Tropical Cyclone Kuena

[Somerset Squall]

An off season tropical cyclone has formed northeast of Madagascar. Convection is.deep over the LLC and some good banding features are developing. Intensity is 35kts. Some strengthening is expected in the short term as shear is low, but this rises to the west, which is where 20S is headed. JTWC expect a peak of 45kts

[Somerset Squall]

20S has been given the name Kuena, and intensity has risen to 50kts. Kuena has an impressive satellite signature, especially for an off season storm. Shear will soon rise as Kuena passes north of Madagascar, so time is running out for the storm to strengthen.

[Somerset Squall]

Shear has really made mince meat of Kuena today. Itensity has fallen to 35kts, and though the LLC is still well defined, it is completely exposed from the shrinking area of convection. If the convection doesn't reform near the LLC then Kuena will be declared a remnant low this afternoon or tonight.

[Somerset Squall]

Kuena was declared a remnant low yesterday afternoon. The remnant low is unravelling under continued high shear, and redevelopment is not expected.