Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 27th June 2012>

[MP-R]

Everything seems to be dying as it heads towards Britain haha. Let's see if this changes when it meets the much higher dewpoints.

[Backtrack]

UKASF forecast is out and its a beauty!!!! If someone could post the map that would be great as i cannot see it for some reason with my internet connection

Areas Affected:

SVR: SE Scotland/Borders, NE Eng, Yorkshire, E Mids, East Anglia

MDT: NE Eng, Yorkshire, E Mids, N Cambs/W Norfolk

SLGT: Majority of United Kingdom, excluding NW Highlands and N Isles

Does NW England not exist, even though some of it is under the orange, or 'level 1' warning?

I swear, NW England get's missed out on every forecast both on TV, and now from UKASF too!

Edited June 27, 2012 by Backtrack

[I Cumbria Marra I]

So it looks like the same areas which get battered by snow every year! what a joke. am off

[Alex95]

Pretty active looking cells moving into SW Scotland now from Northern Ireland. Are these still thundery?

Also, I think the severe area of the map is too far north - for places north of Yorkshire it will be touch and go whether anything kicks off (if anything kicks off anywhere, of course). I'm surprised more showers or storms didn't pop up in the likes of East Anglia today too.

[Costa Del Fal]

Looks increasingly likely the most action will be in the NE now. Ian Fergusson has practically waved goodbye to the SW chances so unlikely to be any good for here either. Looks like we could be failed upon again. Another East event???

[Evening thunder]

Ian Fergusson â€@fergieweather

Full modified UKMO run now in. T-storm threat looks v small for W Country Thurs AM; indeed, many districts missing heavy showers entirely.

Ian Fergusson â€@fergieweather

UKMO highlights threat of severe storms with large hail tomoro afternoon E Midlands & E/NE England. Could turn v lively in those areas....

Hmm, I still don't understand this fully, I wish they would say why they show us not getting storms..

There's already been cells to our SW in the Bay of Biscay (where there's currently less CAPE) pushing our way, I wouldn't be surprised for them to be wrong on this occasion to be honest (neither would I be surprised for them to be right though..)

and theres quite a bit of rain already coming in on the radar so I can't see many areas missing heavy showers entirely.

GFS 18Z upgrades CAPE for us over-night too with precip still shown.

Must admit it will be a tad annoying if T-storms can get going to the south of Ireland where virtually no CAPE is shown yet can't get one yet again..

[Backtrack]

Still uncertainty been shown by the GFS. Never the less, it's upgraded the CAPE & LI values for tomorrow.

[PolarWarsaw]

Yawn. The one positive about this is - at least there's not alot of potential in our area Blizzards, means no disrupting of plans, late nights etc.

[Backtrack]

Wouldn't of thought most of the action would be in the North East, I'm thinking central & SE'ern areas will do the best?

[Marcus_surfer]

Big storms here...nah just drizzle

[Cheshire Freeze]

Dan's a good forecaster, I just hope he's wrong, as it will be a case of 'close, but no cigar' for the west midlands if his forecast verifies....ie an overnight MCS affecting areas less than 100 miles to the west, and possible severe convection initiating less than 50 miles to the east tomorrow, with us left high & dry....yes, it reminds me of a certain song....'MCS to the left of me, Supercells to the right, here I am, stuck in the middle near Crewe'....

Lol Crewe never gets a storm. As much as I pity myself, I pity every storm lover that lives in the vicinity!

[Costa Del Fal]

Always admire your optimism, Blizzards.

Reverse Psychology in progress here. :lol:

[Sunny Android]

Estofex looks good Backtrack.

Looking at the rain and CAPE on GFS it's 'High Noon' Tomorrow in the Mersey Valley for Static !

[Backtrack]

Estofex looks good Backtrack.

Looking at the rain and CAPE on GFS it's 'High Noon' Tomorrow in the Mersey Valley for Static !

I'm not so sure mate, I can see us missing out all together if I'm honest. Same as in winter really!

[Eskimo]

Just light rain over the channel...how thrilling.

[Allseasons-Si]

this little feature highlighted might pose something

it looks to have a sting in it's tail look about it

Edited June 27, 2012 by allseasons-si

[Chris.R]

That's what I want to hear. Just want to know if tonights MCS will hit us and what sort of time we're looking at?

[Hodgheg]

I read a post earlier about a possible MCS resulting in lots of cloud towards the north east for tomorrow. I hope that thing doesnt spoil things

[Norfolk Sheep]

Hmmm....UKASF says SVR........East Anglia etc etc, MDT......Cambs/W Norfolk. As far as I know the latter two are in East Anglia. SO where does UKASF think East Anglia is? Either way I'll take it easy access to quick routes in all directions for me tomorrow

[Harry]

Good luck one and all....I'm frustrated without a clue so off to bed.

I won't be on until late on tomorrow so wish everyone the best now...remember, mother nature works in wierd ways so rule out nothing.

[Robbie Garrett]

Good luck one and all....I'm frustrated without a clue so off to bed.

I won't be on until late on tomorrow so wish everyone the best now...remember, mother nature works in wierd ways so rule out nothing.

Don't regret it (Y)

Edited June 27, 2012 by Robbie Garrett

[HotCuppa]

20.3C here and DP 15.8C, a slight breeze, humidity at 71%. Cape appears to be low, over the Mersey.

Was surprised early evening we had nothing, despite anvil clouds and a high enough cape...in fact it did not

even rain.

Right now we have a slight breeze, but precious little else...have to see if cape rises later, not holding my breath

since we should have been seeing storms early evening and never even got a shower lol

[jamesbhx]

As someone who works in air traffic control and has access to information direct from the Met Office and other professional sources, I'm not expecting anything apart from isolated or scattered thunderstorms to happen. The area most likely to see some action when I last looked at the charts at work earlier was anywhere east of a line running London - Birmingham - Blackpool with the focus around the Nottinghamshire/Lincolnshire area. This seemed to suggest any CB development taking place east of that line from mid morning onwards until the later afternoon hours. Other areas will likely just see frontal/convective rain.

[Harry]

Don't regret it (Y)

I'll set a 4am alarm for a cursory look....oh and an amber alert for NI

Nighty night

[A.J]

this little feature highlighted might pose something

it looks to have a sting in it's tail look about it

Yes I noticed that as well....a nice clump of Cb's in western Biscay.....This is interesting because the steering winds for this area of convection and indeed most of the weather to the south/SW of the UK seems to be broadly NEerly which is at odds with some of the forecasts I've seen tonight which are keen to progress elevated convection NWwards from France into the Irish sea....definitely worth keeping an eye on