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UK Convective General Discussion & Forecasts - June 6th 2012>


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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

Thanks Aj for clearing that up. I tend to acumulate these 'useless' facts and bits of info. Such as all the airport meta code, but I find it comes in handy when reading technicle forecasts and such like.

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Posted
  • Location: Beverley, E Yorks, 19m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder - not necessarily at the same time!
  • Location: Beverley, E Yorks, 19m ASL

Still raining and still no thunder.....sigh! Now up to 46mm of rain, although the rain has become lighter but it is windier now.

Really does remind me of living in Wales in the Autumn: anybody else think the weather is autumnal in nature?

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Posted
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire

Risk of some convergence along Southern counties tomorrow pm but probably only sharp showers rather than anything thundery,

although much more appealing from a sky watching perspective than today!

Really does remind me of living in Wales in the Autumn: anybody else think the weather is autumnal in nature?

Without a doubt!

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Posted
  • Location: Beverley, E Yorks, 19m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder - not necessarily at the same time!
  • Location: Beverley, E Yorks, 19m ASL

According to the radar it seems that some very heavy showers have developed out over the North Sea. They are not electrified at the moment but appear to be increasing in area and growing more intense. This activity appears to be near the centre of the low pressure system.

I remember one night last summer watching storms flashing away out over the sea. When I got home I checked the radar and they were a similar distance away, well over a hundred miles. I guess it is the tops of the storms that you can see...

No chance of that tonight though: still cloudy, windy and rainy!

RANDOM THOUGHT: I guess if it is the top of the storms it might just be possible to see some sprites. I have never seen them but I know they can be seen from the tops of distant storms when the conditions are ideal. Maybe one day....

Edited by Muffelchen
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Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

I would say the best chance of any storms tomorrow would be in a line from around Glasgow to Hull in the afternoon, and if the sun can get to work then the chances may be fairly good. I would say areas just NW of the Humber for the best of all. Of course, the best of all may just be a few heavy showers but worth keeping an eye on anyhow :)

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Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)

Risk of thunder tomorow? well this evenings clouds and downpours about had some nice structures to them, certainly some bounce in there. I think saturday is expected to be warmer in the south so some help to push those clouds into shape then!

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

Large sferic just then, sounded like a +Cg strike. quite far away though.

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Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

Sferics and powerful radar returns between York and Beverley (possibly over Market Weighton). As I said yesterday, areas NW of the Humber look best placed today.

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Posted
  • Location: East Devon
  • Location: East Devon

GFS precip and CAPE charts looking pretty decent for the SW on Monday afternoon, probably the best this year so far on the 06Z run, but then I predicted this weeks ago, seeing as I have a 2 hour 30 minute exam Monday afternoon! rolleyes.gif

Similar time of year to the 15th June 2009, guess what happened then, yep, you've got it, What turned out to be about the only decent thunderstorm of the whole year, and probably the 2010 too(!!), was just about perfectly timed for my exam then, with the storm starting just after and ending just before my exam did..

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Posted
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but mild south-westeries in winter
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl

Sferics and powerful radar returns between York and Beverley (possibly over Market Weighton). As I said yesterday, areas NW of the Humber look best placed today.

Some heavy showers developing not far from here too.. guess we'll wait and see.

GFS precip and CAPE charts looking pretty decent for the SW on Monday afternoon, probably the best this year so far on the 06Z run, but then I predicted this weeks ago, seeing as I have a 2 hour 30 minute exam Monday afternoon! rolleyes.gif

Similar time of year to the 15th June 2009, guess what happened then, yep, you've got it, What turned out to be about the only decent thunderstorm of the whole year, and probably the 2010 too(!!), was just about perfectly timed for my exam then, with the storm starting just after and ending just before my exam did..

Wow I'd love a repeat of 15th June 2009 - what a fantastic storm, no storm since has come close.

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Posted
  • Location: Selby 15 miles south of York
  • Location: Selby 15 miles south of York

Looks quite an impressive line of storms building in the Holme on Spalding Moor/Market Weighton area

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

15th june 2009 was a lovely sunny day here as I remember, what a surprise. In fact all of that june's storms missed here.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

Surprised it's so quiet....the NE is looking great at the moment...is everyone asleep or abroad??

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Posted
  • Location: Stanley, County Durham.
  • Weather Preferences: Anything Extreme!
  • Location: Stanley, County Durham.

Surprised it's so quiet....the NE is looking great at the moment...is everyone asleep or abroad??

Yeah I've been watching that, looks amazing just north of York with lots of strikes and torrential rain.

