Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 26th June 2012>

[Darren Bown]

Not sure if it's the angle of the sun or not but there is a very ominous sky out east over the Pennines this evening.

[MP-R]

As I always say, fingers crossed! Things are certainly looking a lot more promising than they were this time last week when all that was had were torrential downpours one after the other.

If a storm can happen here between 5.30pm tomorrow and 8.30am on Thursday I will be chuffed. Any other time and I will severely micturated as I will be stuck in an office without a camera at hand.

[Liam J]

You looking forward to this weeks potential then?

Oh yes deffo after seeing the marked upgrade on the 12z! Just you wait though I bet we see some sort of downgrade again.....

[paul m]

I think things are going to get interesting in the next 48 hours, thats my forecast.

Lets hope we get in on the action

[Keraunic]

OH GOD!!!! The Stress of it all. *clutches hair*

[Deluxe]

I'm sure it'll be a lot of fun in here tomorrow morning. Eek!

[Harry]

Alex Deakin rather unenthused about the whole affair on News 24.

The best I've managed to extract from him so far is a lot of rain for the NW Thursday (no mention of thunder) with risk of thundery showers further south and east (despite a blue free map)

Tomorrow I'm sure will yield greater certainty...whether will be good news or bad news remains to be seen.

[Lewis]

Hmm, ECM's precip prog suggests a wake up call from Mother Nature at around 6am (Thursday).

Sure, I'll have that.

Care to share the chart please mate

[P-M]

Alex Deakin rather unenthused about the whole affair on News 24.

The best I've managed to extract from him so far is a lot of rain for the NW Thursday (no mention of thunder) with risk of thundery showers further south and east (despite a blue free map)

Tomorrow I'm sure will yield greater certainty...whether will be good news or bad news remains to be seen.

Yeah I noticed it was all very flaky to be honest and where he said thundery showers there was no rain showing?? I reckon it will all be down to nowcasting, we get an idea of areas greatest at risk but as always with the British Isles surprises can pop up in the places you would least expect them!

[Harry]

Hello all, just got in from work, and I just want to let you all know that I'm looking forward to this plume event...Forget it the SE, you guys are getting nothing!..It's the west midlands turn now boyos, & the weather gods have decreed that this plume event will now and forever be known as 'EL BRUMO'

Wouldn't say Brum is the most favoured location by any stretch...if I were a gambling man I would say Lincoln as a hotspot.

[NUT]

Still rather on the borderline for us a little I think. Argh! Just best to look at the skies and see..................

[Lewis]

[Harry]

Well the MetO FAX chart looking decidedly different from the previous run!!! Much less of a ridging influence on the near continent which should do favours for areas where stubborn capping was a concern!

The 18z GFS should make interesting reading....positively humid feel here this evening!!

Edited June 26, 2012 by Harry

[Harry]

18z marching out now

[A.J]

Wouldn't say Brum is the most favoured location by any stretch...if I were a gambling man I would say Lincoln as a hotspot.

You dare speak out and defy the weather gods mere mortal?.............They were going to strike you down with thunderbolts & lightning for your blasphemy, but realised that live in the south east so no thunderbolts & lightning being wasted on you matey, they're earmarked for elsewhere

.....Just re-read the above and have come to the conclusion 'What the hell have I been smoking tonight?'

Anyhoos, just waiting on the 18z NMM to see what the updated picture is....At the moment my feeling is a possible elevated MCS tomorrow night developing to the SW drifting slowly NEwards into the west country and the midlands, decaying somewhat as it does...If this scenario plays out, then areas to the north and east may struggle to find the neccessary solar heating on thursday to develop big storms due to detrious from overnight thundery rain/storms...anyhoos, that's just one possible scenario...The FAX charts frankly look a bit of a mess, so any number of possible scenarios may yet play out....exciting times for fans of convective weather I think you'll agree

[I Cumbria Marra I]

downgrade

[Harry]

You dare speak out and defy the weather gods mere mortal?.............They were going to strike you down with thunderbolts & lightning for your blasphemy, but realised that live in the south east so no thunderbolts & lightning being wasted on you matey, they're earmarked for elsewhere

.....Just re-read the above and have come to the conclusion 'What the hell have I been smoking tonight?'

