Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 26th June 2012>

[Coast]

Watch Rachel Mackley's forecast for BBC South East...either I'm getting thunder fever, or can anyone else see the phantom lightning bolts between 00:26 and 00:31???

Yes they are there!!!

I wonder if she was wavering after consulting MetO Exeter and had got them into the graphics, but thought she had taken them out of every frame for now?????!!!!!

Like so many of these situations, even the real experts are keeping their powder dry and it might not all be apparent for some time yet.

On a side issue, how does Rachel Mackley walk in those shoes she wears on the BBC forecasts???!!!!

[Bobby]

The latest NMM is looking tasty for many - showing thundery downpours moving up from the SW initially across SW England and S. Wales and spreading NE into most England

Yes please.

Doesn't seem to quite agree with the BBC though, I have a feeling much of England and Wales could see storms, along with parts of Scotland too possibly.

Those rain rates are intense. :o

Edited June 26, 2012 by Barb-

[Hodgheg]

when do the 1200Z charts start to come out?

[Harry]

The latest NMM is looking tasty for many - showing thundery downpours moving up from the SW initially across SW England and S. Wales and spreading NE into most England

Yes please.

Doesn't seem to quite agree with the BBC though, I have a feeling much of England and Wales could see storms, along with parts of Scotland too possibly.

Ditto!

I think the MetO and BBC are being overly hesitant at this stage...however, I would say that usually when they jump the gun they are wrong, so this is a positive sign IMO.

In any event, that trough/CF has to clear through the unstable air across most of England and Wales so anywhere IMO is fair game at this stage....

[Methuselah]

Ditto!

I think the MetO and BBC are being overly hesitant at this stage...however, I would say that usually when they jump the gun they are wrong, so this is a positive sign IMO.

In any event, that trough/CF has to clear through the unstable air across most of England and Wales so anywhere IMO is fair game at this stage....

On the other hand, Harry - they may get it right?

[Harry]

On the other hand, Harry - they may get it right?

Maybe, but I'm strongly steering against that hypothesis at this stage...note that I'll be the first to congratulate them if they are right (and of course apologise for being critical).

I expect over the next 12-24 hours the forecast to change in favour of thundery activity (unless of course there is a significant shift in synoptics in that time frame)

[Methuselah]

Maybe, but I'm strongly steering against that hypothesis at this stage...note that I'll be the first to congratulate them if they are right (and of course apologise for being critical).

I expect over the next 12-24 hours the forecast to change in favour of thundery activity (unless of course there is a significant shift in synoptics in that time frame)

Well, I certainly hope so, Harry...I'm getting plume-starved!

[Lewis]

I'm very happy with the 06z GFS, coming in to NMM range now. Some 900-1100 cape around the South and West/East Midlands tomorrow with a -4 LI. Could be some very slow moving torrential storms tomorrow for these areas.

Looking forward to it coming in range for Thursday.

Also guys, as you aware we run the UK storm chasing network, we are arranging some chases/events for tomorrow and also Thursday, if you want information or want to chase with us you can follow us on facebook for the latest information.

We have a few experienced net-w members leading the way!

https://www.Null

Lewis

[Mapantz]

I see Notts, Derbys, Lincs, S and W Yorks areas being the favoured spots for actual storms. But you cannot rule out a rumble or two in areas where the rain is heaviest.

[Coast]

So, would you like some lightning with your storm Sir, Madam????

AFWA (Air Force Weather Agency - USA) ensembles are a mix of GFS and their own I believe, so maybe that's why the emphasis is more to the East currently as GFS has been trending that way?

http://www.dtcenter....s/zapotocny.pdf

Maybe, but I'm strongly steering against that hypothesis at this stage...note that I'll be the first to congratulate them if they are right (and of course apologise for being critical).

I expect over the next 12-24 hours the forecast to change in favour of thundery activity (unless of course there is a significant shift in synoptics in that time frame)

Harry, you'll get splinters in yer bum sitting on that fence!!!!!

[Bobby]

An interesting feature showing the MetO map for tonight too

Just heavy rain or something convective?

The HIRLAM rain accumulation seem to agree with the NMM

Well the MetO regional forecast mentions thundery rain/showers (this for Wales/SW England)

Rain or showers Thursday, perhaps thundery, clearing later. Becoming windy with coastal gales possible. Friday and Saturday unsettled and windy with showers or more prolonged rain, but feeling much fresher.

