Wettest Summer Since Records Began - Can It Get Worse?

[Backtrack]

Was just thinking about Summer, and surely, July CAN'T be as bad as June can it?

At the minute, I see no clear evidence to suggest a pattern change in the next 2-3 weeks at least, what do you guys think?

[Snowy Easterly]

oh it can be, we all thought winter couldn't continue to be bad after that stupidly mild november and december

albeit we did have one very cold week in feb

Edited June 24, 2012 by Snowy Easterly

[Aaron]

Of course it can.

[Scorcher]

I think this month has been worse than many believed possible. I think it shows never to take anything for granted with the British weather, ie. 'it has been so bad that it has to get better'. I want to believe there is going to be an improvement but it's possible it could continue like this for a few more weeks.

[Snowy Easterly]

i know people always say this, but i really fear if this northerly blocking continues yet again by autumn it will disappear and the return of the azores high will set up shop for winter, it has been a terrible year for us seasonal lovers, but for people like gavin at least he had a mild winter to enjoy, and the cold/cool summer lovers are enjoying this weather now

Edited June 24, 2012 by Snowy Easterly

[Aaron]

The past winter was not really mild - my data shows it was actually very average - the lack of snow in December and January was really shocking however.

[ohno]

Why is lack of snow in the winter shocking?.. We barely get snow in any winter.... of-course theres always an exception.. If we do get snow its gone the next day. Due to rain that comes from the Atlantic... our weather basically comes from the Atlantic and thats why our summers are garbage on many occasions..And yes this theme could last for a very long time..

[Weather-history]

Was just thinking about Summer, and surely, July CAN'T be as bad as June can it?

Some people probably asked that same question after June 2007, July was even worse.

[Liam J]

The only positive benefit this month over say October/november has been the longer daylight hours, depressing the weather can be the same all year in the UK regrdless of what the season is. The exception being cold and frosty weather for a certain slice of the core months of the year/summer due to the high sun and long days.

So yes July can be every bit as bad as June has been because june has been immitating November in a very believable fashion!

Edited June 24, 2012 by Liam J

[Snowy Easterly]

The past winter was not really mild - my data shows it was actually very average - the lack of snow in December and January was really shocking however.

it was here, many days we had temps in double digits, most of feb was very mild apart from the first week, in fact feb was not that much cooler than it has been this month, second half of december was also stupidly mild

Why is lack of snow in the winter shocking?.. We barely get snow in any winter.... of-course theres always an exception.. If we do get snow its gone the next day. Due to rain that comes from the Atlantic... our weather basically comes from the Atlantic and thats why our summers are garbage on many occasions..And yes this theme could last for a very long time..

i agree to some extent that we shouldn't be surprised by mildness in winter, but it should still snow at some point in winter

[Milhouse]

What annoys me most is that flick through the archives from the last 5 years and you come across lots of superb charts for warmth during the Autumn and Winter. Take last Autumns heatwave for example. It still delivered high 20s which would be very good for Summer but just think how hot it would have been if it has occurred in July. We could have been looking at 6 consecutive days of 35c+ making a heatwave on a par with August 2003. And to make matters worse the persistent southerlies carried on throughout much of November.

[Terminal Moraine]

One man's bad is another man's good and I am that man.

As far as I'm concerned this month has been one of the best summer months I can remember, even better than June 2007 as that one started with about 10 days of dry, warm and relatively sunny weather before the deluge at the end.

As to whether July can match it, it is possible but I doubt it will be as wet or as cool, even relativey speaking, as June. I can think of a few wet, cloudy and cool Julys, ie 1965, 1980, 1988 and 2007 but none of them could match this month for lack of sunshine and excessive rainfall, at least in this area.

June 2012 is likely to match August 2004 as one of my all time favourite summer months.

[Scorcher]

What annoys me most is that flick through the archives from the last 5 years and you come across lots of superb charts for warmth during the Autumn and Winter. Take last Autumns heatwave for example. It still delivered high 20s which would be very good for Summer but just think how hot it would have been if it has occurred in July. We could have been looking at 6 consecutive days of 35c+ making a heatwave on a par with August 2003. And to make matters worse the persistent southerlies carried on throughout much of November.

Let's just hope that we can get those kind of charts a month or more earlier this year. It would be nice to finally have some heat in August- I can barely remember the last time we had a good heatwave in August. In fact it was probably 2003. The jet had 'burnt' itself out by mid September last year but of course we had that superb April. This year we had a terrible April and only a blip in late May, so hopefully it will allow August to be settled this year.

[Backtrack]

Well, to kick-start July, we're off to a FLYING start..... if you like it cool with showers.

GFS:

ECM:

Unsettled in the North, and probably very unseasonably cool with dare I say it? Wintryness over the Scottish mountains... uppers at 0C to -1C. Will probably be watered right down though.

ECM has a slacker flow, probably just as cool though, uppers again 0C, elsewhere 2-4C, maxes of 9-17C, not good!

GFS has the Azores high building later on in the run though, probably finally bringing some more seasonal weather, will most likely be temporary though.

[Summer Sun]

Well, to kick-start July, we're off to a FLYING start..... if you like it cool with showers.

GFS:

ECM:

Unsettled in the North, and probably very unseasonably cool with dare I say it? Wintryness over the Scottish mountains... uppers at 0C to -1C. Will probably be watered right down though.

ECM has a slacker flow, probably just as cool though, uppers again 0C, elsewhere 2-4C, maxes of 9-17C, not good!

GFS has the Azores high building later on in the run though, probably finally bringing some more seasonal weather, will most likely be temporary though.

Yep early July is looking wet worryingly there is more rain for the flood hit north west

[Backtrack]

Yep early July is looking wet worryingly there is more rain for the flood hit north west

http://forum.netweat...40#entry2321873

Lmao, let's hope them precipitation charts don't come off, otherwise we will be looking at some widespread flooding.

