd I knew it wouldn't be long before this kinda rubbish emerged. See y'all later...

[Methuselah]

I think the fact we were moved into the AGW vaults kinda hints at why we are seeing such a sinuous, lazy, stretched jet stream with storms punching through the tropopause more often (as Boscastle did in style) and the amount of water vapour the warming atmosphere can hold increasing (up 4% over the past 30yrs) so that high rainfall events are becoming ever more common (as with our "100yr flood event" in the Calder Valley last Friday....the 6th in 20yrs... and the highest yet by a stonking 50cm.... even with our new flood alleviation schemes up and running) .

Look around the world and see how frequent Drought /Flood/Heat/Cold/Forrest fires are the past 30yrs? Don't tell me...we have better records these days...nope, these things are really there and well beyond the realms of statistical flukumstance.

Take a look at the ice volume in the Arctic and where extent/area are headed.

Think about the amount of energy now being kept on board the planet compared to those crazy old CO2 warming days last century?

Now we have open water across the Arctic absorbing up to 80% of the solar that used to be bounced straight back into space (well 90% of it).....and then there is that crazy old CO2 excess (and GHG's increasing across the board), along with that increase in water vapour in the atmosphere, to keep hold of the bits of it is re-emitted as heat from the oceans at summers end (whilst the rest messes with the ocean heat Flux levels across the arctic Basin?).

Gawd, Ian. It was only last week that we were all trying to find the reason why it's been getting less stormy...Then - Hey Presto! - AGW is making it more stormy! Could there be a wee bit of 'having one's cake and eating it', here?

[Gray-Wolf]

Gawd, Ian. It was only last week that we were all trying to find the reason why it's been getting less stormy...Then - Hey Presto! - AGW is making it more stormy! Could there be a wee bit of 'having one's cake and eating it', here?

Pete? I thought you were fully aware in the ongoing climate studies regarding the occurence of extreme weather events across the planet?

I'm sure we are all aware of the jets ability to lead to 'stuck weather patterns' when it is running in this slow convoluted way be that cold /heat/rain or drought (with associated fire risks)? and I supposed that you were also fully aware of the research being done into the impacts of a reduced temp/pressure gradients from pole to temperate regions (esp. over late summer/early winter) that allows for such a sinuous pattern to emerge?

We have been seeing this type of 'jet pattern' evolve over a wide range of other climate drivers (and solar phases) and being held to account for russian heatwaves/fires/floods/,european droughts/flood,ongoing mediterranean drought, U.S. Deluge/Drought/heat/cold, Chinese flood/drought/cold/heatwave, Indian/Pakistan monsoon failures/displacement etc, etc. (no one event can be ascribed to AGW now can it? but an upsurge in exceptional weather events across the globe?)

But yes? cake and eat it if you will......the only thing I've not seen is our current AGW blamed for is 'Global cooling' even though we're at the hands of climate drivers that in the past did just that! odd that?

[BornFromTheVoid]

Gawd, Ian. It was only last week that we were all trying to find the reason why it's been getting less stormy...Then - Hey Presto! - AGW is making it more stormy! Could there be a wee bit of 'having one's cake and eating it', here?

Where is that thread?

[Gael_Force]

@Gray-Wolf: Did you look at the years 2012 was competing with for title of wettest AMJ on record? They are....

1782 336.7

1830 324.4

1797 313.1

IMO, the common factor is a period of low solar output that includes the Dalton Minimum.

It's very enlightening to have a look at the records for that time - you will see many of the wild swings in monthly figures that we have been experiencing recently.

[Gray-Wolf]

I thought we were approaching solar max?

... or are you saying they were also max cycles within the grand minimum? Problem being , according to our astrophysisists, we are only just coming out of a grand solar max and any move towards a grand solar min will be from 40 to 200yrs away?

I'm not trying to deny any past influence of the suns longer cycles, or the earth position/attitude/inclination on weather patterns just it seems odd that your trying to ascribe current conditions to things that appear to be a long way off according to your best info? We then have the issue of 'lag' in solar forcings?

Anyhows , since the last 'uptick' in global warming rates, in the 80's, we have apparently had a glut of weather extremes on record. so much so that a number of universities, across the planet, have both ongoing studies and published , peer reviewed papers, on the phenomina.

