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Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 26th June 2012>

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So, still some potential for a Spanish plume based storm for some this week, will this be the return of El Gordo - the fat one??!!!!

post-6667-0-78410900-1340693781_thumb.gi

Only a few days left to find out!!!!

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hoping to see something out in the channel Wed night.

Heading out to the ridge near kimmerage bay, Dorset which has amazing views out over the channel.

Roped the new girl friend into driving me out there from Bournemouth. She likes a storm but never thought of chasing. Just hope we see something because there is nothing like sitting in a car park for 6hrs and seeing bugger all to put a noob of chasing.

Bang goes my chances of another lift if that happens.

Anyone else chasing Wed/Thurs in the Dorset/Hamp. area

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Already some ideas and indications coming through - some starting as early as tomorrow:

055709Z_21OWS_ATLANTIC-EUROPE_FITL_THUNDERSTORM-STANDARD_12062712.GIF

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Then what about Thursday ?

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Looks like current GFS thinking has given the extreme SE (yes, that's me!!) a little hope and then further up the country later in the day.

gfs_cape_eur60.png

gfs_icape_eur60.png

gfs_stp_eur60.png

gfs_cape_eur66.png

gfs_icape_eur66.png

gfs_srh_eur66.png

Is it El Gordo??? Maybe not, but it looks to follow similar lines and areas to the storm this time last year and maybe Kent, Sussex and Surrey will kick things off during the early afternoon, with things transferring into Essex, East Anglia and beyond after that?

Hi-Res charts now coming into the timescale:

hir_cape_eur60.png

Maybe the SW will get a meaty taster???

hir_cape_eur60.png

hir_icape_eur60.png

hir_layer_eur60.png

HiRLAM has it a little more intense and further West at the start than GFS currently:

hir_lfc_eur60.png

Just a few hours now until the Hi-res Netweather extra charts come in and we can start getting excited/sad!!!!!

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Anyone else chasing Wed/Thurs in the Dorset/Hamp. area

I still have a number of options i am exploring but one of them involves positioning around Poole/Weymouth for the early hours of Thursday morning. Hirlam charts look very promising for the early hours in the SW as i posted above, but GFS is currently showing the east/north east being the best place to be slightly later on (Thurs afternoon). That being said, i would be unlikely to travel down to the SW unless there is more agreement when we start getting access to the hi-res charts :)

BBC/Met office still being very cagey on this one.

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Hi Dave, I'll be out and about Wed/Thur. Think I'll be heading towards Ringstead bay over looking Weymouth bay and great views over Portland, maybe further West if needs be.

I'm sure you and the new girlfriend can keep ya selves occupied if there are no stormed :-p

I've taken the girlfriend out 3 times so far this year and had nothing! She's not so keen on coming anymore and can't understand why I drive for miles all day to watch heavy rain showers, or we end up driving 3 hours east only to get a call saying there is a massive storm over our village lol.

Good luck.

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I still have a number of options i am exploring but one of them involves positioning around Poole/Weymouth for the early hours of Thursday morning.

Take a mix of the current output of the various models and that might be the right place!!! So much can change even at this range, so I'd be looking to tomorrow lunchtime onwards maybe?

I've taken the girlfriend out 3 times so far this year and had nothing! .

Perhaps she's a good girl????? :whistling:

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It looks to me as though the chances have been decreasing all the while. The rain intensity on the GFS op runs have been getting less and less for Thursday. The CAPE values have been toned down at least on GFS

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It looks to me as though the chances have been decreasing all the while. The rain intensity on the GFS op runs have been getting less and less for Thursday. The CAPE values have been toned down at least on GFS

Always happens with GFS. We'll be nowcasting this event on the day. Of course there is a chance it could turn out to be a damp squib for everyone, however I'm not too worried with the GFS downgrades (unless the CAPE disappears entirely!) :)

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I still have a number of options i am exploring but one of them involves positioning around Poole/Weymouth for the early hours of Thursday morning.

Hi Dave, I'll be out and about Wed/Thur. Think I'll be heading towards Ringstead bay over looking Weymouth bay and great views over Portland, maybe further West if needs be.

I'm sure you and the new girlfriend can keep ya selves occupied if there are no stormed :-p

I've taken the girlfriend out 3 times so far this year and had nothing! She's not so keen on coming anymore and can't understand why I drive for miles all day to watch heavy rain showers, or we end up driving 3 hours east only to get a call saying there is a massive storm over our village lol.

Good luck.

Was also thinking about Portland on the Wed night but not sure how far my girlfriend will be up for driving as she has work early on Thurs. And yea your right Hazard, should be able to pass the time, note to self, dont forget the scabble ;)

Been trying to rope mates in for a chase on Thurs but no joy so far. Im car less at mo. so If anyone fancies some company and some fuel money ;)

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Without even looking at CAPE etc., I quite like the look of the synoptics of the Met Office Fax charts, so am reasonably optimistic we'll have some sort of event.smile.png

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Take a mix of the current output of the various models and that might be the right place!!! So much can change even at this range, so I'd be looking to tomorrow lunchtime onwards maybe?

Perhaps she's a good girl????? :whistling:

Lol maybe I should try taking her out for a meal instead of storm chasing :-p

I think we do stand a good chance down on the Dorset coast early hours of Thursday but still a lot to play for and lots can change.

