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Konstantinos

Invest 95E, Northeast Pacific.

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80% Chance of Tropical Hurricane Formation the next 48 hours:

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

500 AM PDT TUE JUN 19 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW

PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO

MEXICO CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS

REMAIN MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND ONLY A SMALL

INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A

HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING

THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD. INTERESTS ALONG THE

SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS

SYSTEM. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE

THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS

OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER PASCH

NNNN

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_epac.shtml

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=eastpac&sname=95E&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000000&loop=0

ep201295_model.gif

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GOES120020121712dbdss.jpg

Invest 95E

This one is in the Eastern Pacific and has currently has the highest chance of development. It is bringing life-threatening flash floods and mudslides to SW Mexico--an area that does not need all the rain, especially after Carlotta's passing by the end of last week. 95E has a very strong chance of becoming a TD/TS as it passes right offshore the Mexican coastline--a 60% chance of TC formation within' the next 48 hours so everyone along the Pacific Coast of Mexico should monitor this area of interest, mostly for its flood threat.

http://www.wundergro...ml?entrynum=221

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Down to 60% now. SHIPS model doesn't seem keen on this one. It appears some shear is affecting it as the LLC is exposed north of the convection currently.

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2012_PZ_95_z1_models.jpg

Last advisory update: 2:00 AM EDT, Wed Jun 20 2012

Lat: 17.5 N Long: 107.6 W

Winds: 29 mph (25 knots)

Pressure: 29.68 inches (1005 mb)

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