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Somerset Squall

Super Typhoon Guchol

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The fifth tropical depression of the West Pacific season has formed 260 nautical miles south of the island of Guam, well east of the Philippines. Intensity of the depression is currently 25kts. Shear is low but outflow is currently poor, which is hindering convective activity and keeping the LLC weak at present. The environment is expected to improve over the coming days so strengthening should eventually occur. There is a risk that 05W may degenerate into a remnant low due to the poor outflow, but even if this does occur, the remnants could well reform as the conditions for intensification are much more favourable closer to the Philippines.

05W is moving west-northwestwards along the southern periphery of a subtropical steering ridge. This motion is expected to continue over the next few days, followed by a turn to the northwest and north thereafter as 05W reaches the western extent of the ridge and begins to round the periphery. The timing of the turn is still open to question, as it does depend on how strong 05W becomes over the next few days.

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05W has now been upgraded to Tropical Storm Guchol, with winds now at 35kts. Guchol has a small area of deep convection over the LLC. Outflow is still poor to the north, but this should improve over the next couple days, allowing Guchol to intensify at a slightly faster pace.

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Tropical Storm Guchol will not affect Taiwan soon

A tropical storm that has formed in the Pacific is not likely to exacerbate the weather conditions in Taiwan in the next few days, the Central Weather Bureau said Tuesday. Tropical Storm Guchol remains far away from Taiwan and is therefore unlikely to start affecting the island until Saturday at the earliest, the weather bureau said. There is no need for people to worry at the moment about additional rainfall brought by the outer rim of the storm, the bureau said.

As of Tuesday afternoon, Guchol was centered 2,750 kilometers east-southeast of Taiwan's southern tip and moving at a speed of 19 kilometers per hour in a westerly direction, according the bureau. Guchol, the fourth storm of the 2012 Pacific typhoon season, is packing maximum sustained winds of 65 km per hour, with gusts of up to 90 kph, the bureau said. On its current path, the storm will move close to Taiwan on the weekend if it maintains its speed, but it would take a few days to determine whether it would hit Taiwan directly, the weather bureau said.

Guchol, meaning "spice," was named by the Pacific island nation of Federated States of Micronesia

http://focustaiwan.t...ID=201206120042

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Guchol is a small storm, especially in relation to most West Pacific storms. The storm retains a small area of convection over the LLC, but has now developed some tightly curved banding features. The reason why Guchol is so small is most likely due to the poor outflow over the storm over the last few days. Outflow now however, is vastly improved, and Guchol has strengthened to 40kts. The more favourable outflow pattern, the low shear and warm waters should allow Guchol to intensify at a slightly faster rate over the coming days. JTWC expect Guchol to be an 80kt typhoon by day 5. Future intensity of Guchol is quite uncertain as small storms are prone to fluctuations in intensity, both up and down. They are also very prone to shear. Shear is expected to remain low through the forecast period however, but shear is notoriously difficult to predict. The JTWC's 80kt estimate is a fair one, but due to the uncertainty it could end up being too high or too low.

A recurve scenario is still being forecast by the JTWC to occur east of Luzon and Taiwan. Unfortunately, this is also uncertain due to the models poor handling on Guchol, and the uncertainty on just how vertically deep Guchol will get, which influences how the storm is steered.

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Guchol has continued to strengthen and is now a 70kt cat 1 typhoon. JTWC now expect a peak of 95kts, which may still be a little low IMO.

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It's already making its effects know unfortunately:

27 feared dead as typhoon Guchol hits Philippines. Residents near the sea and on low lying areas told to evacuate

Manila: Nineteen more people were feared dead after they were not yet accounted for from a capsised boat in southwest Philippines, raising to 27 the number of storm-related fatalities as typhoon Guchol veered near central eastern Philippines on Thursday morning, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Coordinating Council (NDRRCC) said. Five were confirmed dead, nineteen others were reported missing, and 22 were rescued at sea when M/V Josille (which carried 46 people including crewmembers) was submerged near Pagawanin Island, El Nido, Palawan, southwestern Philippines on June 12, Undersecretary Benito Ramos, head of NDRRCC, said. Rescue operation in the Palawan Sea is ongoing, he added. Three more were confirmed dead due to heavy rains and flashfloods in five provinces in Mindanao, southern Philippines.

