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Robbie Garrett

Just For A Bit Of Fun...

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Was looking at the latest CFS run 9 monthly, and wow... blasts from the NORTH, North-east, East and southerly tracking lows, and polar lows, and this for example... from 1st November till - March. oh dear!! smiliz39.gif

cfs-0-5754.png?12

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oh yes please....:D

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I'll bank it.. ; - )

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it'll be interesting to what really happens...

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Was looking at the latest CFS run 9 monthly, and wow... blasts from the NORTH, North-east, East and southerly tracking lows, and polar lows, and this for example... from 1st November till - March. oh dear!! smiliz39.gif

cfs-0-5754.png?12

I must admit to viewing these during the last few weeks especially with the weather

the way its been and although its entertainment value only there has been some

cracking runs similar to the one today that you show in your post.

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today all the runs point to average/cool july..shows no cold over the winter months..seems relatively dry and mild.

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today all the runs point to average/cool july..shows no cold over the winter months..seems relatively dry and mild.

Jan and Feb looking grim on today's run....December charts would make December '10 look like BBQ weather though!

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i didn't look at December but yes looks a tad fresh

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Just had a look, surely not again?? warm end to September.

cfsnh-0-2520.png?18

But Merry Xmas...

cfsnh-0-4680.png?18

cfsnh-0-4728.png?18

Round 2 - Beast from the east!!

cfsnh-0-5586.png?18

cfsnh-0-5628.png?18

Unlikely all to verify, but as the topic says.. a bit of fun!! One thing it does hint at though, is a possible good amount of Northern blocking and a Southerly tracking jet stream. Nothing specific.

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Hi Robbie

By coincidence I've just posted something similar over on TWO. Just for a bit of fun I,ve been checking the CFS nine month runs every day for the past two months and they fall 70/30 in favour of a winter with substabtial cold or very cold spells, indeed some weeks it has been as high as 80.20 in favour of substantial cold or or very cold spells.

I am aware of the caveats with regards to the model but it is still statistically interesting that with a whole range of different starting data over the last two months it has never the less so far retained a 70/30 bias in favour of colder overall conditions than last winter.

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Yes please. That has a very July 2006 look about it.

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Yes please. That has a very July 2006 look about it.

not really the high pressue is too far west and south very much a northerly drift...looks more like Aug 2006

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not really the high pressue is too far west and south very much a northerly drift...looks more like Aug 2006

Its changed since my post above. The chart showing now is morebad.gif for my location.

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There's no point. ..The end of December heralds the end of the world.

Lool, completely missed me... well if the Northern Hemisphere goes into Ice Age mode.. you never know?

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Lool, completely missed me... well if the Northern Hemisphere goes into Ice Age mode.. you never know?

Ha! I'd love to see more snow, especially for the Greater London area but an ice age would start to bore me after awhile.lazy.gif

If it does happen i'd just like to say in advance, it was nice knowing you and i enjoyed your thread.

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Further to my earlier posts regarding the CFS 4 x daily 9 month runs and my checking of them for Dec Jan feb next winter,

The results are as follows I have divided the runs into

Mild ( ie no wintery weather at all in the month)

Mixed ( in the main a 50/50 mix between cold and mild conditions)

Cold or very cold ( At least 75% of the month being wintery or very wintery)

For December Mild 13% January Mild 11% February Mild 9%

Mixed 57% Mixed 53% Mixed 45%

Cold/very cold 30% Cold/Very Cold 36% Cold/ Very Cold 46%

I leave it to better statisticians than me to make of these results what they will.

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Latest update from my daily perusal of CFS 9 months runs for the coming winter shows the following. ( see previous post for defintiions)

December - Mild 11% (down 2%) Mixed 62% (up 5%) Cold or very cold 25% (down 5%)

January - Mild 13% (up 2%) Mixed 52% (down 1%) Cold or very cold 35% (down 1%)

February - Mild 6% (down 3%) Mixed 45% (no change) Cold or very cold 49% (up 3%)

A note of interest is that a good number of the mixed months have substantial cold spells in them but they don't quite last long enough to make the month fit the cold or very cold criteria ( ie at least 75% of the days in the month being cold or very cold overall)

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All these charts making me exciting, anyway guys if the world comes to an end then guys we all should all link up and arange a netweather pub night.

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Just for a little bit of fun for Winter 2012/13

cfsnh-0-3966.png?18

cfsnh-0-4128.png?18

cfsnh-0-4158.png?18

Whilst this a billion miles away, CFS always indicates at least one massive northerly blast.... one to watch maybe??

Seem's fairly decent.

cfsnh-0-4320.png?18

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Winter is nearly here!!!!!!!!!!1!!!!!!11!11!

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