Edited June 30, 2012 by Gray-Wolf

[Methuselah]

Pete? I thought you were fully aware in the ongoing climate studies regarding the occurence of extreme weather events across the planet?

I'm sure we are all aware of the jets ability to lead to 'stuck weather patterns' when it is running in this slow convoluted way be that cold /heat/rain or drought (with associated fire risks)? and I supposed that you were also fully aware of the research being done into the impacts of a reduced temp/pressure gradients from pole to temperate regions (esp. over late summer/early winter) that allows for such a sinuous pattern to emerge?

We have been seeing this type of 'jet pattern' evolve over a wide range of other climate drivers (and solar phases) and being held to account for russian heatwaves/fires/floods/,european droughts/flood,ongoing mediterranean drought, U.S. Deluge/Drought/heat/cold, Chinese flood/drought/cold/heatwave, Indian/Pakistan monsoon failures/displacement etc, etc. (no one event can be ascribed to AGW now can it? but an upsurge in exceptional weather events across the globe?)

But yes? cake and eat it if you will......the only thing I've not seen is our current AGW blamed for is 'Global cooling' even though we're at the hands of climate drivers that in the past did just that! odd that?

Well Ian, global cooling is absolutely non-existent...I was trying to be humorous btw...

Where is that thread?

Good question...

[jethro]

I thought we were approaching solar max?

... or are you saying they were also max cycles within the grand minimum? Problem being , according to our astrophysisists, we are only just coming out of a grand solar max and any move towards a grand solar min will be from 40 to 200yrs away?

I'm not trying to deny any past influence of the suns longer cycles, or the earth position/attitude/inclination on weather patterns just it seems odd that your trying to ascribe current conditions to things that appear to be a long way off according to your best info? We then have the issue of 'lag' in solar forcings?

Anyhows , since the last 'uptick' in global warming rates, in the 80's, we have apparently had a glut of weather extremes on record. so much so that a number of universities, across the planet, have both ongoing studies and published , peer reviewed papers, on the phenomina.

We may be approaching Solar max but the decline to this current cycle was a prolonged quiet one, the incline to this max has been a slow and stuttering one, with the expected climax being much, much lower than the last few cycles; perhaps as slow and low as the Dalton minima. The move towards a Grand Minimum is not expected in 40-200 years time, the general mood and thoughts have shifted to this cycle and the next being likely to be deep minima. The Livingston & Penn theory is gaining ground and showing consistent results on a monthly basis, supported by official observation by themselves and other Solar Physicists - Dr. L Svalgaard, among other highly regarded experts fully support their work and expect their findings to re-write what we thought we knew about the Sun. Their work is currently being prepared for peer review.

As for the Solar influence upon weather and climate - Lockwood published a paper last year (supported by other later studies) which show how and why a quiet Sun influences weather. The changes in TSI together with changes in UV levels alter the pressure patterns. The Lockwood paper focussed upon the influence in winter with a prediction for colder, snowier winters in our part of the globe; although the paper made no mention of summer weather, it seems highly improbable that the impact would be restricted to the winter season. The long term impact upon climate was covered either last year or earlier this year by a Danish study (can't remember the names but a quick Google should find it) - it showed quite conclusively that a quiet Sun does have an impact upon climate but the lag or connection to cycle is longer than previously thought. Any influence from the Sun upon climate lags from one cycle to the next; any current impact will be from the previous cycle (23) the influence from this current much quieter cycle won't be felt for at least another 6 years, possibly 10.

[BornFromTheVoid]

We may be approaching Solar max but the decline to this current cycle was a prolonged quiet one, the incline to this max has been a slow and stuttering one, with the expected climax being much, much lower than the last few cycles; perhaps as slow and low as the Dalton minima. The move towards a Grand Minimum is not expected in 40-200 years time, the general mood and thoughts have shifted to this cycle and the next being likely to be deep minima. The Livingston & Penn theory is gaining ground and showing consistent results on a monthly basis, supported by official observation by themselves and other Solar Physicists - Dr. L Svalgaard, among other highly regarded experts fully support their work and expect their findings to re-write what we thought we knew about the Sun. Their work is currently being prepared for peer review.

