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Somerset Squall

Hurricane Chris

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The extratropical low a few hundred miles south of Nova Scotia, at a lattitude of almost 40 degrees north has become Tropical Storm Chris, with intensity at 40kts. The storm is quite shallow in nature due to the fairly cool sea temps beneath it. Chris is not expected to strengthen or prosper really, as the storm will move eastwards over even colder waters. However, Chris' formation means this:

NLY TWICE BEFORE...IN 1887 AND 1959...HAS THE THIRD STORM OF THE

SEASON FORMED EARLIER THAN THIS DATE.

However, this is not significant to the future activity of the season. If all the storms had started of tropical then yes, but all the storms so far have formed from cold core high lattitude lows, and it's a stroke of luck really that they managed to become fully tropical (especially Chris).

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Very surprised they need this, phase diagrams are supportive but only just, 500 temps show a good cyclonic temp diffentiial though and evidence thesis tropical is scant indeed, given the sst's are only 20-22c I would expect a bit more evidence might be needed.....

Personally I see nothing but cut off sub tropical low with wrap around cloud added by the weak js to the south of the system.

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Tropical Storm Chris swirls far from land

Forecasters say Tropical Storm Chris is accelerating off the coast of Newfoundland in the Atlantic Ocean but poses no threat to land. The National Hurricane Center said late Tuesday that the storm had maximum sustained winds of 45 mph (75 kph) and was moving east at 13 mph (21 kph)

The high-altitude storm is some 565 miles (909 kilometers) south-southwest of Cape Race. No coastal watches or warnings have been issued. Forecasters say Chris is not expected to strengthen and will fizzle out by Wednesday night or Thursday.

http://www.wset.com/...s-far-from-land

GOES06452012172RD4J9j.jpg

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Is it going to Canada?

No, it's going to become extra-tropical in a day or so and briefly meander around in weak streering currents before being abosrbed by another Atlantic low. That low will then be picked up by the jet and move streadily north east.

Fair play, Chris is a beautiful looking TS though,,,

vis0.jpg

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Chris is looking more like a hurricane now with convection wrapped right around the centre and a distinct eye feature clearly visible.

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Yes and increased to 50knts / gusts 60knts impressive.

Then we have that area in Carribean which will track west before turning East over towards Florida in a few days. Then tracking to a point somewhere near Chris in location. Likely to deepen rapidly too. This is what im used to seeing in October / November with extratropical storms bringing wild weather towards UK. Like a normal year during the latter months, not all get to UK but both of these have potential to bring rain here. With Chris we are looking at blocking allowing it to get absorbed and track too far North but its not set in stone yet. The next system should be evident by end of weekend and then head North up NE coast of USA.

Interesting times

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certainly an intereresting system. The eye like feature is very prominent. Latest NHC discussion mentions it, however they keep the system at 50kt, a clear eye would give a dvorak of at least 70kts (hurricane), so even though they talk about winds struggling to reach the sea floor i don't think they think its an eye.

NHC also confirm ssts of 22C.

For me this falls into one of those hybrid systems and the recent eye like feature only confirms this more. A hurricane forming in little over 24hrs over ssts of 22C, without establishing a cdo would be highly unlikely going from what we know about them. This still seems to indicate barocyclonic forces at work, possibly added by a weak surface warm core.

It will be fun watching how this pans out though over the next few days.

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Now officially upgraded. Also this is a fairly rare case of a Hurricane in June, let alone one over these SSTs.

000

WTNT33 KNHC 211453

TCPAT3

BULLETIN

HURRICANE CHRIS ADVISORY NUMBER 8

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032012

1100 AM AST THU JUN 21 2012

...CHRIS BECOMES THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...41.1N 43.2W

ABOUT 625 MI...1005 KM SE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHRIS WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 41.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.2 WEST. CHRIS IS

MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD

THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE

NORTHWEST AND WEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. CHRIS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON

HURRICANE WIND SCALE. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS

AND CHRIS IS EXPECT TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ON FRIDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM

THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105

MILES...165 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

NONE

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$

FORECASTER ROBERTS

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Well I wasn't expecting Chris to become a hurricane! Looks pretty impressive currently. Intensity is 65kts. Another case of technically shouldn't of happened, but has.

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Just noticed how far north Chris actually is. What's the highest latitude a storm has become a Hurricane at in the Atlantic? I imagine Chris can't be far off the record.

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Just noticed how far north Chris actually is. What's the highest latitude a storm has become a Hurricane at in the Atlantic? I imagine Chris can't be far off the record.

Hurricane 2 of of 1971, became a hurricane at 46N.

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I think hurricane Faith (1966?) was one of the most interesting. Didn't it hit the Faroe Islands, still retaining its warm core characteristics, at hurricane strength - category 2? Unbelievable that one!

Edit, actually strong Cat 1

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I know a fair few hurricanes have maintained Hurricane intensity at very high latitudes, but i was more wondering about how many had actually attained hurricane status for the first time at a high latitude. I think Hurricane 2 is probably the record which was a fair bit further north than i thought.

We've had quite a lot of early storms this season, are there any seasons with analogues to this?

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I know a fair few hurricanes have maintained Hurricane intensity at very high latitudes, but i was more wondering about how many had actually attained hurricane status for the first time at a high latitude. I think Hurricane 2 is probably the record which was a fair bit further north than i thought.

We've had quite a lot of early storms this season, are there any seasons with analogues to this?

I guess Hurricane 2 must be close then. 46 degrees north is startling.

I don't know the record for the earliest date to get to the third storm of the season, but this season is quite impressive.

When I last looked ( unless I'm going mad! ) the NHC were predicting a low activity season this year too. Maybe they are anticipating an El Nino event?

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earliest hurricane since Allison in 1995

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Tropical Storm Chris strengthened in the North Atlantic off Newfoundland on Thursday, becoming the season's first Atlantic hurricane, forecasters at the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

Chris had top winds of 75 miles per hour (120 km per hour) and was about 625 miles southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland. It posed no threat to land, forecasters said. Chris formed unusually far north for an early season hurricane, and was expected to make a slow loop before weakening over cooler waters during the weekend.

Forecasters also kept watch on a low pressure area associated with a broad mass of thunderstorms in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and northwestern Caribbean. It had a 30 percent chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm in the next couple of days, the forecasters said. That system soaked southern Florida and could bring heavy rain and flooding to Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba, the forecasters said.

It was too early to know whether the system would threaten energy interests clustered in the northern Gulf of Mexico.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30, but got off to an early start this year. Tropical Storm Alberto quickly fizzled off South Carolina and Tropical Storm Beryl soaked the southeastern United States in May. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted there would be nine to 15 tropical storms in the Atlantic basin this year, with four to eight strengthening into hurricanes.

http://uk.reuters.co...E85K13K20120621

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Chris has certainly been an interesting one, I'm sure that NHC reanalysis will make Chris a hurricane about 12 - 24 earlier than they did. It's bizarre how a hurricane formed over 21-22C waters although I suspect the thermo-dynamic structure of the system must have played a part. It just goes to show that it is not beyond the realms of possibility for a hurricane / tropical storm to reach our shores!!

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