Winter Forecast! - He's At It Again...

[chionomaniac]

I'm not starting trouble.. but wasn't the QBO pretty much perfect for cold as we went into last winter? In fact, I seem to remember pretty much everyone talking about how all the factors were pointing to a cold winter.. Turned out to be almost snowless

No, if you read the first page of last years strat thread before winter started the exact positioning of the eQBO in the mid strat left a fair bit of uncertaintity.

In fact, disregarding the QBO for a moment, the extreme cooling of the stratosphere during the autumn left the early winter forecast more predictable and it was amazing how some of the forecasters mentioned in this thread simply ignored that fact.

I remember stating time and time again that until stratospheric conditions changed how unlikely HLB's would be leading to prolonged cold. The Siberian block only migrated westwards once the stratospheric conditions changed - and even this struggled due to poor propagative conditions.

Edited July 10, 2012 by chionomaniac

[summer blizzard]

I'm not starting trouble.. but wasn't the QBO pretty much perfect for cold as we went into last winter? In fact, I seem to remember pretty much everyone talking about how all the factors were pointing to a cold winter.. Turned out to be almost snowless

As Chiomaniac says the QBO only became negative in November and as a result the stratospheric warming did not come until January.

[greybing]

I do find the school yard flavour of this ttread rather dis-tasteful.

[greybing]

Whilst i dont really rate Madden, the fact that he is ameteur does not make him poor, its his lack of reasoning or using the same reasoning that has previously failed and as far as i am aware, chionomaniac is not a pro but his knowledge of teleconnections and particularly the stratosphere is absolutely suberb, having said that i could fully understand if someone had developed a succesfull method for seasonal forecasting that they might not want to release their methods straight away for fear of people stealing their work when they could end up making money in the long run. If i was to write a seasonal forecast 4 times a year on the Netweather forum for the next 5 years and have a strike rate of pure chance or just better than pure chance and not give reasoning i would not expect to be taken seriously, however if i was to outperform all the experts consistently over a period of time then i would expect some respect, whether i reveal my methodology or not so in some circumstances the ends is king and not the means.

I couldn't agree more.

[Methuselah]

I do find the school yard flavour of this ttread rather dis-tasteful.

Please explain?

[bobbydog]

Whilst i dont really rate Madden, the fact that he is ameteur does not make him poor, its his lack of reasoning or using the same reasoning that has previously failed and as far as i am aware, chionomaniac is not a pro but his knowledge of teleconnections and particularly the stratosphere is absolutely suberb, having said that i could fully understand if someone had developed a succesfull method for seasonal forecasting that they might not want to release their methods straight away for fear of people stealing their work when they could end up making money in the long run. If i was to write a seasonal forecast 4 times a year on the Netweather forum for the next 5 years and have a strike rate of pure chance or just better than pure chance and not give reasoning i would not expect to be taken seriously, however if i was to outperform all the experts consistently over a period of time then i would expect some respect, whether i reveal my methodology or not so in some circumstances the ends is king and not the means.

i should point out that i wasn't implying that an amateur is any less able to produce an accurate forecast than a professional. i was merely pointing out that GP produces weather forecasts for a living, whereas Madden does not. professionals are perfectly capable of getting it wrong- as both Netweather and the MetO have proven in recent years, but neither have arrogantly claimed that their forecasts will be right. most of us know that forecasting is not an exact science. i think a good analogy is, it's like predicting a horse race. the outcome can be forecast using the 'form' of the horses in previous races, their fitness, ground conditions, jockey, etc. from this information, a favourite to win is predicted. but the favourite doesn't always win

[Methuselah]

i should point out that i wasn't implying that an amateur is any less able to produce an accurate forecast than a professional. i was merely pointing out that GP produces weather forecasts for a living, whereas Madden does not. professionals are perfectly capable of getting it wrong- as both Netweather and the MetO have proven in recent years, but neither have arrogantly claimed that their forecasts will be right. most of us know that forecasting is not an exact science. i think a good analogy is, it's like predicting a horse race. the outcome can be forecast using the 'form' of the horses in previous races, their fitness, ground conditions, jockey, etc. from this information, a favourite to win is predicted. but the favourite doesn't always win

Aye, BB. Neither do they 'retrofit' their forecasts, after they've gone wrong, so as to make them appear better than they are...as some seem wont to do.

