Hurricane Carlotta

[Somerset Squall]

The third storm of the East Pacific season, Carlotta, has formed on the far east of the basin. Carlotta's intensity is 40kts. The environment ahead for Carlotta is favourable, with low shear and sea temps of around 30C. Carlotta is expected to head northwestwards towards the coast of Mexico and possibly make a landfall before ridging builds to the north of Carlotta, sending the storm to the west back over water. Carlotta is expected to become a hurricane, and as the storm is small there is an increased chance of rapid intensification. Therefore, Mexico need to be very weary of Carlotta.

[Coast]

Tropical Storm Carlotta has formed in the Pacific south of Mexico and is expected to become a hurricane.

Carlotta's maximum sustained winds early Thursday are near 65 kilometres per hour. The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami says additional strengthening is forecast and Carlotta is expected to become a hurricane by the time it reaches Mexico's southern coast on Friday. A hurricane watch is in effect for Mexico's Pacific coast from Barra de Tonala to Punta Maldonado.

The tropical storm is centred about 695 kilometres south-southeast of Puerto Angel, Mexico, and 1,025 kilometres southeast of Acapulco, Mexico. The storm is moving northwest near 17 km-h. Tropical storm-force winds are extending outward up to 75 kilometres.

Tropical Storm Carlotta formed early today off Mexico’s southwest coast and may grow into a hurricane within a day, the National Hurricane Center said in a 2 a.m. Pacific time advisory. The storm is about 430 miles (695 kilometers) south-southeast of the Mexican beach resort of Puerto Angel, moving northwest at 10 miles per hour.

http://www.bloomberg...-of-mexico.html

[Konstantinos]

Watching the future path of the tropical storm, I wonder how likely it is to change Carlotta Ocean. Pacific ---> Atlantic. Do we have similar phenomenon in records?

[Somerset Squall]

Not very likely. With ridging forecast to build to the north, Carlotta is expected to push northwest then west, keeping it in the East Pacific. Basin crossing storms are rare and have more commonly occured from the Atlantic into the Pacific and not the other way around. It does happen however, and the last system to do this was Tropical Depression 11E which formed in the East Pacific and crossed into the Atlantic and became Tropical Storm Hermine

Looking at Carlotta, I think an eye may be forming unless my eyes are deceiving me. Carlotta could become a hurricane sooner than forecast:

[Konstantinos]

Thanks Somerset Squall for the information about everything.

[Somerset Squall]

No worries Konstantinos

Carlotta is approaching hurricane intensity, with sustained winds of 60kts this morning. A central dense overcast has formed and remains flanked by tight banding. Carlotta is expected to become a hurricane later today as it approaches the coast of Mexico.

[Coast]

Tropical Storm Carlotta strengthened off Mexico's Pacific coast on Thursday and was expected to become a hurricane on Friday, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

Carlotta, the third named storm of the Pacific hurricane season, is set to graze the coastline south of tourist city Acapulco and pass north of Mexico's largest oil refinery.State oil company Pemex said it was monitoring the storm and the 330,000 barrel-per-day refinery was operating normally on Thursday.

Carlotta's path is far from the Baja California resort of Los Cabos where world leaders are set convene for the Group of 20 leaders of top economies on Monday and Tuesday. With maximum sustained winds of almost 65 mph, Carlotta was 460 miles southeast of Acapulco and moving northwest at 10 mph, the Miami-based hurricane center said.The Mexican government issued a hurricane watch from east of Salina Cruz to Barra de Tonala, and west of Punta Maldonado to Acapulco.

The storm could dump up to 12 inches of rain in the affected areas and cause dangerous storm surges, the hurricane center said. "These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides," it said. Authorities in the Baja California peninsula preparing for the G20 summit said the airport in Los Cabos, expecting an influx of delegations from around the world, was still open.

"We are following developments, but at the moment there is no alert," said Salvador Banaga, head of Los Cabos' emergency services. "We are expecting the biggest impact to be in the southeast part of the country. Up here, it won't be that bad."

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/06/15/us-storm-carlotta-idUKBRE85D17R20120615

[lorenzo]

Carlotta now Hurricane.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones/

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html

[lorenzo]

Credit to NOAA Environmental Visualisation Lab online with this image..

[Somerset Squall]

Yep, Carlotta is now a hurricane. An interesting but pointless little fact is that the name Carlotta has been used 10 times for an East Pacific tropical cyclone and and has made hurricane status 9 times.

Intensity is up to 75kts currently, and this intensity has been derived from aircraft recon data. I think Carlotta has a shot at becoming a major hurricane (cat 3) before the mountains of Mexico begin to weaken Carlotta. The eye is certainly becoming much better defined by the hour and although Carlotta is not far away from land, I don't think the current bout of quick intensification has finished.

Carlotta is still expected to graze the coast as ridging to the north sends Carlotta westwards, just as it reaches the coast. If Carlotta moves further to the north than currently anticipated, then it may dissipate. However, the current forecast is for Carlotta to head west in response to the building ridge over Mexico, then stall near the coast as the ridge collapses again and leaves Carlotta in a weak steering flow. This stalling may make the potential flooding situation a lot worse.

[Somerset Squall]

Carlotta has attained cat 2 status with sustained winds rising to 90kts. Carlotta has about another 12hrs in which to strengthen before the circulation begins to feel the negative effects of interaction with the mountains of Mexico.

[Somerset Squall]

Carlotta is now weakening inland after peaking at 90kts. As Carlotta has moved further inland than expected, dissipation may occur very soon over the mountains of Mexico. Not before further life threatening rains arr delivered however.