Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Pollen

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Ed Stone

The Coldest May For 100 Years: What Went Wrong?

Recommended Posts

WeatherAction’s long range May forecast well captured the main very cold N/W and very warm/heatwave E/SE contrast which Piers Corbyn warned of mid-April and which a gaggle of churlish standard Meteorologists derided.

They went eerily quiet for three weeks as their short-range forecasts failed again and again while Piers’ single long range forecast stunned thousands.

no comment

its a touch churlish but where is a copy of what the actual May forecast said please?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I didn't notice any short-range forecasts failing again and again, actually even the long-range forecasts posted on here were quite accurate as far as they go ... more accurate than to say it would be the coldest May in a hundred years, anyway.

The part about the Sun's gravitational field is likely a misquote, I would imagine there was some discussion of a different outcome for magnetic fields or something along those lines. Gravitational fields do not change unexpectedly and in any case have little to do with the question, but research in the field is quite active as far as solar system magnetic fields, I am aware of several independent efforts in that area, including my own.

The word stunned seems appropriate somehow, although I would use it differently.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

WeatherAction’s long range May forecast well captured the main very cold N/W and very warm/heatwave E/SE contrast which Piers Corbyn warned of mid-April and which a gaggle of churlish standard Meteorologists derided.

They went eerily quiet for three weeks as their short-range forecasts failed again and again while Piers’ single long range forecast stunned thousands.

no comment

its a touch churlish but where is a copy of what the actual May forecast said please?

I think the original thread got lost somewhere, John. I think it was in there, somewhere...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I didn't notice any short-range forecasts failing again and again, actually even the long-range forecasts posted on here were quite accurate as far as they go ... more accurate than to say it would be the coldest May in a hundred years, anyway.

The part about the Sun's gravitational field is likely a misquote, I would imagine there was some discussion of a different outcome for magnetic fields or something along those lines. Gravitational fields do not change unexpectedly and in any case have little to do with the question, but research in the field is quite active as far as solar system magnetic fields, I am aware of several independent efforts in that area, including my own.

The word stunned seems appropriate somehow, although I would use it differently.

Aye Roger. It's the snipes aimed at other would-be forecasters that get my goat, more than his being wrong. We all get things wrong...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well - apparently - something altered the Sun's gravitational field:

http://climaterealis...dex.php?id=9649

rofl.gif Unless the sun's mass dramatically changes it's gravitational field won't change! (and if it did, our orbit would probably be adversely effected throwing us into a far more elliptical orbit meaning we would sometimes boil and sometimes freeze, never mind we might get his coldest may for 100 years then!)

Or maybe Nibiru did it whistling.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

found at least part of the relevant quote

To me I see no mention of the very warm end which somewhere else he or an associate say was made.

Again to me the prediction appears wrong, that is taking his prediction of temperature levels.

No doubt he will claim it is correct.

As others have commented I can accept his attempts to make his forecasts appear successful when in reality they are not but I do so detest his knocking other organisations. If he reads this please accept that it does make you seem unreasonable-stand by your forecast, accept when its wrong and say 'nowt when its right. You soon find folk will both accept and respect you.

Piers Corbyn astrophysicist of WeatherAction.com says "We are making this headline from our 45day ahead Britain & Ireland forecast public because of its importance. It is an economically impactful forecast and more detail of the timing of cold and wintry blasts, East-West splits and drought or not implications are available to subscribers and will also be reviewed for the 30day ahead forecast due at end of April.

"The very cold expectations apply to East parts and near – Europe rather than Ireland and West Britainâ€

May 2012 Headline summary & essential weather type development.

The coldest or near coldest May for 100 years in Central and East parts with a record run of bitter Northerly winds. Snow at times especially on high ground in NE / East. Spring put in reverse.

*Confidence of E / SE England mean temps: Coldest in 100yrs 80%; In 5 coldest in 100yrs 90%

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looking back at the Model/Tech threads for April, quite a few posters saying a cold May, but then it all changed by the end of April with warmer weather in the outlook rather then the cold month first thought.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Its not a direct comparison but gives some idea; the CET data back to 1912 makes it the 64th coldest, or if you like it another way the 46th warmest in 100 years!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What amuses me is that people pay for his forecasts. Apart from the odd hit by pure chance which we all can do it's very hard to find any defense for the outrageous claims.

