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Jane Louise

Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 20th June 2012>

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New thread here storm lovers! Wishing you all lots of luck from this evening onwards!drunk.gif

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New thread here storm lovers! Wishing you all lots of luck from this evening onwards!drunk.gif

U excited Jane?

Looks like we might actually be in for sometinge tonight / morning!

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Yep My thoughts to Lynxus, notice it's starting to more ne now on raintoday but only slightly

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just got home from working in stow-on-the-wold (gloucs)....lots of elevated convection to the south, with a sky full of Ac Cas.....lovely, i'll bank that!good.gif

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Evening all :-)

Getting excited now might just be our night !

Yep My thoughts to Lynxus, notice it's starting to more ne now on raintoday but only slightly

just got home from working in stow-on-the-wold (gloucs)....lots of elevated convection to the south, with a sky full of Ac Cas.....lovely, i'll bank that!good.gif

Oh yes.

The sky looks very "stormy"

The current PPN moving up seems to be almost perfect at the moment with Glos / btol etc.. pretty much in the centre of it all.

Plenty of flooding no doubt!

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Evening, well it is our turn for storms isn't it lol

Just hope it holds or better still intensifys :o

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Evening, well it is our turn for storms isn't it lol

Although the models as far as i can see , dont support much for us..

Who knows.

Still gonna be hit and miss i think.

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ah im so jealous guys ! I love scotland but god we never get a storm lol

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you lot in Glous send it my way after your done with it but don't use it all up!!!

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I hope everyone that wants a storm gets one! My 82 year old nan told me that she's going to sleep with the curtains open tonight in the hope that some lightning will wake her up as she loves a storm too bless her!

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I hope everyone that wants a storm gets one! My 82 year old nan told me that she's going to sleep with the curtains open tonight in the hope that some lightning will wake her up as she loves a storm too bless her!

Awe bless wub.png

No more thunder here but heavy, persistant rain

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Moderately heavy rain in Bristol now too!

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Going to be a interesting night! Who is going to get lucky? Netweather needs a booky, haha, What time is the best for anything thundery? Our isit just wait and see

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U excited Jane?

Looks like we might actually be in for sometinge tonight / morning!

I can't Wait lol. It sounds very promising.smile.png

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ppnstorm.png

Thundery Plume engages later tonight but more especially tomorrow afternoon and evening. Highly complex evolution and still some uncertainty on areas likely to see the best engagement. In terms of major CAPE (LI) zones and lightning the highest risk looks to be where VORTMAX and strong PVA overlaps during strongest SFC heating during Thu 12Z-18Z across Midlands, East Midlands and Northern England. Strongest frontal differential is projected later Thu PM across East Midlands, Midlands and Pennines running parts of North West with forced line convection likely. Refer to graphic below for following:

* Purple outline regions = SW Wales and N Wales (parts of NW England) model output suggests areas of excessive rainfall bias in these areas through the morning hours of Wed but also through Thu - likely through orographic enhancement across higher terrain on passing of cold front and warm theta-ew plume.

* Next blue region highlights show potential for thunderstorms embedded within the flow.

* Dotted blue hatch lined areas superimposed across highlighted blue regions indicate areas of strongest PVA overlap with CAPE good thunderstorm risk.

* Red line area is core zone of heaviest PPN potential and highest lightning risk. Although thick RED line indicates strongest frontal differential and CAPE integration and areas around E Midlands favoured for lightning potential and thunderstorms. Anywhere within the outlined areas could see lightning activity enhanced, especially to the East of the area.

​Good luck everybody! I dont't own this forecast!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Going to be a interesting night! Who is going to get lucky? Netweather needs a booky, haha, What time is the best for anything thundery? Our isit just wait and see

Midnight onwards I'd say guessing by the speed of rain movement in the NNE direction.

Pouring here now but there's a gap behind before the thundery part which is currently in the Channel.

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Can anyone say what time or if any action for surrey? wondering whether to stay up or get up early... fingers x'd.....

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I hope everyone that wants a storm gets one! My 82 year old nan told me that she's going to sleep with the curtains open tonight in the hope that some lightning will wake her up as she loves a storm too bless her!

Good luck, nan!good.gif

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If anyone has been following Ian on twitter, you will notice he now mentions of minimal lightning! The embedded Thunderstorms being very localised!

Going to be a nervy night! Lol!

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Good luck to all in the firing line! Hopefully my area will get in on the action tomorrow evening!

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ppnstorm.png

Thundery Plume engages later tonight but more especially tomorrow afternoon and evening. Highly complex evolution and still some uncertainty on areas likely to see the best engagement. In terms of major CAPE (LI) zones and lightning the highest risk looks to be where VORTMAX and strong PVA overlaps during strongest SFC heating during Thu 12Z-18Z across Midlands, East Midlands and Northern England. Strongest frontal differential is projected later Thu PM across East Midlands, Midlands and Pennines running parts of North West with forced line convection likely. Refer to graphic below for following:

* Purple outline regions = SW Wales and N Wales (parts of NW England) model output suggests areas of excessive rainfall bias in these areas through the morning hours of Wed but also through Thu - likely through orographic enhancement across higher terrain on passing of cold front and warm theta-ew plume.

* Next blue region highlights show potential for thunderstorms embedded within the flow.

* Dotted blue hatch lined areas superimposed across highlighted blue regions indicate areas of strongest PVA overlap with CAPE good thunderstorm risk.

* Red line area is core zone of heaviest PPN potential and highest lightning risk. Although thick RED line indicates strongest frontal differential and CAPE integration and areas around E Midlands favoured for lightning potential and thunderstorms. Anywhere within the outlined areas could see lightning activity enhanced, especially to the East of the area.

​Good luck everybody! I dont't own this forecast!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Sorry but i cant access that image, any advances on it please?

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Sorry but i cant access that image, any advances on it please?

me neither...

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me neither...

I took a screenshot for you guys;

7yT7F6.png

Lewis

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If this thundery plume edges slightly more east then Swindon might be in for a shout, fingers crossed.

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