Atlantic Storms And Lows - Summer 2012

[Liam J]

Not a sight I thought I would see in June either!!!

http://forum.netweat...00#entry2314474

WOW impressive, hope everyone was safe?

June is the new Autumn for 2012... Blizzards in August anyone? LOL

Not much wind here but we are sitting under some very heavy rainfall ATM in the centre of the depression.

[toggerob]

What a day, to be looking out the window and seeing nothing but grey skies and raindrops lash against the windowpanes. 29mm has fallen alone today with more on the way from Wales, gusts over 40mph and doesn't look like things will be clearing up until tomorrow morning at least.

Luckily the football is on, so that's some positive today.

[Coast]

WOW impressive, hope everyone was safe?

Yep, just some very soiled underwear!

[ZONE 51]

It was an Autumn feeling day for sure, gales, the leaves and branches all over the ground, and the fast moving sky, very mild air, heavy drizzle, very rough day.

Does this mean summers going to be like this we might think, wet and windy? what about the Jet stream?, it's not in the right place for a nice summer at the moment. Don't give up hope just yet, the larger scale signals indicate an improving picture, not to complain about the rain hey! we have topped up well now, unless we get a few months of little rain then we should just be ok!

The next low is on it's way, this is to hit on sunday and give a lot of rainfall, il post a rainfall chart in a bit.

[ZONE 51]

Sunday - WET in the South and a risk elsewhere but the system is shown to track through southern areas

some unstable air wrapped around this low as seen on the lifted index that is in the yellow..

So it's watching the track of this one for thundery activity

Edited June 9, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Evening thunder]

Bit late posting, but here's some video I took of the sea down at Sidmouth (Jacobs Ladder) on the evening of the 7th:

Haven't been down there when it was quite this bad before, especially not in June!

This place was featured on BBC spotlight showing a beach hut (which was apparently under the ladder) being lifted and destroyed by the waves, but that must have happened before I got there. You can see what is probably some remnants of it by the side of the walk way in the 2nd clip. No one could have walked round the path in front of the cliffs that's for sure.

We also had 32mm of rain here which is more than was generally predicted for this location in the previous 2 days.

Edited June 10, 2012 by Stormmad26

[Bluebreezer54]

Great footage there Stormad26, thanks for sharing it.

[johnholmes]

Wise decision John, don't forget the duty free!

just back-the weather in Paris and the Loire valley bore distinct resemblance in all aspects to here. Even worse Sunday it -ssed down most of the day-my Davis showed 20.6C here, but yes the red wine did ease the pain thanks!

[Bobby]

A nasty little low coming up

A ~986mb low in June is pretty impressive. Winds shouldn't be as bad as the last low but still rather windy in the west.

A fair bit of rain too followed by a rash of heavy showers or longer spells of rain.

Edited June 12, 2012 by Barb-

[Bobby]

Met Office have now issued severe weather warnings for the storm on Friday/Saturday..

A deep depression currently developing over the eastern Atlantic will move slowly northeastwards across the UK on Friday and Saturday, bringing another dose of very unsettled weather to many regions. The associated frontal zone will spread northwards across the southern half of the UK later on Thursday, bringing with it persistent rain. This rain then stalls over parts of the northern half of the UK on Friday and Saturday, leaving showery conditions in its wake over the southern half of the UK, some of these showers heavy and persistent.

Meanwhile, very windy conditions, with gales and gusts up to 60 MPH in exposed areas, are expected to accompany this unsettled weather over southwestern UK during Friday. Showers and rain are expected to widely produce 15-30mm of rain across a large part England and Wales between late Thursday and late Saturday. Locally parts of southern and western Wales and the high ground in southwest England can expect 60-80mm of rain during this 48 hour period.

[Coast]

Met Office have now issued severe weather warnings for the storm on Friday/Saturday..

Bugger!!! here we go again!!!!

This is the worrying one from GFS:

and on into Friday night and Saturday morning......

Let's hope the temporary repairs to our factory roof from last Friday's events hold!!!!

[Coast]

GFS progression through Friday and overnight into Saturday (max gusts):

[pyrotech]

Except meto the models seem to be deepening this low coming in late Thursday and stalling over West UK

Be interesting to firstly monitor the approach using buoy reports to how deep this gets in relation to forecast models. This could be quite nast gales with trees in full leaf and sodden ground.

As the storm moves in then rainfall totals will be the issue.

Areas most at risk are already sodden. Monitoring the rainfall and live reports would be interesting.

Tomorrow i will do comparrisons of buoy reports to forecast pressure charts to see if Meto have under cooked this or not.

Before then im on night shift so anyone else able to do that, and post here would be appreciated.

Floodwarn.co.uk has live buoy reports, possibly best Buoy to monitor will be K2 in the south west approaches.

Anyone in Wales and southwest can give actual weather updates as the rain moves in.

[Bobby]

Yes I can imagine more flooding. I'm expecting 2-3 inches here in the Valleys and I can see some places getting 100mm+.