[Nick L]

Aye, BB. Neither do they 'retrofit' their forecasts, after they've gone wrong, so as to make them appear better than they are...as some seem wont to do.

I don't think the Met Office are entirely innocent of that. I remember a checklist they published after the Dec 2010 freeze which was stretching the truth to say the least!

[snowmadchrisuk]

My thoughts are with ElNino making a comeback , the effect of this are obvious with the amount of upper level lows in the tropical Atlantic , We will have a Snowier Winter than last year , I would say last Winter was unusually Mild overall, with t-shirt weather some days. I would think it would be very hard to beat Dec 2010 , Even harder in the SW . But something like 09/10 Winter would seem a good bet , which was still a good year for Snow in many parts including the Midlands.

[Snowmadsam]

My thoughts are with ElNino making a comeback , the effect of this are obvious with the amount of upper level lows in the tropical Atlantic , We will have a Snowier Winter than last year , I would say last Winter was unusually Mild overall, with t-shirt weather some days. I would think it would be very hard to beat Dec 2010 , Even harder in the SW . But something like 09/10 Winter would seem a good bet , which was still a good year for Snow in many parts including the Midlands.

and South West Wales!

[greybing]

I couldn't agree more.

i was high

nic.l ......................my explanation is that i was high,on love.No really i was just high.Please ,community ,forgive this mis demeanor.

Edited July 22, 2012 by greybing

[snowfluff]

Aye, BB. Neither do they 'retrofit' their forecasts, after they've gone wrong, so as to make them appear better than they are...as some seem wont to do.

Really?Have a look at Net Weathers summer forecast, which has been updated, had a retrofit if you like.

It has gone from , issued june 1 " ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS,AND BELOW AVERAGE RAINFALL, to,in the update,retrofit to, BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS AND ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL.

[feb1991blizzard]

My thoughts are with ElNino making a comeback , the effect of this are obvious with the amount of upper level lows in the tropical Atlantic , We will have a Snowier Winter than last year , I would say last Winter was unusually Mild overall, with t-shirt weather some days. I would think it would be very hard to beat Dec 2010 , Even harder in the SW . But something like 09/10 Winter would seem a good bet , which was still a good year for Snow in many parts including the Midlands.

Agreed Chris, for me the 09 / 10 winter was the best of the recent winters since the 80s style southerly tracking jet winter made a comeback, even in Salford it was a stonker but by all accounts in this neck of the woods it rivalled the very best of them, what i liked was its consistency, even feb was not as bad as people made out, not as much snow as Jan and Dec but still good and it always kept you tantalised, non of them hopeless Bartlett driven spells where snow was completely off the menu.

[rob48]

Really?Have a look at Net Weathers summer forecast, which has been updated, had a retrofit if you like.

It has gone from , issued june 1 " ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS,AND BELOW AVERAGE RAINFALL, to,in the update,retrofit to, BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS AND ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL.

Agreed.

The last few have ended up like Trigger's broom.

[stewfox]

Really?Have a look at Net Weathers summer forecast, which has been updated, had a retrofit if you like.

It has gone from , issued june 1 " ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS,AND BELOW AVERAGE RAINFALL, to,in the update,retrofit to, BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS AND ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL.

To be fair wouldn't it be boring if long range forecasts were remotely accurate.

I think the ridicule these off the peg forecasters get is generally founded in the fact they don't provide 'data' to 'support' their argument.

I would be more interested in accuracy rates on forecasts rather then 'supporting data' , long range forecasts are like horoscopes a bit of fun but dont take them serioulsy. The 'data' to 'support' long range forecasts doesn't usually add up.

[Gavin P]

Still deem Piers and James as biased as ever, the sites to me that are unbiased are the BCC and the CFS. To be honest there are unbiased members on TWO such as Gavin P who is also on here, GIBBY, Gusty, Steam Fog, Stormchaser and nickl. All whom I have in high regard and the don at this years Summer Forecast Matt Hugo too. To be fair I would love it if GIBBY could sign up here as his views pretty much verify all of the time really.

