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DisruptiveGust

Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 28th June 2012>

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WOW what a day guys!! In a word........... SPECTACULAR

Thanks to everyone for your input into the forum today, all the reports, pictures and footage has been fantastic smile.pnggood.gif

Please continue discussing any further convective prospects for the UK in the near future...... Todays events sure will be hard to beat!!

We have a thread running to discuss todays awesome weather events and you can also add photos or any video footage you may have, right here >>>> http://forum.netweat...ootage-2862012/ <<<

Liam smile.png

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Am I ok to re-post this seeing as though the other thread has been locked?

Just wrote my forecast for tomorrow for my website, thought I would share on here.

UK Weather Forecast - Friday 29th June 2012 - Issued by Lewis Dobson

Forecast map followed by text forecast

map2.png

Text forecast for the U.K

After what has been a very eventful day consisting of, severe thunderstorms, towns & villages flooded, frequent lightning, hail the size of golf balls, and last but not least, tornados! Yes you guessed it, the weather is going to be much more quiter during tomorrow. The unstable, humid air that's influenced the UK's weather over the past 36 hours is now moving away as todays cold front has passed through, this has stabilised the air, and with this brings a fresher feel to the weather. Overnight tonight skies will clear with temperatures holding up to around 10-12ºc for Northern parts of England and Scotland, with temperatures a little warmer the further South with values of around 13-14ºc expected. As we head on through to tomorrow they will be showers bubbling up across Western parts of the United Kingdom, these will move eastwards throughout the course of the morning, becoming heavy across Eastern, North Eastern parts of England, where these may turn thundery for a time, with the small chance of some local thunderstorms, although nothing like what has been seen today.

We head further North in to Scotland, here showers will be much more widespread, and there is sufficient energy to produce some very heavy downpours with a moderate to high risk of thunderstorms, although nothing too severe, based on the latest output. Northern Ireland will experience showers, some of which may be heavy and thundry in nature. As we head further South in to Central parts of Southern England, Wales, EA and the SE, there is a chance of some showers, although more central parts of Southern England should stay dry, with breaks in the cloud leading to sunny spells. South Western parts of England will hang on to more in the way of cloud cover, thick enough to bring some spells of patchty rain, the best of the brightness across the South West will be across North Devon, running North Eastwards to the Bristol channel.

Temperatures tomorrow will be generally cooler, with the highest maximums expected to be around Eastern parts of England and Yorkshire, around 18-20ºc. Across Southern parts temperatures of around 15-17ºc, and a little cooler for Scotland and Northern Ireland, where temperatures are expected to be around 12-15ºc. I

will post a flash warning of severe weather for the areas mentioned for thunderstorm development tomorrow if necessary.

Issued by Lewis Dobson

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I think this needs to be framed and put on my wall, it's a piece of art...

post-3392-0-78841700-1340923926_thumb.jp

What a day!

I should have got out and headed up to the coast - stay out of the danger area and just watch. Even so looking at that map, another 40 - 50 miles further south and I'd still be under the coffee table haha! Anyway, back to the usual UK TS offerings - single rumble variety possible over the next couple of days.

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Wil say I take my hat off to the guys who forecasted this well with warning areas, it was only at 3pm I was saying the NE wasn't seeing any "real" action. Little did anyone really know what was to come in just a couple of hours - one of the worst storms (if not THE worst storm) for many years in many areas.

That lightening map is amazing!

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I think this needs to be framed and put on my wall, it's a piece of art...

post-3392-0-78841700-1340923926_thumb.jp

What a day!

Notice the bare patch in the middle of scotland? Guess who was under that :p Seriously though don't think anybody can ever forget what happened in a hurry. Anybody know where was the wettest place yesterday? Some places must have had multiple inches of rain

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Note the patch of lightning free air between the two active areas... there's me! :(

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Note the patch of lightning free air between the two active areas... there's me! sad.png

And me.. lol

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I think this needs to be framed and put on my wall, it's a piece of art...

post-3392-0-78841700-1340923926_thumb.jp

What a day!

64,000 plus strikes, thats got to be one of the highest 24 hour counts for Britain in a long time and one of the highest since the turn of the century surely??

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I think that one of the worst hit places was just west of Loughborough in Leicestershire.

The University was flooded and the town centre was underwater for an hour.