NMM precip accumulation over Thur-Friday.

60-70mm showing over my house and quite a few others in the hills of Wales and SW England.

There also looks possible another nasty low early next week.

GEM:

Rain:

Some of the GEFS ensembles show something even nastier, there's certainly potential for some rapid deepening

One to watch as it could be another big soaking on top of all that's gone before.

Edited June 13, 2012 by Barb-

[Richard McCarthy]

The latest UK Mesoscale Discussions show the following;

[ZONE 51]

We now watch for the next Atlantic storm system to move in, quite incredible as we are in June, what we normally do from late Sept-March we are doing today, and that is watching the Atlantic for deep low pressure systems, we are of course looking for high pressure to and that is something we should be getting now only briefly brushed a side with rain fronts, and then returning again, it's not that 50mph gusts are inpossible as we can get them through thunderstorms, and local large rainfall totals are likely when we get thunderstorms or downpours through the summer, but what is different is how we are recieving this weather! and also just the amount of widespread floods that are being experienced is very unusual to for summer and even other seasons, and to look at yet another system heading in is quite amazing really.

It all starts tonight as the low winding up to release it's fury across our shores once again, most areas will see up to an inch of rainfall wheres areas like Wales would likely see several inches of rain, and to add to the problems we could see gales developing across the Southwest and these spreading across many Southern parts through the next few days, some unstable air is wrapped around this system so we can expect thundery downpours, areas in the North and West keeping the rainfall for a long period of time, wheres in the SE fro example we see that rain heading off by friday early morning but swifly followed by some big thundery convective cells through friday, maybe these arriving in the early hours of friday, but some unstable air moving across many areas.

I have created a warning map to show you where i expect the most prolonged rainfall and floods, and where the gales are likely to develop.

Alot to keep watch on, with some interesting weather but a big concern with the current flooding situation, and i am worried for those areas that could get the floods or adding to the existing floods.

Stay tuned to the forecasts and warnings.

ESS

Edited June 14, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Aaron]

Certainly looking very wet over Thursday and Friday.. expecting 20mm and above here.

[Coast]

GFS has that low just parked up over the West coast of Ireland tomorrow and it has an awful lot of moisture in it:

It wants to dump some of that on its Eastern flank, across the Scottish boarders:

The interesting (used in a hobby sense, not wanting to see damage or loss) charts for me are the shear/tornado ones. Tomorrow has a lot of turbulence and activity going on up there:

It looks like some of the worst of it may pass to our South into France:

But as the day progresses, the South coast is yet again going to get more rain:

The low doesn't really start shifting until Saturday lunchtime, slowing moving East into the middle of the country and still dragging moisture around:

Wind gusts till relatively high through Saturday morning and beyond:

and more helical activity up in the air, right over my head!!!

Peak time for winds varies on where you are:

Ireland and the West coast of England+Scotland:

In the South and South East, it looks more like Saturday morning into early afternoon:

Another very interesting period of weather coming up, more akin to later in the year. Lets hope that there is no damage or loss with the next batch please.

[Coast]

Here's the pesky jet setting itself up for a full frontal attack down the English Channel:

[Coast]

Some snippets from the ESTOFEX forecast I put into the convective thread earlier:

Southern British Isles to northern France

Strong cyclogenesis is expected to the west of the British Isles at Thursday. Ahead of the low, a southerly flow and strong low-level vertical wind shear will evolve. Some storms may develop in the evening hours across northern France where low-level moisture is highest and CAPE is expected. These storms may produce a tornado given the strong LLS. Chance is rather limited, though. During the night, the cold front will cross the region from the west. Along the frontal rain band, some embedded convective cells are expected. The strong vertical wind shear could be beneficial for tornadoes, but bad timing and weak low-level buoyancy is expected to limit the potential.

http://www.estofex.org/

It's going to be very messy out there:

[pyrotech]

Buoy reports for 8am today

K2 Buoy

Waves 3.5 m

pressure 996mb

pressure tendency - falling rapidly by about 5mb an hour for last few hours

K1 buoy

wave ht 2.9m

pressure 991mb

falling rapidly by 3.7mb

Source for live buoy reports http://www.floodwarn.co.uk/buoys.htm

[johnholmes]

hi pyro

The pressure fall reported each hour is over a 3 hour period not 1 hour

Edited June 14, 2012 by johnholmes

[johnholmes]

a very good sat picc available, link below, showing the whole deepening weather system-courtesy of Dundee Uni;if you have not already signed on you may have to do so to see the picc, its free and very quick-well worth the minimal effort doing this and then bookmark for furture use.

http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/abin/piccygridhtml/avhrr/2012/6/14/0853/ch5.jpg

[Richie V]

System winding up loverly now.

http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html

[johnholmes]

yes it is probably the best available sequence of infra red cloud patterns for us on the web. It does show how weather systems develop, move and decay very well-well worth bookmarking.

the link below is useful for seeing weather systems deepening close to the UK

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/United_Kingdom.shtml

Edited June 14, 2012 by johnholmes