There could be some really high rainfall totals too looking at the movement of that very intense line of rain.

Wish I was at my girlfriends house 10 miles east of York, if I'd known this was going to happen we could have had a weekend there!

Edited by multi cellular thunderstorm
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Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire

Thats quite a line of showers approaching here from the north-west. We've missed the majority of the heavy ones in the last couple of days (1.8mm yesterday and 4.0mm so far today) so it'll be interesting to see what sort of totals can be had from this band.

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Posted
  • Location: Denby,Derbyshire,90m/295ft asl De5
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/Clear and Frosty/Snow Showers
  • Location: Denby,Derbyshire,90m/295ft asl De5

Well just driven through Driffield on the way to Filey and been hit by torrential rain and seen at least 4 decent lightning flashes and 2 c to g strikes!!

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Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

Surprised it's so quiet....the NE is looking great at the moment...is everyone asleep or abroad??

Too far south for the likes of me Harry.. Anyway a Northeasterly breeze has returned to these parts scuppering any chance of convection along the coastal fringes...again..!!

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Posted
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67

We getting 1 or 2 showers here but we seem to be stuck in some sort of gap and avoiding the biggies (They going in a NW to SE direction). Still time for a downpour though

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Posted
  • Location: Shipton by Beningbrough, York
  • Location: Shipton by Beningbrough, York

Lovely storm here (North of York) lots of IC no rain though

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Posted
  • Location: Beverley, E Yorks, 19m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder - not necessarily at the same time!
  • Location: Beverley, E Yorks, 19m ASL

Not checked the radar yet..... but have been out working in the garden since 10am. Lots to report, including quite a decent thunderstorm which has just departed in the direction of Hull. This is the fourth storm of the day but the only one to make a direct hit.

First heavy shower was about 11am this morning but there was no thunder. However, immediately afte rthis had passed a cell developed to the NE of here that made plenty of noise: I couldn't see any lightning but I could hear the sprites on Talk Sport blum.gif About half an hour later, middayish, athere was another storm on the line that developed to the NE of here and this gave a few rumbles for about fiftenn minutes. There were also some rumbles to the north from another cell around 13:00, again I saw no lightning but lots of sprites on the radio.

Fnally from about 14:30 the number of sprites on the radio increased dramatically and were gradually getting louder. I could just about see the top of a blown-out anvil above me thorugh the low level cloud. Eventually the sky to the NW got dartker and I saw my first lighning accompanied by very loud crackes on the radio. The thunder was frequent from this cell until about 15:30 although, as I said, this has now passed away towards Hull and Hedon (Reef?).

All in all a good day and with the possibility of more to come. Off to check the radar now.......

Muff

PS: I suggest a new motto for the English summer (2012): three rainy days followed by a thunderstorm!

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Posted
  • Location: Beverley, E Yorks, 19m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder - not necessarily at the same time!
  • Location: Beverley, E Yorks, 19m ASL

Just checked the radar - WOW! Reminds me of Thames snow streamers and it is all headed right this way by the looks of it. All electrified too. Gonna be some interesting rainfall totals around here metthinks.

RESPECT to whoever said last night the best places for thunder today were on a ine from Glasgow to Hull. The line seems to be from Carlisle to Spurn wth a few scattered showers in Scotland but a brilliant predction nonetheless!

EDIT: It was Supacell LINK. More power to your elbow!!

Edited by Muffelchen
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Posted
  • Location: Stanley, County Durham.
  • Weather Preferences: Anything Extreme!
  • Location: Stanley, County Durham.

I would say the best chance of any storms tomorrow would be in a line from around Glasgow to Hull in the afternoon, and if the sun can get to work then the chances may be fairly good. I would say areas just NW of the Humber for the best of all. Of course, the best of all may just be a few heavy showers but worth keeping an eye on anyhow smile.png

As Muffelchen said very good prediction by Supacell yesterday ^^^

Looks like tomorrow the risk is a bit further south, hopefully nearer to Nottingham. Any chance you could predict a line of storms from Merseyside, through Nottingham to the Wash Supacell? :)

Back to today and still following the radar, looks like rainfall totals of up to 50mm so far in some spots, and 300+ lightning strikes mainly in N Yorkshire.

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Posted
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but mild south-westeries in winter
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl

The Met have another warning out for northern Engand for tomorrow

Edited by Aaron
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Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District

The river Ouse in central York looking like it'll burst its banks any minute now, another foot ontop of what's already coming down river and the floodplains will be at work once again.

http://www.farsondigitalwatercams.com/live-webcams/north/Ouse/York/

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