This EA water level meter shows the sudden rise, and breaks the previous record level.

http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/homeandleisure/floods/riverlevels/120753.aspx?stationId=2161

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Oh, and Saturday is the next convective offering, my Birthday also so I expect a present from Mother Nature, however Thursday was an unexpected large present I admit! :lol:

Conditions nothing like just gone mind and back to pulse type storms im sure but better than nothing of course. :)

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Wow what a crazy day, some of the biggest storms the UK has seen in a long time and 30c and dew points in the 20s in the SE it was jungle hot. I know what id rather have but I didnt get the one I wanted.

I noticed people said they had seen storms like that before although a long time ago so obviously they don't come around often and for those who missed out today me included will probably have to wait a fair while before something like that comes around again. cray.gif

Absolutely gutted.

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Amazing!! seen lots of pics just incredible stuff, scary stuff!

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Wow indeed and many models were pointing to this from quite far out - GFS seems have been on the mark for later in the day with the hi-res models getting the start in the right places. I see ESTOFEX (also on the ball yesterday along with the NW, UKASF and SkyWarn forecasts) have an area of Scotland in a forecast for today:

post-6667-0-92116900-1340952664.png

Storm Forecast

Valid: Fri 29 Jun 2012 06:00 to Sat 30 Jun 2012 06:00 UTC

Issued: Thu 28 Jun 2012 22:47

Forecaster: TUSCHY

A level 2 was issued for W/NW Germany mainly for large hail (a few very large hail events possible), strong to severe wind gusts, heavy to excessive rainfall amounts and an isolated tornado event.

A level 1 surrounds the level 2 mainly for isolated large hail, strong to severe wind gusts and heavy rainfall amounts. An isolated tornado event is possible.

SYNOPSIS

A strong trough just west of Europe advects a very warm and moist air mass far to the NE, which affects most of C-Europe during the forecast. Downstream of this feature, ridging covers most of S/E-Europe and keeps deep moist convection more isolated.

UKASF also looking at a similar area (lightning symbols all over the UK as well, what's that about Dan??!)

post-6667-0-96212500-1340952867.png

Forecaster: Dan

Last Updated: 2012-06-28 22:41:00

Valid: 2012-06-29 00:00:00 - 2012-06-29 23:59:00

Areas Affected:

SLGT: Scotland (excluding Shetland and Hebrides), Northern Ireland, C + E Ireland, NE and E Eng

Synopsis:

Under the influence of an upper trough, cool mid-levels overspread Britain, steepening lapse rates in conjunction with diurnal heating. Convective showers are expected to develop as a result, most frequent under the trough axis.

Discussion:

Diurnal heating will allow several hundred J/kg CAPE, with numerous showers and a few pulse-type thunderstorms forming. Sferic activity will be sporadic and well-scattered, but perhaps more focus givent to E + NE Scotland with better instability and low-level convergence.

40kts DLS and >20kts LLS may allow showers/storms to become better organised and longer lived over Perth and Fife in particular, combined with a slight backing of the surface flow with the potential for a funnel. Also in eastern Scotland, PWAT of ~22mm combined with slower storm motion could lead to some local flooding. Hail is also likely in some of the showers/storms over Scotland, locally 1-1.5cm in diameter.

Most showers will ease and decrease in coverage through the evening as diurnal heating subsides.

Here's a sprinkling of charts:

042927Z_21OWS_ATLANTIC-EUROPE_FITL_THUNDERSTORM-STANDARD_12062906.GIF

060809Z_21OWS_ATLANTIC-EUROPE_FITL_THUNDERSTORM-STANDARD_12062918.GIF

06_20.gif

12_20.gif

18_20.gif

Here's the CAPE in Scotland, with a little bit towards Eastern England again today:

gfs_cape_eur12.png

Shear:

gfs_icape_eur12.png

gfs_layer_eur12.png

gfs_lfc_eur12.png

gfs_spout_eur12.png

Lapse rates in Scotland:

gfs_lapse2_eur12.png

and there's that Tornado chart showing an area in the NE of England:

gfs_stp_eur12.png

So maybe not a day like yesterday, but still some potential out there and maybe even Stuart up there in Scotland will be out of the NSC today!!!!

post-6667-0-92116900-1340952664_thumb.pn

post-6667-0-96212500-1340952867_thumb.pn

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Before I post some analysis of todays storm potential I think it might be worth detailing and analysing some of my observations from Yesterday. First thing I noticed yesterday was a storm moving to the north of me and the strong low level flow into the storm from the south.

Next when I was parked up around lunch time around junction 2 of the M6 I observed the following.

