Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Pollen

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Jane Louise

Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 27th June 2012>

Recommended Posts

Ok folks, you asked for it! here's a new thread. Now get your happy hats on lol and join in the happy discussion of what may lie ahead... Yay lolwhistling.gifAnd for some reason if the storms disappoint or let you down head over to the No Storms Club for a good moan OK wink.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Showers bubbling up nearby now but only small at the moment, I'm wondering if anything might develop during the night now as that is always a possibility when it is like this.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Some heavy downpours over Northern Ireland ATM and a more general area of intense rainfall over the south of Ireland, any members over in Eire reporting any thunder? :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tbh I'm stunned by Alex Deakin's rather nonchalant forecast....whether there are thunderstorms or not, the rain through tonight and tomorrow is going to be torrential for some parts and bring a real threat of local flooding....there seems to be such an eagerness to skip over the detail that there is an, dare I say, almost negligence to what does seem almost certain for some areas of the north and west - torrential rain, potentially a few hours for some places leading to a risk of flooding.

Gets weirder the nearer we get.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Check out those storms heading out of Spain into the bay of biscay :p

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tbh I'm stunned by Alex Deakin's rather nonchalant forecast....whether there are thunderstorms or not, the rain through tonight and tomorrow is going to be torrential for some parts and bring a real threat of local flooding....there seems to be such an eagerness to skip over the detail that there is an, dare I say, almost negligence to what does seem almost certain for some areas of the north and west - torrential rain, potentially a few hours for some places leading to a risk of flooding.

Gets weirder the nearer we get.

This has a familiar ring to it. Volcanologists don't want to say anything in case they're wrong, they might speak out and cause a panic. If they get it right they're heroes, wrong and they loose the trust of the public.

The current silence is akin to that, no one want's to speak out but you watch, when one says the T word the rest will follow!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Our local Look North forecast did say thundery downpours for tomorrow so some parts of the BBC are mentioning them. I think it is down to each individual forecasters interpretation of what they are given. Had it been Rob McElwee doing the forecasts he would have been getting quite excited by now!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Whilst looking beyond the excitement of storm potential for a moment - The lakes are still very high here in Cumbria and with torrential rainfall likely resulting in some high totals this will be a rather worrying time yet again for quite a few folk! Thunder or no thunder the risk of flooding will be significant.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Our local Look North forecast did say thundery downpours for tomorrow so some parts of the BBC are mentioning them. I think it is down to each individual forecasters interpretation of what they are given. Had it been Rob McElwee doing the forecasts he would have been getting quite excited by now!

Indeed...his worshipful legend Mr McElwee would at least say "detail is rather unknown at this stage, but ingredients are there for some big thunderstorms or if not storms, thundery rain".... I miss Rob!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Check out those storms heading out of Spain into the bay of biscay blum.gif

.......................................................good.gif

Maybe some storms spreading towards the Glasgow area in the next couple of hours.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

When listening to the radio for sferics, this is the way I Do it. I tune to the lowest frequency on medium wave (AM) 520 kHZ which gives you the widest ppossible radius for detection. If you are using a small portible battery powerd radio then the radius will be around 10 to 50 miles, although this depends on the spicific radio and type of lightning. How ever, if you are using a mains powerd radio, and or one that is part of a cd/radio etc combo then you can often detect sferics upto a few hundred miles away. You can tell how far away a strike is by the sound it produces. Strikes >100 miles away will sound like sharp clicks or short quiet crackles. Strikes between 15 and 100 miles sound like distinct but soft crackles. Close strikes <15 miles away sound like strong sharp crackles or static bursts upto a few seconds in length often starting loud and ending quieter. I have found that You can sometimes even tell the type of lightning a sferic is from. IC strikes are quieter and often shorter than CG strikes, and +CG strikes are the loudest and last the longest.

This is the way I do it, but it may not be the best way although it works for me and it is surtainly a useful tool.

I hope this can help somebody with their sferic detection as I've wanted to explain how I do it for a while on here.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

20.5c with 71% humidity. Definitely not used to warm evenings like this! I can't even remember the last time we had thunder in these parts, looks like we may get some tomorrow morning....

EDIT... I'm an idiot. Those are the indoor readings!! Actual readings 18.7c and 56% humidity. Doh!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

.......................................................good.gif

Maybe some storms spreading towards the Glasgow area in the next couple of hours.