Edited June 26, 2012 by Barb-

[Supacell]

I am 99% certain that storms will materialise somewhere in the British Isles....where, when and whether they'll be severe in anyway is the mystery...but storms I think between 12z Weds to 18z Thurs are almost a certainty.

Yes i do think there will be storms but it is where they will be which is important from a storm chasing point of view. We'll know more by this evening i think (at least regarding tomorrow).

I've been out in the sunshine this morning and it definitely feels warm and muggy out there.

And the BBC forecasts are talking about thundery showers tomorrow. I also heard Miss Tobin mention a thundery breakdown on Thurs earlier on today

I miss Rob McElwee lol

Edited June 26, 2012 by Supacell

[Mapantz]

Thundery downpour here right now.

[Harry]

These are my thoughts for 12z Weds through to 18z Thursday....yellow zones are where I think there is a low risk of seeing a thunderstorm (i.e in favour of seeing a thunderstorm/thundery shower but low coverage)...my reasoning for having less towards the West is the earlier onset of frontal activity. I suspect a fairly decent risk of thundery rain, but discreet thundery showers/storms are low IMO. I think through the period the NE and E England seem most favoured to see thunderstorms/thundery showers, with a risk prevalent both tomorrow afternoon and again on Thursday, hence I would suggest a High risk here. Elsewhere in England and Wales I would suggest a Moderate chance.

I hasten to add this is solely based on current information and I will be playing around with the boundaries somewhat over the coming 12-24 hours...also, my chart in no way reflects severity, just probability during the period. Final caveate, I notice on my chart the fringes of Cornwall/W Wales just outside the orange line...this wasn't intentional, just gave up after the 10th draft, lol.

Edited June 26, 2012 by Harry

[Coast]

I'm thinking of producing a map myself, with accurate areas of Thursday's thunderstorm and lightning activity covered in great detail down to the nearest 20 miles or so.

Check back here on Friday when I've completed it............

[Supacell]

From the latest Hirlam suite i am still going for areas to the SW in the early hours of Thursday for the best possibilities. Counties such as Cornwall, Devon, Somerset, Dorset and up into S Wales and the SW Midlands. Certainly not the only areas at risk though, but this area looks to have the best overlap of helicity, DLS, parcel layer depth and MLCAPE.

I am only an amateur so please correct me if i am seeing this wrong - (sooner rather than later so i haven't already booked my hotel room on the south coast of Devon )

[Mapantz]

From the latest Hirlam suite i am still going for areas to the SW in the early hours of Thursday for the best possibilities. Counties such as Cornwall, Devon, Somerset, Dorset and up into S Wales and the SW Midlands. Certainly not the only areas at risk though, but this area looks to have the best overlap of helicity, DLS, parcel layer depth and MLCAPE.

I am only an amateur so please correct me if i am seeing this wrong - (sooner rather than later so i haven't already booked my hotel room on the south coast of Devon )

Well i'm in a great spot for views here, so i will report anything asap when i'm about. I don't have to get up work for Thurs/Fri - so it's the pub for me, and then whatever else heppens after that.

[Hodgheg]

I think things are going to get interesting in the next 48 hours, thats my forecast.

[Coast]

I am only an amateur so please correct me if i am seeing this wrong

If you're currently taking HiRLAM, then yes, they are showing it more to he SW to start off with. If you take GFS, they are still tending to the East a little more. I'm not sure about UK MetO.

Me??? I'll take the radar and lightning detectors from Thursday morning onwards!! - I'll still post all that chart gumpf in the meantime though, so you can make your own minds up

[Harry]

I'm thinking of producing a map myself, with accurate areas of Thursday's thunderstorm and lightning activity covered in great detail down to the nearest 20 miles or so.

Check back here on Friday when I've completed it............

Very flip Mr Robin!

[Coast]

Very flip Mr Robin!

You knows I'm only joshing H!!!!!

This one is a bar-lamb to pin down at the moment, well done for sticking it out there!

[PolarWarsaw]

I think I may be the only one, but I can see absolutely nothing to get excited about for my particular area. It looks like being a west misses out and 40 miles east bags it all again. Highly infuriating now.

[toggerob]

I'm off to Waddo on Friday, forecast showers for the weekend but you never know with the instability forecasted to be around. For once i'll be the '40 miles East' where I need to be.

[Coast]

Highly infuriating now.

Chill Radders, it's only the weather!!!!!

[Eskimo]

If it's an more comforting to you westerners, I have not even seen a thunderstorm this year and guess what...I live in the East...and around London where most of the storms have been!