Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 20th June 2012>

[Keraunic]

Maybe tomorrow for us in EA. Wish it could be tonight though. Good luck and hope you all have a stormy night.

[Biggin]

Oh dear if thats correct. little or no chance for me. Bedtime it is.

[Staffordshire]

I took a screenshot for you guys;

Lewis

nice one lewis! will you be chasing tommorow?

[mattyk1985]

I'm hoping to chase tomorrow, finish work at 2 so should be good time. Wheres the best area to do it around the humber, as I'm new to all this!

[Methuselah]

Thanks for that, Lewis...

[Norfolk Sheep]

Maybe tomorrow for us in EA. Wish it could be tonight though. Good luck and hope you all have a stormy night.

Not holding my breath either way

[Mesoscale]

looks like nothing here again, as always. I keep holding my breath but its close but no cigar.

[Methuselah]

Another one bites the dust?

[DeepSnow]

Just rain rain and more rain, had 5.1mm so far but nothing in the way or thunder or lightning!

[Costa Del Fal]

It really isnt worth staying up for this guys imo. All day its looked like very limited thundery weather. Ive thought this all day and I stand by my judgment.

[Aceman]

Feels really humid here but it might be cider related....

[Harry]

Estofex have an early forecast out (extract below)...read the amazing text before this though on the estofex website re the MCS just across the shore from us (but which COULD possibly come very close)

Scattered storms are also forecast over SE-UK, placed beneath the left exit region of the mid/upper jet. Strength of diffluence and connection to the moisture plume over NE-France may result in scattered thunderstorm development and rapid clustering. Heavy rainfall will be the main hazard with isolated marginal hail and strong wind gusts in stronger/more discrete storms. Drier air mixes in from the SW after 21Z and brings thunderstorm chances to an end. Wrap-around moisture may also result in heavy rainfall over parts of UK/Scotland during the night.

[Keraunic]

Not holding my breath either way

Nah, me neither. Night all.

[toggerob]

Got to feel some pity for those braving the elements tonight out across the Stone Circles and henges as the weather deteriorates into the early hours. Some brave people staying up for the Solstice but in this weather, crazy.

[Phelpsy]

Over on another weather forum talking of it mainly dying out now! The rain has arrived at least : ) something to help me go to sleep!!

Edited June 20, 2012 by Phelpsy

[AWD]

Think I'm going to call it a night now too! Sfercis are dying out over the channel and Ian F pretty adamant any T/L will be minimal if any at all for my location! Can see this being a good rain event but nothing else!

Good Luck all!

[Chris K]

Doesn't look that inspiring for my area any more to be honest....sferics just aren't getting across the channel. Knowing my luck the best activity further will be further E/NE after the main bulk has passed us tomorrow.

Don't think I'll bother stay up late for this. Maybe a thundery shower tomorrow?

[Eskimo]

Storms brewing over France and travelling northwards.

[Phelpsy]

Very heavy rain now

[Keraunic]

There looks to be some activity off Dorset.........I think.

[Nick F]

Sferics off Dorset coast just before midnight, though nothing since,there is an elevated warm/moist 'plume' advecting in across Sern areas overnight, which may continue to destabilise from the south as the trough bringing the line of precip edges slowly east. Storm forecast for Thursday:

http://www.netweathe...onvective;sess=

[Andy Pepler]

im posting from the field carpark @ stonehenge ...very heavy rain local flooding ...seen a few flashes a while ago ..to my south and it was distant ..people leaveing already..time for a beer

[Cheshire Freeze]

This rain barely looks heavy across many areas, let alone torrential. The heaviest of the rain looks to be around Dorset.

[ZONE 51]

GFS 18z - the unstable air-yellow over in France, now this is heading north, this chart is midnight,

by the afternoon this unstable air has arrived, so as the heavy rainband moves northeast then the moist plume mixes in with that, so expect some lightning/thunder to develop early morning, mostly to the east side, but then through the day we have thunderstorms breaking out, so it's going to get more intense i think as we head towards early morning and then the sunshine if it shows heating up and creating some big convection!

-

The reason why France has so far had all the action down south is because that is where the air is unstable as you can see on the first chart(and very unstable on second chart), and as it has not yet arrived here then this is why no storms yet! ok much more to it then that with the moist plume and stuff but il keep it simple!

Edited June 21, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[ZONE 51]

NAE 18z - 9pm thursday to 3am-friday-some intense downpours shown here, can't miss that clump to the east side there!