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cornishbrooksy

Tropical Storm Talim

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Invest 92W has formed east of Hainan Island.

WTPQ21 RJTD 161800

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TD

ANALYSIS

PSTN 161800UTC 19.3N 111.9E POOR

MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY

PRES 998HPA

MXWD 030KT

GUST 045KT

FORECAST

24HF 171800UTC 19.7N 112.5E 120NM 70%

MOVE NE SLOWLY

PRES 994HPA

MXWD 035KT

GUST 050KT =

Some already say it is a TD, but JTWC still say medium chance.

GFS models have is passing very close to Hong Kong on in 96 hours, reaching Tropical Storm strength.

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At 11am HKT, HKO upgraded this to a tropical depression.

"The Tropical Depression over the seas to the east of Hainan Island is expected to be slow-moving at first. It will maintain a distance from Hong Kong and may not pose direct threat to Hong Kong in short term. In case the Tropical Depression shows signs of further intensification or moving closer to Hong Kong, the Observatory will consider issuing the Standby Signal No.1. Members of the public should pay close attention to the latest weather information from the Observatory.

Issued at 11:07 HKT 17/Jun/2012"

As said before, models have this upto TS strength, and moving across the south of HK, so i expect a T1 signal to be issued within the next 24 hours.

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JTWC have now upgraded to Tropical Depression 06W, with intensity now at 30kts. 06W is located just southeast of Hainan Island and is very slow moving at present, due to a distinct lack of steering force. A ridge is expected to build westwards from Luzon into the South China Sea which should force 06W northeastwards, south of Hong Kong, towards Taiwan. The depression has some deep convection currently over the LLC, with formative banding to the south, so the depression looks close to becoming a tropical storm. Conditions are favourable for 06W to become a strong tropical storm or even a low end typhoon as shear is moderate but outflow is becoming more robust with time. Waters are very warm until the depression tracks into the Taiwan strait, where they shelve off. Once 06W clears Taiwan, it should become extratropical. Southeastern China and Taiwan need to watch this system.

post-1820-0-90458000-1339967744_thumb.jp

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3rd storm to enter Philippines Wednesday

MANILA, Philippines - The third tropical storm may enter the Philippines by Wednesday afternoon, a government weather forecaster said Monday morning.

Manny Mendoza, weather forecaster at the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), said that the incoming storm was spotted at 880 kilometers west of extreme Northern Luzon. Mendoza said that the storm, which is already packing maximum sustained winds of 75 kilometers per hour, may enter the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR) by Wednesday afternoon.

The storm will be named "Carina" if it enters the PAR.

Mendoza said that if the storm changes direction from west to east, it may directly affect parts of extreme Northern Luzon. He also said that the storm may intensify into a typhoon. Meanwhile, PAGASA said that typhoon "Butchoy" has slightly weakened as it continued to move away from the Philippines. It said that as of 10 a.m., the typhoon's center was estimated at 580 kilometers east northeast of Basco town in Batanes province. The typhoon slightly weakened with maximum winds of 160 kilometers per hour and gusts of up to 195 kph. It was moving north northeast at 24 kph.

PAGASA said that the storm will exit the Philippine area of responsibility and move towards Okinawa, Japan by Tuesday morning.

The weather bureau said that Butchoy will continue to enhance the southwest monsoon and will bring rains over Luzon and Western Visayas, which may trigger landslides and flashfloods. "Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the seaboards of Luzon and Visayas due to the big waves generated by the combined effects of Typhoon "Butchoy" and the Southwest Monsoon.," PAGASA said.

http://www.philstar.com/nation/article.aspx?publicationsubcategoryid=63&articleid=818520

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Talim has inched eastwards and strengthened to 45kts. The LLC is well defined with some deep convective banding flanking it. As Coast's article says above, Talim has a shot at becoming a typhoon before reaching Taiwan. As Konstantinos' track map shows, Talim is soon expected track faster to the northeast as ridging builds more strongly south and east of the storm.

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A tropical storm approaching the Philippines from the west is likely to stay in Philippine territory for only six to 12 hours, state weather forecasters said Tuesday.

But the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration also said the storm, codenamed "Talim," is enhancing the southwest monsoon even now. "Maaaring six to 12 hours lang, lalabas na yan," PAGASA forecaster Jori Loiz said in an interview on dzBB radio.

The storm will be locally codenamed "Carina" upon entering Philippine territory. PAGASA had estimated the storm is due to enter Philippine territory on Wednesday. Loiz said they expect Talim to pass the Philippines' northwest boundary and head for Taiwan. On the other hand, he said Talim may be affecting parts of Northern and Central Luzon by enhancing the southwest monsoon even now. But Loiz said Talim is not likely to directly affect the country.

For Wednesday, Loiz said Metro Manila can expect mostly cloudy skies with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Taiwan, Hong Kong brace for 'Talim' Taiwan and Hong Kong are also bracing for Talim. A report on Taipei Times early Tuesday said Talim is a rare storm coming from Taiwan Strait, which is part of the South China Sea. Land and sea alerts were expected to be issued Tuesday, the report added. It quoted the Central Weather Bureau as saying that Talim is likely to be the first storm to hit Taiwan this year and may bring heavy rainfall across Taiwan.