1) A 3 minute period of heavy rain and moderate hail. Hail maximum size was a bit bigger than a pea and seemed both brittle and honeycombed rather than solid ice so that it shattered on impact. To the north east of me was the main bulk of the storm with frequent lightning.

2) Low level cloud turned so that it was going south west into what I thought might be a seperate weaker cell with a very low roiling cloud base perhaps a mile to the south. Mid Level cloud to the north in the main part of the storm was inline with the storm motion although I noticed some striations in the cloud which suggested to me the cell might be rotating. Mid level cloud to the south had a more easterly component.

3) Then I experienced a period of more gusty winds before another storm moved in with non of the anomalies above.

The next bit is subjective and not being an expert could be wrong. What could have been an explanation is that

1) The main High precipitation area moved to the north of me and the gusty winds just after the storm could be evidence of a rear flank downdraft.

2) The low base roiling cloud just to the south could have been a wall cloud.

3) The mid level direction wind differences could be due to the formation of a hook with the hook having a more easterly component rather than being a seperate right moving cell.

4) The low level cloud moving into the storm area to the south might be consistent with super saturated air from the outflow being sucked into the inflow causing increased bouyancy.

5) The follow on storm could have damped the Rear flank downdraft so that tornado development never really took of.

There again may be I am reading too much into a few observations, but it would be nice to think I was witnessing the birthing conditions for a tornado. So next time there is a storm I will be watching the sequence of events and wind directions at different levels a lot more closely. How about You ?

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Wetter today from the prolonged showers than it was yesterday. Wonder if we will actually get a grumble later

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Ok now for some analysis for today.

Cape charts suggest Eastern Scotland and parts of Ireland are Key Areas. Low level shear suggests southern eastern Scotland might have enough shear for a weak tornado. How ever the high level jet is a fair way to the south so depp layer shear here is less than it could be.

Some posibility for midlands through to lincolnshire and hull area as a mid level area of vorticity is shown on the NMM chart moving north through the afternoon.

The 6am lark hill sounding though had a marked CAP at about 700hpa and although forecast skewT's suggest this erodes I am not so sure. That mid level vorticity does not show up on satellite pictures that clarly either. Not totally convinced by the forecast SkewT's today and I suspect the dewpoints might be a little high meaning instability might be less than forecast.

Some turning of low level winds for lincolnshire and hull area so there might be a very slight chance for a tornado risk in that area especially since mid level shear is moderate.

I just get the feeling that low level winds are a little strong and instability on the meagre side for severe storms today.

Mid Level Lapse rates look limited but lightning wizards hirlam based charts do suggest some steepening.

Some risk of hail, lightning with a lesser risk of flash flooding mainly for Scotland/ireland with other areas being a rather unknown (Not convinced about the potential).

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A couple of very heavy blustery showers have already rattled through here this morning. More to come during the next few hours I think :)

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Very heavy shower rolling through here now

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Some hefty showers coming through the North East..again. No reports of Sferics as yet but I think we had our yearly quota yesterday..!

The North East is definitely one of the UK's hotspots for thunder..just like last year.post-5386-0-39762800-1340967208.txt

NW 5min radar.

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Paul Sherman (sorry and I Cumbria Marra I ) have just drawn my attention to another potential outbreak next week. GFS going with something meaty again and based on their good performance leading up to yesterday, this may be another one to keep an eye on as runs roll out:

156_20.gif

156_48.gif

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Heavy shower moving through Queensbury with squally winds.

Those charts for next week are only showing around 500J/kg of CAPE and a LI of -2. That is nothing like what we had yesterday and more akin to a usual thundery showers day isn't it? I'm not discounting as my knowledge is nothing like yours Coast but am i reading it wrong?

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Paul Sherman (sorry and I Cumbria Marra I ) have just drawn my attention to another potential outbreak next week. GFS going with something meaty again and based on their good performance leading up to yesterday, this may be another one to keep an eye on as runs roll out:

After yesterdays dissapointment here I won't be getting too excited mega_shok.gif . Heavy shower just passing over now but no Sferics. Can't believe the bad luck yesterday, 2 small rumbles in W/Yorks and Armageddon North, South, East and West.

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Paul Sherman (sorry and I Cumbria Marra I ) have just drawn my attention to another potential outbreak next week. GFS going with something meaty again and based on their good performance leading up to yesterday, this may be another one to keep an eye on as runs roll out:

156_20.gif

156_48.gif

Excellentbiggrin.png let's hope this follows through. I can't wait. Yesterday was so exciting even though I didn't get anything. I love storm days. you just never know your luck.biggrin.png

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