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Nick F

Chase Day 26 - Mon 4th June - Tx Panhandle/ern Nm

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About to leave our overnight stay in Elk City in western Oklahoma and head west into the Texas Panhandle to chase the Slight Risk area shown by SPC. Risk is for hail and damaging winds. Supercells will likely struggle to form though, given the presence of an upper ridge, but we will remain open-minded that we may see something interesting, such as a dust storm blowing out from the outflow like we saw on the first chase day.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Hopefully we won't end up on a wild goose chase like yesterday - when the models and SPC kept chopping and changing over where the most severe storms would likely break out.

Then tomorrow we will probably have a travel day and head north towards the northern Plains, as severe storm potential begins to pick up here from mid-week and into the weekend.

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DAILY BRIEFING

APPS FOR THE SNEEZE

TOM

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The upper features are very slack but the surface pressure pattern at present (from SPC severe wx page) shows best potential around Lubbock TX, moisture inflow from southeast may get some powerful storms going as a slightly drier air mass over eastern NM is drawn into the weak vortex. I would be optimistic about storm development in that region today, slightly northwest of LBB looks most promising. Current cloud debris from earlier activity should continue to erode and drift southeast but another area to monitor would be south central OK which is not in slight risk zone on maps but could turn out that way later.

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Would it not pay to drop today's threat and head north into the northern plain into some possible threat of some more action further north over the next few days??

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We're on the road heading towards Amarillo...again! IHOP for lunch as I've not had one yet :D Slight risk been extended further south so hoping for some action before we drive up north tomorrow. 5-600 mile drive tomorrow is easy do able and will get us in to central Nebraska territory and under their See Text risk too :D

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Heading west out of Amarillo to take a peek at some storms that have fired. They're west moving which is really odd

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Todays creature we found as we left the hotel this morning....and no I don't mean Tom rofl.gif

post-4649-0-83073200-1338845836_thumb.jp

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Todays creature we found as we left the hotel this morning....and no I don't mean Tom rofl.gif

post-4649-0-83073200-1338845836_thumb.jp

You could strap it on your head as a hard hat if there's any big hail!

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Nice storm with some awesome lightning on the way up in Boise City, OK. Guests got some great viedo as we were stood under a canopy :D Few shotgun bolts too!

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Overnighting in Lamar, CO. Heading north tomorrow

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Has GPS lost the chase, it shows you as being N of Crawford, OK?

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    • By Tom Lynch
      Message from Nick
      Overnight stay in Liberal Kansas, home of Wizard Of Oz - planning to head east for a few 100 miles towards SE Kansas where moisture/CAPE will be greatest and hopefully get on some slow-moving supercells later. Better chance today of seeing large hail, given 2000-3000 j/kg CAPE forecast. Also, an outflow boundary is expected to move out from overnight MCS which has moved east out of eastern KS, this will make it more favourable for tornadoes to form than the last few days. So fingers crossed.
      Nick
      Daily briefing

      Tom
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