Taipei Times quoted Taiwanese forecaster Hsieh Min-ken as saying the weather bureau estimated the accumulated rainfall from Tuesday to Thursday could exceed 1,500 mm in the mountainous areas of central and southern Taiwan because of the combined effect of Talim and the southwest monsoon.

Hsieh said Taiwan "must be prepared to brave torrential rain," adding residents in central and southern Taiwan must be ready to cope with the threat of torrential rain. Also, the bureau said those living on the west coast need to be prepared for flooding caused by the rain and spring tide. Taipei Times said the bureau projected Talim to cross the Taiwan Strait and be close to central Taiwan by Wednesday, when the wind and rain are expected to be the strongest. "Talim" is then expected to move along Taiwan's west coast before it moves away from Taiwan by Thursday. Taiwan's weather bureau also said the weather system around Taiwan would remain unstable until Friday.

Hong Kong

In Hong Kong, the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) said Strong Wind Signal, No. 3, is in force. "This means that winds with mean speeds of 41 to 62 kph are expected," it said. Radio Television Hong Kong said HKO issued the strong wind signal at 10:40 p.m. Monday as Talim moved closer to the Chinese territory. "The No. 3 signal means kindergartens and schools for children with disabilities won't be open (Tuesday) morning. Afternoon classes at kindergartens will only take place if the signal is cancelled by 10.30 a.m.," it said.

It added the Social Welfare Department advised people not to take family members to child care centers, elderly services centers or day rehabilitation units, including sheltered workshops and day activity centers. But it said such centers will remain open for people who cannot find alternative care. As of 6 a.m., the HKO said Talim - which it considered a severe tropical storm - was estimated to be about 320 km south of Hong Kong. It said Talim is forecast to move northeast or east-northeast at about 14 kph crossing the northern part of the South China Sea

http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/story/262405/news/nation/pagasa-approaching-storm-to-stay-in-phl-only-6-12-hours

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Strong northerly shear has prevented Talim from strengthening much today. Sustained winds have increased slightly to 50kts. The storm looks lop sided with the majority of convection south of the LLC. With no let up in shear expected, Talim may not get any stronger before moving through the Taiwan strait. Land interaction, coupled with the shear will weaken Talim before it emerges to the northeast of Taiwan. A warm pool of water and reducing shear at this stage may allow some brief re-intensification before landfall in Japan, though this is uncertain.

wp0612.gif

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Just some observations from HK. T3 strong wind signal was raised on Monday evening, although apart from in a couple of really exposed places, windspeeds never got above a light breeze. The T3 signal was lowered Tuesday morning at 10am, and a few hours later the T1 signal was dropped completely.

Looked like it had a good chance, but from the appearence there was not much of the storm to the north of the circulation, and left us with a mildly breezy and sunny day.

Only good thing is that today has left us with very hot weather....beautiful!

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Tropical storm Talim is forecast to strike China at about 09:00 GMT on 20 June.

201206W_06200214.png

Tropical storm Talim is forecast to strike China at about 09:00 GMT on 20 June. Data supplied by the US Navy and Air Force Joint Typhoon Warning Center suggest that the point of landfall will be near 24.7 N,120.3 E.Talim is expected to bring 1-minute maximum sustained winds to the region of around 83 km/h (51 mph).Wind gusts in the area maybe considerably higher.

The information above is provided for guidance only and should not be used to make life or death decisions or decisions relating to property. Anyone in the region who is concerned for their personal safety or property should contact their official national weather agency or warning centre for advice. This alert is provided by TropicalStorm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance,Crawford & Company and University College London (UCL). TSR acknowledges thesupport of the UK Met Office.

http://www.trust.org...-gmt-on-20-june

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Update:

Tropical storm Talim is forecast to strike Japan at about 16:00 GMT on 21 June.

201206W_06200746.png

Tropical storm Talim is forecast to strike Japan at about 16:00 GMT on 21 June.Data supplied by theUS Navy and Air Force Joint Typhoon Warning Center suggest that the point of land fall will be near 31.2 N,129.7 E. Talim is expected to bring 1-minute maximum sustained winds to the region of around 83 km/h (51 mph).Wind gusts in the area may be considerably higher.

The information above is provided for guidance only and should not be used to make life or death decisions or decisions relating to property. Anyone in the region who is concerned for their personal safety or property should contact their official national weather agency or warning centre for advice. This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by Benfield, Royal & Sun Alliance,Crawford & Company and University College London (UCL). TSR acknowledges thesupport of the UK Met Office.

http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/tropical-storm-talim-is-forecast-to-strike-japan-at-about-1600-gmt-on-21-june/

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Strong shear continued to plague Talim and has now killed the storm long before it reached Japan. Its remnants are currently moving along the spine of Japan, but winds are light and rain scattered.

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