Anyhoos, just waiting on the 18z NMM to see what the updated picture is....At the moment my feeling is a possible elevated MCS tomorrow night developing to the SW drifting slowly NEwards into the west country and the midlands, decaying somewhat as it does...If this scenario plays out, then areas to the north and east may struggle to find the neccessary solar heating on thursday to develop big storms due to detrious from overnight thundery rain/storms...anyhoos, that's just one possible scenario...The FAX charts frankly look a bit of a mess, so any number of possible scenarios may yet play out....exciting times for fans of convective weather I think you'll agree

Well, GFS presenting eastward shift again with a potential MCS feature C S and SE England, although whether that's just a cluster of showers or indeed an MCS is difficult to clarify.

The plot thickens once more.....

[Lewis]

downgrade

Is that just for your location?

I think it's about the same if not an upgrade, tomorrow certainly looks better, and the GFS is consistent with the values of energy for Thursday...

[A.J]

GFS still playing catch up with the euros- revising the entire system many miles north. *sigh*

Still shouldn't make a difference in terms of storm coverage. Just means an early start for us west Midlanders hahaa.

hmm...have to agree, 18z progresses the unstable moist plume and transfers energy more rapidly out into the near continent (benelux) ...the window for home growns on thursday narrows IMO, although as you posted it won't affect storm coverage (if any) wednesday night into thursday morning...For us up here, it seems reminiscent of april 2009?

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Is that just for your location?

I think it's about the same if not an upgrade, tomorrow certainly looks better, and the GFS is consistent with the values of energy for Thursday...

well you can see that the CAPE area has got smaller and isnt as intense as the 12z

[Harry]

Tomorrow night is going to be fun!!! As will early hours Thursday...if GFS 18z is accurate, the SE is the place to be lol (I jest at those who once jested at SE'rn chances)

I really think we are looking too much at models tbh....these mega unstable airmasses throw more surprises than not so until that point on Thursday where you see the wind swing to the W/SW, see clearing skies and that freshening chill blowing over your skin and you're waving bye bye to the nice thundery airmass to the east do yo rule anything out peeps!!!

Believe me - many a morn have I woke on a humid day, whilst being tipped to get naff all, witnessed the grumbling friction of Gods furniture emanating from a mid level, stacked with chimney turrets like a forest of young saplings amidst Satans cemetery....

Alas, I digress....rule out NOTHING!!!!!!!!

Edited June 26, 2012 by Harry

[A.J]

Tomorrow night is going to be fun!!! As will early hours Thursday...if GFS 18z is accurate, the SE is the place to be lol (I jest at those who once jested at SE'rn chances)

I really think we are looking too much at models tbh....these mega unstable airmasses throw more surprises than not so until that point on Thursday where you see the wind swing to the W/SW, see clearing skies and that freshening chill blowing over your skin and you're waving bye bye to the nice thundery airmass to the east do yo rule anything out peeps!!!

Believe me - many a morn have I woke on a humid day, whilst being tipped to get naff all, witnessed the grumbling friction of Gods furniture emanating from a mid level, stacked with chimney turrets like a forest of young saplings amidst Satans cemetery....

Alas, I digress....rule out NOTHING!!!!!!!!

You're smoking the same brand as me I see

[Liam J]

Believe me - many a morn have I woke on a humid day, whilst being tipped to get naff all, witnessed the grumbling friction of Gods furniture emanating from a mid level, stacked with chimney turrets like a forest of young saplings amidst Satans cemetery....

Huh? LOL I had to read this twice, I obviously haven't drank enough alcohol!

Central England/Midlands northwards currently my best bet on some decent storm action, this isn't ruling out elsewhere completely though. I expect an exciting day of radar & sky watching for us lot

Edited June 26, 2012 by Liam J

[A.J]

Hmm, not sure about that. NAE's not exactly showing the love for the SE at the moment.

Look like it's gonna go down from the Midlands north.

You know it makes sense.

Yep, the NAE (if it's to be believed) keeps the SE quadrant almost bone-dry throughout the entire period out to T48 on this current run....awaiting on tonights NMM run....twists & turns to come, me thinks

[P-M]

Yep, the NAE (if it's to be believed) keeps the SE quadrant almost bone-dry throughout the entire period out to T48 on this current run....awaiting on tonights NMM run....twists & turns to come, me thinks

When is that run due out if you don't mind me asking?? I am eager to know more lol