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Seems the potential has been toned down somewhat on the latest runs, not looking brilliant ATM but far from a disaster.

NMM will be into range soon..... whistling.gif

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Lol maybe I should try taking her out for a meal instead of storm chasing :-p

Well, flowers at the very least!!!! (and not those ones from the petrol station!!) give_rose.gif

Seems the potential has been toned down somewhat on the latest runs, not looking brilliant ATM but far from a disaster.

NMM will be into range soon..... whistling.gif

I'm staying completely open minded and watching the fun and games as the roller-coaster gets into full swing!

LightningBoltLogo.jpg

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I'm staying completely open minded and watching the fun and games as the roller-coaster gets into full swing!

LightningBoltLogo.jpg

Best way! No point getting wound up and frantic..... YET, take a deep breath and exhale, see much better blum.gif

Seriously, I will be royally upset if we see nothing but bog standard cloud and rain, loads of time yet though.

Currently 18.2c here with cloud approaching from the SW and feeling quite muggy even today.

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Was also thinking about Portland on the Wed night but not sure how far my girlfriend will be up for driving as she has work early on Thurs. And yea your right Hazard, should be able to pass the time, note to self, dont forget the scabble ;)

Been trying to rope mates in for a chase on Thurs but no joy so far. Im car less at mo. so If anyone fancies some company and some fuel money ;)

Google Ringstead bay mate, its not as far as Portland but great views of the channel if its all further West, then you also got the option of Abbotsbury hill if its on a more Westerly track.

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What is this el Gordo people refer to?

blush.png Sorry, I'm guilty there. A flight of fantasy from this time last year when I was looking for a unique identifier for the Spanish Plume based storms that finally materialised on the 28th June 2011:

http://forum.netweat...orm-discussion/

http://forum.netweat...m-discussion-2/

http://forum.netweat...m-discussion-3/

http://forum.netweat...m-discussion-4/

http://forum.netweat...m-discussion-5/

http://forum.netweat...rm-discussion-6

A weak attempt to give a UK storm a name like the US ones!!!!

I do like the question though, just needs changing to:

"Who is this El Gordo the villagers refer to"

then spoken in a very thick Spanish accent and set to the music of 'The good, the bad and the ugly'!!!!rofl.gif

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Hi guys.

Downgrades again, although looking forward to the high res models when they come in range.

I've done an upgrade on the weather watch, wish I had better news :(

http://www.null/

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What is this el Gordo people refer to?

It's one of the very few plume type scenarios for parts of the UK last summer...It's something that the sarf-easteners keep banging on about, but for us westerners it was a non-event, and not worth giving the time of day for.....here in the west midlands, this plume event was known by the moniker 'El Crapo'......Me bitter?....never! wink.png

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Hi guys.

Downgrades again, although looking forward to the high res models when they come in range.

I've done an upgrade on the weather watch, wish I had better news sad.png

http://www.null/

??....depends on what comparisons you're using Lewis.....certainly an upgrade from the 00z run in terms of surface CAPE, bouyancy & dewpoint spread for wednesday and thursday.....if you're comparing like for like (ie, yesterday's 06z GFS and today's 06 GFS's then yes, substantially less condusive 'big storm' parameters, but that's to be expected as the storm parameters that the GFS has been showing up until yesterday were bordering on the ridiculous and were always highly unlikely to verify

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South East -

Wednesday:

A dry and cloudy start with some sunny spells developing. It will become very warm and humid with light winds. There is a risk of some showery afternoon rain. Maximum Temperature 26 °C.

Outlook for Thursday to Saturday:

Warm and humid with some showers on Thursday then becoming cooler and staying windy with rain or showers for the start of the weekend.

Issued at: 0331 on Tue 26 Jun 2012

Rest of UK -

Wednesday:

A dry and cloudy start with some sunny spells developing. It will become very warm and humid with light winds. There is a risk of some showery afternoon rain. Maximum Temperature 26 °C.

Outlook for Thursday to Saturday:

Warm and humid with some showers on Thursday then becoming cooler and staying windy with rain or showers for the start of the weekend.

Issued at: 0331 on Tue 26 Jun 2012

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Anyone remember this day? Seems 28th June always wants to be a bright spark.

Rrea00120050628.gif

57,873 strikes. Most active at 33 strikes per second.

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Fax charts suggest a warm front moving north tomorrow which could breakdown and give an isolated storm although mid level lapse rates look poor.

Fax chart for thursday suggests a trough moving north in the warm sector. If it plays out like that then we might get a few storms.

Forecast SkewT suggest dry air aloft, moderate instability and some good wind speed shear. Something the lightning wizard charts are picking up on.

To early for any detail and the models can change, but worth a quick heads up as this is the kind of scenario where you might get a slightly more severe storm.

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It feels certainly warmer and more humid today in these parts.

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A quick look at the Hestmonceux forecast soundings puts the current projection of the sweet spot there as lunchtime Thursday:

post-6667-0-27187500-1340706983_thumb.pn

Nottingham fares better later in the day:

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Exeter doesn't seem to get going at all, which corresponds with the latest GFS, but not the HiRLAM, which still favours a more Westerly attack:

post-6667-0-88435700-1340707293_thumb.pn

I'm loving watching the evolution as the hours count down and the swaying backwards and forwards of potential and East to West with different data sets.

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