Some serifcs being shown up with that lot to coming out of spain XD Lets hope it can tap into all that energy and grow into a monster and coming inland into the UK and steaming right up to the Midlands (I can wish okay XD)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So this close and we are still hope guessing ?? Tv down here mentioned nothing but a few showers. hope they are wrong

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Crazy couple hours here in Belfast. Non-stop torrential rain. A lot of flash flooding being reported. Got myself my own Niagara Falls at the moment.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

When listening to the radio for sferics, this is the way I Do it. I tune to the lowest frequency on medium wave (AM) 520 kHZ which gives you the widest ppossible radius for detection. If you are using a small portible battery powerd radio then the radius will be around 10 to 50 miles, although this depends on the spicific radio and type of lightning. How ever, if you are using a mains powerd radio, and or one that is part of a cd/radio etc combo then you can often detect sferics upto a few hundred miles away. You can tell how far away a strike is by the sound it produces. Strikes >100 miles away will sound like sharp clicks or short quiet crackles. Strikes between 15 and 100 miles sound like distinct but soft crackles. Close strikes <15 miles away sound like strong sharp crackles or static bursts upto a few seconds in length often starting loud and ending quieter. I have found that You can sometimes even tell the type of lightning a sferic is from. IC strikes are quieter and often shorter than CG strikes, and +CG strikes are the loudest and last the longest.

This is the way I do it, but it may not be the best way although it works for me and it is surtainly a useful tool.

I hope this can help somebody with their sferic detection as I've wanted to explain how I do it for a while on here.

Great thanks Chris. Fantastic explanation.

As a massive Radio 5 Live fan and huge thunderstorm fan I can get double the entertainment at any one time....!good.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Crazy couple hours here in Belfast. Non-stop torrential rain. A lot of flash flooding being reported. Got myself my own Niagara Falls at the moment.

Any pictures :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks, I rote that all on my phone as well, twice! I posted it in the other thread but it was locked as I rote it so I had to write it all again! I've got saw fingers now LOL.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

When do we *think* the storms for central UK will kick off? radar looks meh unless your in Ireland?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Is this event going to be mainly a central england event?? as im looking at cape values there pretty good around c england but then the storm percentage looks good around the london area.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Am I right thinking that around midnight onwards is the 'key time' for tonight?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Check the rain developing in the west of the channel.... Im sure it will get heavier after dark, just hope its moves inland and gets convecting!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In light of the evening televised forecasts and updated NMM, etc, I have decided to go ahead and produce a detailed risk map of where storms could fire during the next 36 hours. Take this with a pinch of salt, it is by no means going to turn out like this, but I hope I haven't left anyone out who feels they might get a storm :)

7456236408_3587f997fc.jpg

rofl.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Similar Content

    • By Nick F
      Storm & Convective Forecast

      Issued 2018-08-06 21:33:50
      Valid: 07/08/2018 00z to 08/08/2018 00z
      THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - TUESDAY 7TH AUGUST 2018
      Synopsis
      North Atlantic upper trough will begin to amplify S and SE across the far west of Britain during Tuesday, with a strengthening upper flow across the UK – as SWly jet stream shifts S and E across the UK. Ahead of the jet streak, a weak surface cold front will progress slowly east, to lie North York Moors - West Sussex by 00z Weds. A very hot, humid and increasingly unstable airmass ahead of the cold front across SE England and East Anglia is forecast to destabilise and produce thunderstorms in the evening here before the front clears through and introduces cooler and more stable air.
      … SE ENGLAND and E ANGLIA …
      Surface-based CAPE will build up through the day due to surface heating of humid plume in conjunction with lapse rates steepening in association with advection north of EML (elevated mixed layer) aloft. However, this surface instability is likely to remain capped. However, a shortwave in the strengthening flow aloft will move NE from Bay of Biscay area in the morning crossing NW France in the afternoon. The increased lift by the shortwave along NW edge of hot and humid plume over France and SE UK combined with increasing mid-level instability as dry air intrusion punches NE overlapping plume, is forecast by many models to break out thunderstorms across Brittany and Normandy by early evening, before spreading / expanding NE across SE England then East Anglia through the evening.
      Thunderstorms are likely to be elevated, though 40-50 knots of 0-6km shear forecast will allow storm organisation into clusters, perhaps even an MCS passing over parts of Kent and eastern E Anglia, so there is potential for strong storms that may bring locally intense downpours leading to flash-flooding, isolated hail, strong wind gusts and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning. These storms should clear away NE into the North Sea after midnight.
      Issued by: Nick Finnis
    • By Supacell
      A new thread for all things convective around the UK going into the summer of 2018.
      Old thread here:
      Convective weather relating to Europe should go into here:
      A chance of a few thunderstorms this week with central and southern parts of England and Wales looking most at risk. Although Monday is now moving into the reliable timeframe it is still too early to discuss specifics for the week as a whole. It is likely though that this week will provide some thundery showers or storms for a few of us. An easterly flow will probably favour more western areas for home grown storms, but elevated storms from the continent could also affect southern and south-eastern areas at times.
    • By Dami
      Well might as well get the ball rolling early this year.
      No storms today.
    • By Jo Farrow
      Details here https://www.weatherholidays.com/
       

    • By Weather-history
      Lightning from the 1st July 2015 thunderstorm from Irlam, UK
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×