[Summer Sun]

Lmao, let's hope them precipitation charts don't come off, otherwise we will be looking at some widespread flooding.

Rain is still in the forecast for early July, we could also see further flooding on Thursday yet depending on how heavy it is

[laserguy]

One man's bad is another man's good and I am that man.

As far as I'm concerned this month has been one of the best summer months I can remember, even better than June 2007 .....

.... with knobs on! Today isn't up to much,mind. Been sunny albeit a little breezy all day. Ah July next week,so when all's said and done there's 8 weeks before thoughts turn in earnest to Autumn. Keep strong TM,not long now!

[Summer Sun]

.... with knobs on! Today isn't up to much,mind. Been sunny albeit a little breezy all day. Ah July next week,so when all's said and done there's 8 weeks before thoughts turn in earnest to Autumn. Keep strong TM,not long now!

Come September the Azores will be setting up again no doubt to give us a reminder of what coud have been still last September was lovely so a repeat would be nice

[Polar Maritime]

.... with knobs on! Today isn't up to much,mind. Been sunny albeit a little breezy all day. Ah July next week,so when all's said and done there's 8 weeks before thoughts turn in earnest to Autumn. Keep strong TM,not long now!

The last few weeks have felt like Autumn here so im not grumbling, as Gav has said a repeat of last September would be nice, But i want be crossing my fingers.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I just wanted 25th june to 8th july warm and sunny, and not going to happen, unbelievable!, want it unsettled for rest of summer, but probably wont be

[laserguy]

I know,I know! Last October's sun and warmth was quite ridiculous and I wouldn't be in the least surprised to see a repeat. Still,the days are short then and have an entirely different feel to them. At this rate it'll be snowing in July and August and 30C+ in Jan and Feb within a decade. Summat else for the globowarmists to prevaricate over.... Sigh.

[Aaron]

Perfect weather today for the Olympic torch.. shame I live so close though because it sure is noisy outside right now.. I wish people would realise our small off-road is not meant for lots of vehicles..

[Roger J Smith]

I expect gradual improvement leading to warm and dry conditions by mid-July. This is not particularly unusual in historical terms.

However, June has shown some interesting trends compared to "high summer" in July-August. Long-term, June is 1.5 C deg cooler than combined July-August (14.3 vs 15.8.). But averaged over time, this differential has varied from almost a flat signature (same temps) in the 1830s-1840s, something seen briefly again around 1965-66, to a more recent period when June was more like 2.5 C colder (1971 to 1997 averaged 2.33 C). This has been the only long period with such a signature but the more recent trend from 1998 to 2011 has been closer to the long-term normal although still closer to 2.0 C.

Now, if you look at individual years, these are the only cases where June was in the range 13.0 to 14.0 and either July or August exceeded 17.0 with an average rise of at least 3.0 from June to July-August ...

1677 (13.0, 18.0, 15.0)

1800 (13.9, 17.7, 16.8.)

1803 (13.7, 17.6, 16.1)

1820 (13.4, 16.4, 17.2)

1852 (13.3, 18.7, 15.8.)

1944 (13.5, 16.5, 17.0)

1955 (13.8, 17.7, 18.1)

1990 (13.6, 16.9, 18.0)

and from warmer starts but not really warm Junes

1779 (14.4, 17.9, 17.6)

1911 (14.5, 18.2, 18.2)

1983 (14.4, 19.5, 17.3)

1995 (14.3, 18.6, 19.1)

1997 (14.1, 16,7, 18.9)

An even warmer case was 1975 (14.7, 18.7, 17.6). This was about the warmest June to satisfy the criteria selected.

The 1990 possible analogue has some very similar looking maps near the end of June (1990) to this coming week. The cyclonic influence that summer faded out gradually in early to mid July and much higher 500-mb heights pushed the jet stream well north by late July leading to several very hot days in early August (I think I recall a 38 C reading in Gloucester from a friend on holiday).

The 1997 analogue (valid because this June is looking set to finish in the high 13s) is also a developing El Nino year. 1800 and 1803 could be compared for solar trends (near max in weak cycle at start of Dalton). Many of the 20th century years on the list have had a similar first-half warmth in North America (notably 1944, 1983, 1990). The 1995 case, while a bit warmer in June, had the cold May that seemed similar for three weeks out of the month.

With the early frequency of tropical events and an obvious relaxation of the Greenland blocking underway, I would say we may find 2012 joining this list of rather select years where summer did not necessarily tip its hand early.

(There was another sub-set of large anomaly shifts from very cool Junes like 1972 to near-normal July-Aug, about the same increases as discussed above, but from a lower starting point, and one or two cases where a cold June still led to a hot summer, for example, 1749 when June 11.9 led to July 17.2, and similarly 1923 from 12.5 to 17.5. then 1991 from 12.1 to 17.3, 17.1).

Edited June 25, 2012 by Roger J Smith

[knocker]

The worst-kept secret in Britain was confirmed yesterday by the Environment Agency: the period from April to June this year was the wettest since records began.

As the Midlands and northern England began the clean-up after torrential rain caused widespread flooding and chaos, it emerged that England and Wales had received more than double the average rainfall this month.

The agency said in a statement: “The period April to June is now the wettest on record in all our regions. Rainfall amounts for the three-month period to date range from 268mm in the Anglian region to 427mm in Wales.â€

The Met Office confirmed that the total rainfall in the UK between April 1 and June 27 this year, of 323.4mm, had already beaten the previous record of 296.5mm set in 1931. That compares with a long-term average for the three-month period of 208.4mm.

http://www.thetimes....icle3460685.ece

Edited June 30, 2012 by knocker