All these incidents occurred prior to the entry of typhoon Guchol in the country’s area of responsibility, Ramos said. Meanwhile, residents near the sea and on low lying areas should evacuate, fishing boats and small seacraft were prohibited from setting sail or leaving port as Typhoon Gutchol was seen at moving at 85km/h with gustiness of 100km/h, 880km east of Huiuan, Eastern Samar as of 9am Thursday, Ramos said.

Typhoon Guchol will be closer to the Visayas and the Bicol region [in central Philippines], at 560km east of Virac, Catanduanes, on Friday, encouraging southwest monsoon rains to bring more rains in the typhoon’s path, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) said. Typhoon Guchol’s estimated rainfall is from 15 -25mm per hour, and 300 km diametre for three more days, from Friday to Monday, Pagasa said, adding the typhoon is expected to leave on Tuesday morning. Because of Typhoon Gutchol’s wide radius, the warnings were sent to residents on the eastern seaboard of southern Luzon (in the northern part), central Visayas, and northeastern Mindanao (in the southern part), Pagasa said,

The storm (although entering the area of central; Visayas and southern Luzon’s Bicol region), will also affect Davao del Norte, Davao del Sur, Davao City, Surigao del Sur, Surigao del Norte, Siargao, and Dinagat islands in the south, Pagasa said.

About 21 typhoons enter the Philippines every year, starting June, the beginning of the rainy season.

http://gulfnews.com/...pines-1.1035926

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Guchol has continued to intensify. Intensity is up to 85kts, making Guchol a cat 2. The eye is cloud obscured but the small central dense overcast is flanked by strong banding in the southern quadrant. The northwestwards turn has not materialised yet but should soon. Further intensification is expected.

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Guchol has become a cat 3 with intensity now at 100kts. The typhoon has a cloud obscured eye, but it is small and well defined. Guchol is moving towards the north now, east of Luzon. This motion is expected to persist, and Guchol should pass east of Taiwan before recurving and becoming extratropical prior to reaching Japan. Further intensification is expected through the next 48hrs, and JTWC are now expecting a peak of 125kts (mid-range cat 4).

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It's odd that HKO are still calling this a severe tropical storm....i noticed the slow down before it curved to the north.

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Guchol definitely isnt a tropical storm now at least lol. A well defined eye has popped out of tge central dense overcast, and Guchol is now a cat 4 with sustained winds of 120kts. Dont be surprised to see Guchol peaking at cat 5 intensity, it has certainly got the looks of a monster!

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Guchol has become the seasons first super typhoon with winds of 130kts. JTWC forecast a peak of 150kts, which is comfortably into cat 5 status.

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Yeh...an hour after i posted they upgraded it to Typhoon, then 2 hours later a severe typhoon. Overnight last night they upgraded it again to a super typhoon.

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Those will be very useful, thanks LFC :)

Guchol peaked at 130kts, a high end cat 4. The typhoon possibly underwent an eyewall replacement cycle, or at least began one, which stopped further intensification. Guchol has now weakened slightly to 125kts, still a robust cat 4 typhoon, with a well defined eye embedded in the central dense overcast. The northern portion of the overcast is eroding a little, and this is a sign that Guchol's northward track is taking it into higher shear. This is set to weaken Guchol steadily until the typhoon reaches cooler waters as it approaches Japan, which will initiate extratropical transition.

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Guchol is turning to the northeast. Intensity has fallen to 90kts as shear and cooler waters negatively impact the typhoon. Extraopical transition is expected to begin in 12hrs, but Guchol will likely still have some tropical characteristics as it makes landfall on the Japinese mainland in just under 24hrs time. Japan are in for a bumpy ride, even when Guchol completes extratropical transition, as the storm will remain powerful.

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Guchol has made landfall midway between Kyoto and Tokyo, Japan and rapidly weakened. Intensity has fallen to 35kts and JTWC have issued their final warning on the storm.

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