As for the Solar influence upon weather and climate - Lockwood published a paper last year (supported by other later studies) which show how and why a quiet Sun influences weather. The changes in TSI together with changes in UV levels alter the pressure patterns. The Lockwood paper focussed upon the influence in winter with a prediction for colder, snowier winters in our part of the globe; although the paper made no mention of summer weather, it seems highly improbable that the impact would be restricted to the winter season. The long term impact upon climate was covered either last year or earlier this year by a Danish study (can't remember the names but a quick Google should find it) - it showed quite conclusively that a quiet Sun does have an impact upon climate but the lag or connection to cycle is longer than previously thought. Any influence from the Sun upon climate lags from one cycle to the next; any current impact will be from the previous cycle (23) the influence from this current much quieter cycle won't be felt for at least another 6 years, possibly 10.

Links to those papers would be appreciated Jethro, having a little trouble finding the exact ones your referring too.

[jethro]

Here's some info on the Lockwood one:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/8615789.stm

Can't remember the specifics on the other but it's been posted here before, will dig around tomorrow - perhaps in the Solar thread???

[Weather-history]

I think the question should be why have some recent summer months have been very wet?

[Gray-Wolf]

I think the question should be why have some recent summer months have been very wet?

Maybe " Are we seeing a change to the average Polar Jet stream position?"

To me I find i have to accept the evidence of an alteration to the pattern to one with much greater N./S. displacement will only minor alterations to the southern 'trough' but much greater alterations to the northern 'peak'

It may prove pants to us , here, but just look at the run of Arctic Temps over the last few years (summer and winter) and you can see why this is not helping with out issues there.

I'd also accept the study linking (statistaically) low solar activity with more Atlantic blocking but can find no other 'one' mechanism to explain the 'shift' we are seeing across the rest of the northern hemisphere?

It has been linked to the reduction in temp /pressure gradient from pole to equator and when you see some of the 'never been recorded before' Arctic temps a.t.m. you can understand this a little better.

When we, in the UK, are 5 degrees colder than places within the Arctic circle then it must really put a kink in the 'heat engine' that drives our weather' surely?

[cyclonic happiness]

Do you mean 'stormy' as in thunder storms or 'stormy' as in the way I took it to mean 'deep low pressure systems'?

If it's the latter, then we have defiantly been more stormy the past 6 years in summertime.

We have an old lady who works for us during hanging basket season and she said about 3 years ago "I wonder why it keeps getting so windy in June nowadays, no sooner have the baskets been hung up, then they're bashed to pieces by the gales?'.

And if you look at June over the past 5-6 years, you'll see that we seem to always get a run of gales throughout the month, which cause no end of damage and flooding.

The jet stream seems to be the main culprit as it's sitting right over the top of the UK instead of it's normal home at this time of the year at Iceland.

So now we get low after low after low crashing into the UK's shores bringing torrential rain, thunder, gales (summer gales!!! I'm mean, what's that all about??)and lack of sunshine.

At work, the plant areas are laid out in such a way as people can shop for plants and be bale to see what they're buying without having to stoop too much to read labels etc.

Therefore, the benches are raised up about 1' and are thus open to the wind.

This isn't a problem during winter when we used to get gales as the stock is 'run down' and those benches remain empty, but in summer they are full to bursting with plants.

I've worked there for over 12 years now and at various other garden centres for around 20 years in all and I've never experienced damage and breakages like we had the past few years due to gales in the summertime.

This alone must point to a change in the UK's climate and it's happening right under our noses.

Just think back to the last time we had a decent 'calm' period in the Midlands in June, because I believe it was right back in 2006!

As for thunderstorms, we have been getting ALOT less here in the Midlands over the last 5 years, which coincides with the jet stream shifting south over the UK every summer since then.

More cloud = less convective potential and we don't get as many Spanish plumes or unstable continental blasts, as we used to, so the thunderstorm potential for the region has been stripped back to a minimum.

We have just had one of the most damaging of thunderstorms in the Midland's history last Thursday, but I would think that a symptom of the jet stream 'holding back' the floodgates to hot and humid weather and that it 'bounced back' with a vengeance when it saw the opportunity, but now it's back to normal 'June gales' again.

Right, i'm off to work to pick up all the plants that have blown down in the plant area, as is part of my daily June routine since 2007!