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Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 20th June 2012>

Jane Louise

By Jane Louise
in Storms & Severe Weather

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Gael_Force Accomplished

Gael_Force

Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
Posted

The hi res Hirlam is showing dew points climbing to 15c+ overnight into Thursday from the south, no cape/lift index charts from this model? I can't find any. NAE will be coming into range overnight. smile.png

I'd say moderate ATM, the timing of the front will either make it or break it. I'd like my heavy rain to be accompanied by flashes and bangs.... blum.gif

HIRLAM lifted index charts on Weather Online.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=aemet&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=lftx&HH=6&ARCHIV=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=&WMO=

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ZONE 51 Community Regular

ZONE 51

Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
Posted (edited)

Last years plume 27th/28th didn't the cold front stall on the east side on the tuesday? were ment to get storms the night before, the air was so muggy/humid, very warm the next day, very dense cloud and storms rumbled through here into London one after another! pulsing northeast up the front.

This time we still has a lot of potential, the impressive colourful gfs charts usually downgrade, this is because maybe it over does other things and this reflects on the CAPE? but still plenty of energy to be used, it's not a complete wipe out!

Edited by ElectricSnowStorm
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ZONE 51 Community Regular

ZONE 51

Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
Posted (edited)

The NAE shows an interesting feature moving E across the south tomorrow night

12062703_2518.gif

Convective, thundery? Probably not...

Same chart different view

12062706_2_2518.gif

Lets see what things show later,

It's going to be humid though.

The next chart is for Wednesday evening, humid, the yellow is unstable air, (orange and red is very unstable), so widespread potential for thundery weather..

12062718_2_2518.gif

Take alook at this next chart! (what i'm interested in mostly here is that area down over/around the channel islands)this is a vertical velocity chart

12062800_2_2518.gif

next is the rainfall at the same period of time..

12062803_2_2518.gif

That could well be an MCS heading to our shores into early hours Thursday, looking at other data i would expect imported storms, it is about timing of how things interact, and that could mean to either sweep things east and clip Kent for example, or to flow the storms northeast across central areas including the Southeast/East Anglia, all very interesting, i read about downgraded gfs, but it's really not that worrying at this stage if you like storms!

A night storm with mega lightning displays is what i want!

Edited by ElectricSnowStorm
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Supacell Accomplished

Supacell

Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
Posted (edited)

An early start for me today but had a quick look at the charts.

The latest GFS are downgrading the massive instability they had been showing, but its still not poor by any means. Hirlam charts coming into range now also for weds night into the early hours of thursday. From what i can see there could be something along channel coastlines. Take a look at these charts for 6am thursday (focusing your eyes around IOW and westwards):

Some deep layer shear to help organisation of storms and ICAPE (which i think may be similar to MUCAPE but not sure) over 1500j/kg!!

post-2719-0-69947800-1340686921_thumb.pn

Parcel layer depth is looking good, some of the best i have seen this year

post-2719-0-66420600-1340686937_thumb.pn

There is a decent amount of helicity in there too and i think the yellow and blue lines indicate supercell possibilities (although i think supercells may be pushing it a bit)

post-2719-0-58176200-1340686950_thumb.pn

And this is the MLCAPE (for early in the morning this is impressive)

post-2719-0-05784800-1340686973_thumb.pn

Add to this a cold front out west and a trough moving through the SW at this time, surely this would be everything that is needed for some spectacular storms to open Thursday!

Edited by Supacell
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staplehurst Community Regular

staplehurst

Posted
  • Location: Norwich
  • Location: Norwich
Posted

Pleasing to see the last 2 runs of the GFS, which back up my initial thoughts all along. I suspect The Wash down to the IoW eastwards won't see much if anything in the way of storms - exactly how the ECM and UKMO have been playing it for several days now.

Best bet is and has been all along for NE Eng down to Lincs...

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

Time for a new thread eh?????? Give me 5 mins to find the keys to lock this one up!!!!

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/73677-uk-convective-general-discussion-forecasts-26th-june-2012/

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