Hey thanks, thats very nice of you.

Let's here it for amateurs, hey?

[Methuselah]

Really?Have a look at Net Weathers summer forecast, which has been updated, had a retrofit if you like.

It has gone from , issued june 1 " ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS,AND BELOW AVERAGE RAINFALL, to,in the update,retrofit to, BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS AND ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL.

But, with one added component: a frank admission that the original was incorrect. Rather than childishly attempting to claim that it was really all along, just a few days/weeks out...

[mcweather]

Really?Have a look at Net Weathers summer forecast, which has been updated, had a retrofit if you like.

It has gone from , issued june 1 " ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS,AND BELOW AVERAGE RAINFALL, to,in the update,retrofit to, BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS AND ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL.

Sorry snowfluff but you're wrong the forecast has not been retrofitted. Its an admission that the forecast has gone wrong and the reasons why. unlike the others who claim that their forecasts are right but just 6 weeks out or went off track due to a filament on the sun ( remember last decembers debacles from Weatheraction)

[MissGrace]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-17143269

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

http://www.bbc.co.uk...onment-17143269

This year, I think all the factors are in place for a cold one this year/2013. If there is a strong jet to the South of us and a big Scandinavian high in place, then we can look forward to some deep falls of snow I think. Low pressure systems in the Arctic circle would promote a nice big high pressure system over Siberia and Scandinavia too. We just need it to all add up at the right time, hopefully at christmas and all of January!

[cheeky_monkey]

This year, I think all the factors are in place for a cold one this year/2013. If there is a strong jet to the South of us and a big Scandinavian high in place, then we can look forward to some deep falls of snow I think. Low pressure systems in the Arctic circle would promote a nice big high pressure system over Siberia and Scandinavia too. We just need it to all add up at the right time, hopefully at christmas and all of January!

What factors are they?

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

What factors are they?

Warm seas in the arctic circle(obviously not 'warm', but warmer than usual) which will help the development of the siberian and possibly a scandinavian high to develop early, as the warmer than normal seas will help spin up lows. Warm Atlantic South of spain (El-nino being reflected by warmer than average sea temps off the coast of Portugal and the Azores),helping to fuel big low pressure systems (i.e cold Polar air overriding the warm sea temps to cause instability) to keep the jet influenced and confined to S Europe. I'm not an expert, but surely these are factors which would favour a cold winter?

Edited September 7, 2012 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[Dawson1701]

Okay, firstly, there is a phenomenon arriving in the UK and Northern Europe soon called Maunder Minimum but it's unknown when this will arrive, hence James Madden's mistakes in his predictions. The last time we had a cold winter which was Winter 10/11 was caused by a warmer Arctic and increased melting which caused a high pressure system to drag cold air down from the Arctic across Russia and Scandinavia which therefore caused the High pressure to sit over Norway as a blocking high. So as I have just mentioned, these cold winters are usually caused by the Ice pack in the Arctic. We have just witnessed recently that the Arctic has had its lowest surface area of ice in the summer ever, this suggests that maybe the winter for this year will be colder than usual.

Also, relating back to Maunder Minimum, we are seeing a decrease in solar activity which is going to cause colder weather anyway, but, it's causing the sun to have 4 poles instead of two, which is similar to that of the period from 1640 to 1710, where the Thames river froze over!

So, in some respects I believe James Madden has a good forecast this year, he's predicted the summer well indeed. But I have spoken to Hannah Bayman from Look North recently on the phone and she also says that there is a period recently where we have had unusual weather, and we don't quite understand what might happen this winter due to the solar cycle being later than usual.

[WestCountry11]

i have already started to look at the predicted Winter forecasts for 2012-13.

Edited September 8, 2012 by WestCountry11

[Relativistic]

The Thames will never freeze over again properly because a bridge that was in place which slowed down the flow of the river is no longer there. It may have frozen over a bit in December 2010 if this was still the case.