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Somerset Squall

Tropical Cyclone 21 S

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A rare off season tropical cyclone has formed in the Coral Sea, South Pacific, a few hundred miles east-southeast of Papua New Guinea. 21S has an intensity of 35kts. The small cyclone has a central dense overcast covering the tight LLC. 21S is moving southwestwards but a turn towards the west is expected as ridging to the south builds, cradling the cyclone from diving south. Some strengthening is expected before shear increases in 24hrs time, which is forecast to rapidly dissipate the small cyclone.

Interesting to watch! TC's in June in the South Pacific are very uncommon.

post-1820-0-92192400-1340992822_thumb.jp

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    • By Somerset Squall
      A highly unusual tropical cyclone has formed in the Coral Sea, north of the Solomon Islands. This system is a freak in the fact that the South Pacific season finishes in late April, and we are nearly in July. The system is quite close to the equator, but is moving south along the western side of a ridge to the east. Shear is moderate, but 25P should still strengthen over warm waters until it moves south once it's cleared the Solomon Islands, where it will encounter higher shear and cooler sea temps.

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      Sources:
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      http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/
      http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/14030912/7.html
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