Out of interest if we didn't have the warm spell where would it have finished up in the CET range.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The general forecast was not that far out when you consider it was only the last week being very warm which pulled the month back to near average.

The six or seven weeks from early April to 3rd week May was one of the worst springtime periods for many years (i.e. cold and wet)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

But his forecast, in particular his headlines, was clearly wrong; his claims of being able to accurately make forecasts from months' out are, therefore not justified? So the question remains: why are so many folks bamboozled into paying-out hard-earned cash for them??

Could it be because he wastes so much time berating the likes of the MetO, and trying to present himself as the 'sceptics' sceptic', when it comes to GHG emissions etc.? Maybe some peeps just like to hear only what they want to hear so much that they'll merrily fork-out a fortune, for the privilege?

Who knows?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

After he got May so wrong, Piers updated his techniques from SLAPint'Face7 to SLAPint'Face8. Unfortunately, SLAPint'Face8 immediately proved to be wrong since it forecast warm, dry weather in June. Therefore his fans were advised to use SLAPint'Face7 for thise period but assured that SLAPint'Face8 would be correct for later in June.

In other words: here are 2 different forecasts, mix and match to make one correct one (but only after the event). Apparently is okay though becaue the MetO issued new forecasts every single day!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Even with the last 10 days of May being very warm, the 20 days or so before that wasn't remarkably cold and to come out with headlines like that is just naive or wanting himself again to be in the limelight? I certainly wouldn't pay for his forecasts. I've been more accurate than him with just general hunches based trends and looking at past records.

Very good Essanrofl.gif the bloke is a joke!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

WeatherAction’s long range May forecast well captured the main very cold N/W and very warm/heatwave E/SE contrast which Piers Corbyn warned of mid-April and which a gaggle of churlish standard Meteorologists derided.

But Piers specifically forecast a cold north and east. And also complained when the Daily Mail mentioned the wind would be predominantlu northwesterly because he had said it would be northeasterly (of course, the wind was, in fact, predominantly northwesterly .... )

Also worth remembering that one person did forecast a change to warmer drier weather for the second half of May, in contrast to Piers' forecast, though admittedly it arrived a few days later than he expected and made up for the delay by being somewhat warmer than he expected :)

So, who got May more right? Piers or me?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Out of interest I removed the hot spell towards the end of may and that gave an average of 8.6C which would have been the coldest we recorded. We're just outside the CET zone. So lets say 9C in the CET zone which would have brought it close enough to 1996.

Doesn't matter he was wrong regardless but if the sun hadn't changed he may have closer but still wrong.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

But I was even more right. So what's your point? :p

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well here's my June prediction

June is looking like it will start on a cool note with showers and possible longer periods of rain moving up from the South. The unsettled cool to average temperature looks like continuing until mid month before the possibility of brief warmer spells. These look to brief before cooler northerly winds push south again ending the month on a unsettled note. Temperatures are looking to be around average to just below with above average rainfall.

Lets watch that go T??s up.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

But I was even more right. So what's your point? blum.gif

yes you were Essan but I would advise you to note my comment above

When you get it right say 'nowt, when you get it wrong own up immediately.

You can be sure it will not take your customer(s) long to suss you out and react accordingly

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

But I thought when you were right you had to tell eveyone that not only were you right, but that everyone else was wrong. And when you are wrong you just tell everyone you were right ...... biggrin.png:D :D

Edt: thinking about it, I got winter more right than Piers as well. This forecasting lark is easy peasy!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

But you should learn from Piers: as well a chopping-up the month according to whichever criteria are most expedient. Then, and only then, once any inconvenient data have been removed from the set, are you allowed to proceed with an all-out attack on all those incompetents who dare to tread on your turf. Capische?laugh.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The coldest May for 100 years was obviously way off the mark, however there was significant snowfall at over high ground in the northeast with the Cairngorm ski resort able to reopen and have some of the best conditions of the entire season.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The coldest May for 100 years was obviously way off the mark, however there was significant snowfall at over high ground in the northeast with the Cairngorm ski resort able to reopen and have some of the best conditions of the entire season.

There is nearly always some significant snowfall in the scottish hills in May.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×